TWG CLXV - The Wine In Front Of Me - Game Thread

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Do you think it's a coincidence?

what is a coincidence? sorry i dont see the question

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

what is a coincidence? sorry i dont see the question

I tried to give a reasonable explanation as to why everyone outside of my wolf pool was town.

If I was wrong, I think I would be more confused about the town players in my town pile.

[Hakulyte]

Well, I guess I could be wrong and misread someone. It's just that, I have a lot of trouble feeling that way.

[Hakulyte]

I don't think a bunch of wolves ganged up with me on that Sunfan L-1 by example.

I legit think people are tired of all my fantasies and want to either wake me up to reality or be like "wtf he's right".

[Hakulyte]

I think the objective best lynch right now is Litodude. He's linked to both Sunfan/Charu fmpov and will make the next phase very clear.

Charu seems to be fine with voting Sunfan so, having Litodude down would really make him look a lot worse because he was with him with the setup talk.

Of course, I have no problem with voting the other two if players feel more confident with one of them.

If Litodude flips town, that kinda clears Charu, but keeps Sunfan as a question mark.
If Sunfan flips town. Litodude/Charu is still unclear.
If Charu flips town, Sunfan/Litodude is still unclear.

I also think that the PR hunting itself is my biggest piece of evidence in terms of "objective calls".

You can't deny that 3 town PRs against 3 vanilla wolves is very likely to generate a situation that asks wolves to find a creative way to deal with PRs.

I think the answer to that is in Litodude's game.

I don't think the lower activity players would be doing this well as wolves.

[Hakulyte]

Oh, YoshL found a funny one. #3200

How did I miss that post wut-

Time to reread.

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Time to reread go sleep.

ftfy (brb in 8-10 hours)
^ mentioning this because people thought I was avoiding thread yesterday, but it's just my sleep schedule being really off atm.

[FreezinIce]

yeah im going to sleep then work. ill check thread at work every now and then, hopefully people go over my wagon analysis and come up with their own conclusions and share/compare them

[FreezinIce]

also no i dont think its a coincidence

[Hakulyte]

I guess sleep will have to wait a bit.

About #3424 @ raeko's read list. That'd be cool, but I'm not in a rush here.

@Litodude - #2227 Avoid that too for my sanity because I automatically assume wolf logic even if it's a joke.

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

For mellon: I still feel she is probably town but I really wasn't a fan of the sunfan tunnel at eod. Maybe just rushed + irl stuff but basically . Her initial suspicions on sunfan are "bad vibes" and I don't feel that it's a very strong argument (I can't.. or should say I don't want to verify the whole pocketing and self-meta thing, I need to sleep soon and I'll be busy tmrw till night). I think both people are quite tunneled in on one another and it just reminds me of the whole ordeal between AA and Shado. They both ended up being town. Are we sure that this might not be the case here?
Between just the two if I had to choose right now, I'd probably take mellon over sunfan. I might be a LITTLE biased from last game. Somehow her relentlessness on sunfan makes me feel she wouldn't do this as wolf. Sunfan hasn't swayed me hard in either direction.

Well, I clearly favorize mellon over Sunfan because I can see where she's coming from. I'm having a similar hunch myself as well and it's mostly a long list of small insignificant things that would be easily discarded. I have a few "tower posts" where I tried to express these things, but they were mostly ignored. I still think it's the right choice. The hardest part for me is to get a vote behind it.

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

I still didn't like yoshl at the first eod, nor the second eod. It really felt like he was prodding for the kill (#2896 comes to mind), and his argument "being inactive at eod is a sign of scum" argument in #2986 I don't agree with at all. I also didn't like his rationale for "if inD flips green mellon looks like shit". Does wolf mellon try that hard to defend a town? Not to mention he says she didn't substantiate her read but she did (she felt that universal scumread is a bad sign, as did freezin), though to be fair it wasn't 'universal' technically at that point. The whole exchange with yoshl at the beginning of today didn't feel right to me either. "vibes" I guess.

YoshL just moved from null to slight town lean for this slip find. #3200
I'm a bit confused because he looked interested to lynch raeko, but he found something against her counterwagon (Sunfan). Kind of curious about where he stands at this point.

