TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD

[Vendetta21]

where did you get the idea there were non-PR wolves?

[ShadoWolfe]

Holy shit this turned into a treasure trove.
@Tokzic is wolfchat night-only or 24/7? Did wolves have access to n0 wolfchat? Are non-PR "vanilla" wolves a possible role?

[meno_rocks123]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

howabout a bayesian analysis of how wrong i was going to be on the outset (somewhere around above a supermajority of the time)

Thanks for making me look up a word, but it turns out that it's a moot point. We've received three pieces of concrete info this game:
-inD is red
-You claimed seer while peeking lito VT
-Lito claimed seer

A red cardflip doesn't teach us anything. It doesn't increase the probability of vigi or the probability that a wolf even exists in this game. All it tells us is that a vigi or a wolf could be in this game. That's it.

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

it's still clear you haven't understood it but i basically point out that there was only a 40% best-case chance i wouldn't be wrong (and known by another player to be wrong) before considering picking lito, which introduces a second compound chance of being wrong (37.5% on average) of calling someone a vanillager who wasn't.

And that's a hell of a cover to have prepped in case you have now fucked up and you need to deflect your claim.

[Vendetta21]

there are non-PR wolves, mike?

[Vendetta21]

i didn't prep it i'm a certified quality engineer i can do statistics on a dime when i need to because thats what im trained in

[meno_rocks123]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

where did you get the idea there were non-PR wolves?

VT isn't in the list of potential roles, so it's pretty safe to assume that VW is just as possible.

[meno_rocks123]

And I may not be a stats engineer, but apparently I'm a civil engineer now and I had to take a sweet intro to stats course to get where I am.

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by meno_rocks123

VT isn't in the list of potential roles, so it's pretty safe to assume that VW is just as possible.

VT is listed as a possible role by the fact that the entire VT PM is at the bottom of the OP. There's nothing there about VWs

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by meno_rocks123

VT isn't in the list of potential roles, so it's pretty safe to assume that VW is just as possible.

yeah it is

[Vendetta21]

whereas your assumption isnt safe. it could or couldnt be wrong but the post suggests all wolves have PRs because only one of them can use their power each night

[Vendetta21]

like you have to assume VTs

but assuming vanilla wolves? seems like a stretch

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

like you have to assume VTs

but assuming vanilla wolves? seems like a stretch

It was a stretch for sure, and he kind of skewed his numbers in his favor with it, but I think his point was that it's easy to throw numbers around.

Can you answer my questions about SHC please?

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by meno_rocks123

Thanks for making me look up a word, but it turns out that it's a moot point. We've received three pieces of concrete info this game:
-inD is red
-You claimed seer while peeking lito VT
-Lito claimed seer

A red cardflip doesn't teach us anything. It doesn't increase the probability of vigi or the probability that a wolf even exists in this game. All it tells us is that a vigi or a wolf could be in this game. That's it.

well it doesn't teach us any facts. it does tell us something though, and then we have to surmise what it means. i didn't say i knew the flip was a vigi, i said the balance of probability suggested, and i gave the reason why: coordinated effort is more likely to be successful than isolated effort. that was the entire logic, it was very simple.

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

I'm not seeing more complexity and intent than the situation merits. I've looked at it from the simplest of reasonings, "V just faked his peek in an easily misconstrued fashion out of laziness", to the level of complexity bordering on tinfoiling. In terms of incentive, factoring in human willingness to reduce the required amount of effort as a wolf doesn't help or detract from your defense in the slightest. Yes, you've had to do more work defending yourself now, but you would've had the cushiest, least-efforty game ever if your gamble had paid off.

Enough of that, though. I'm beginning to repeat myself. You brought up a point I wanted to get back to:

You keep saying your actions have their own acronym, but the only acronym you've brought up is SHC. In a game like this, how would RSing SHC anyone, and who were you trying to seerhunt clear by fakeclaiming/roleswapping seer?

seer hunt clear simply means i throw out a fake and if i get bussed or vigi'd unexpectedly and flip green the person i peeked is cleared because it was obvious the wolves killed me. so litodude would have been cleared had i been targeted early for any reason. it didn't have any additional layers of intention beyond picking someone as a contingency if i died by what someone could reasonably called malicious intent before they knew who the seer was

[Vendetta21]

as soon as the wolves know who the seer is -- i.e. being counterclaimed because lito perceived i was trying to take control of the game, the whole thing is meaningless

[Vendetta21]

but in that position where wolves don't know who the seer is and might try to kill them because they provide the strongest value to the human team, pretending to be seer with a n0 peek during d1 which is a typically weak phase for humans is a tried-and-true strategy. i guess it depends on people not taking the peek seriously, which i didn't anticipate people doing since we've transitioned from playing less like our old ways and more like 2+2 after being invited to their yearly invitational for a few years now

[MixMasterLar]

This fucking thread, guys.

V can you link games where you claimed in this matter since you said you "always" word it like that?

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

seer hunt clear simply means i throw out a fake and if i get bussed or vigi'd unexpectedly and flip green the person i peeked is cleared because it was obvious the wolves killed me. so litodude would have been cleared had i been targeted early for any reason. it didn't have any additional layers of intention beyond picking someone as a contingency if i died by what someone could reasonably called malicious intent before they knew who the seer was

I'm aware of what it means. The part I don't get-..Holy shit did you just dumbtell hardcore?

[ShadoWolfe]

Vendetta21 talking about possible ways he could die :

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

seer hunt clear simply means i throw out a fake and if i get bussed or vigi'd unexpectedly and flip green the person i peeked is cleared because it was obvious the wolves killed me.

[ShadoWolfe]

Hey V are you tired? Because that slip is like the second coming of Christmas