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

Everything about Haku's locked worldview (I forgot to mark the post number but it was the one where he basically calls out the sunfan/lito/charu team dynamic and never sees a W/T interaction and thus they must all be wolves) rubs me the wrong way but not in the sense that I think he's a wolf. Regarding him saying lito is the safest lynch... I feel like nobody talked about him? At all near eod? How would he be safe? I understand him going on Freezin to some extent (again, that Charu vote was extremely bizarre) although he's flaring up a bit much for it. As for leading the town I don't really have the time to do that, I subbed in quite reluctantly knowing I would be busy today (which didn't matter) and tmrw (which does). I'll try my best on the weekend though, I'll make Nino proud

If I remember correctly, you were in Classic's Man with me (the previous game) and I spent a lot of time doing pairings like that in hope to find teams due to all the confusion around Shado/Xel in that game. I kind of liked comparing sample and testing my own logic doing so. I tried to do it for the laughs in this game and I eventually started to feel like I found something unusual with interactions. Especially how Sunfan, Charu and Litodude "solved" each others in D0. The process felt too easy and straightforward. They posted in a way that made me think that they didn't try to solve each others really. They just like magically town read each others and never really questioned each others much. Litodude looked a little more towny with his initial vote on Sunfan, but he quickly discarded it on a whim into this D0 EoD. NAGL imo.

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

I think it's really unsettling L-1 formed so fast on sunfan. The "next night phase" thing though... uh.

Nah, I really think they're starting to see that the game is not holding up together anymore.

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

For now, my only real scumlean is yoshl, sunfan sitting close to the edge but possible salty bias. I'll look at other people later. I think I missed the majority of the inD flak, so I'm gonna break down the people who voted him, try to corroborate with the d0, and see if I find anything fishy. Tmrw evening though.

inDheart is a logical lynch because he could have been a slanking wolf. Time Travel is the only game where I saw him play like this.

In every other games, he was different and more active. So, voting inDheart does make sense from an objective point of view.

I'm just being a meme because I'm happy my world didn't break, but I could have been wrong here.

See #3458 & #3459 for my thoughts on YoshL/roundbox.

[thesunfan]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

what i should be asking myself at this point is if there is any association between (Lito, Charu, YoshL, and roundbox) and (Mello and haku)

Lets see

Charu + haku = nope
YoshL + haku = nope
roundbox + haku = maybe but probably not
lito + haku = maybe but probably not

mello + charu = maybe, im getting the feeling shes getting the blindreper from charu (from this post)
mello + yoshl = probably not, preemptive bussing maybe but nah
mello + lito = probably not, he went hard on her way earlier than he had to unless he was going for the hard bus.
mello + roundbox = its more likely than these other pairings, hes lightly thrown shade at her only so far

I think Yoshl + Haku shouldn't be under "nope"

Yoshl probably would've played that entrance roughly the same regardless of his alignment, and I could def see him despising wolfing with Haku

[Charu]

I'm suddenly Freezin's lynch.

Cool

[Charu]

Originally Posted by thesunfan

I think Yoshl + Haku shouldn't be under "nope"

Yoshl probably would've played that entrance roughly the same regardless of his alignment, and I could def see him despising wolfing with Haku

Don't think YoshL would continue to antagonize Haku further into the game if they were wolfin'.

[thesunfan]

Took Haku off ignore
saw that he said that Lito was "magically" townreading me on d0
not a good first look if you want to stay off ignore, Haku

The part about me posting next night phase was I was playing on DM at the time, and I was reading the thread/making posts when it was the night phase on DM

I have explained this already. I do think its a funny post in hindsight though.

[AragakiAyase]

Votes from post 3090 to post 3473
Night in 33:04:42
---

• Votes -- Lynch -- Voters
• 2 -- thesunfan -- FreezinIce (47), mellonxcollie (25)
• 1 -- Litodude -- Hakulyte (125)
• 1 -- mellonxcollie -- YoshL (22)
• 1 -- unvote -- Charu (69)
• 3 -- not voting -- roundbox (18), thesunfan (23), Wineandbread (1)
• 1 -- Error -- Litodude (53)

[Litodude]

idk why haku didn't die last night outside of being pocketed or being a wolf

if he's blue he'll flip but he should have done that at the start of d1 anyway

everyone knew he was skirting around it like an idiot

http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...postcount=1611

if i'm right he was lying d1 bcuz he felt safe about it

if i'm wrong and he doesn't flip he's a wolf.

just to be 100% sure of myself haku

[Litodude]

yeah i think this is the best play glad i slept on it

[roundbox]

time to parse those quotes

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by Litodude

yeah i think this is the best play glad i slept on it

You should read last game where he was consensus town yet he lived till the end of the game.

People leave haku alive because he causes confusion and can't lead a lynch

[Litodude]

but just think about it:

if haku is blue and gets votes he'll flip himself.

the sooner he does it, the less chaos there is for humans instead of having a clusterfuck of votes near eod.
i could then focus elsewhere.

if haku is pr he's played this incredibly poorly.

if haku ISN'T a pr and is a wolf, it's extremely wolfy of him to vote on the insta rush at the start of d2 with raeko and you and charu. but we'll get there when we get there