TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud - Page 7

Afrobean · 08-9-2006, 03:45 PM

Quote:

Cypher wouldn't tell them the vigi. No reason to.

That's part of what I was getting at. The other part is if someone is successfully guarded, that person should not automatically get a free ride to not be lynched.

Really though, as far as I see it, the only really good outcome of a successful guard is that no one would have been wolfed the night before. Them being saved really is going to mean little, if anything to me.

Omeganitros · 08-9-2006, 04:08 PM

Errr let me clarify that: The only part of Iggy's plan I like is sending the picks to Cypher. I do not endorse publically revealing picks. The picks should be kept between Cypher and the vigilante, and nobody else, so maybe later in the game they use it to pick out people in some sort of way, I dunno. Basically, I think it could be used as a tool to find wolves, and it doesn't hurt for Cypher and vigilante to have information, even if 3 of the picks are lies (hey, they may not be lies).

**Tasselfoot** · 08-9-2006, 04:39 PM

Hmm... I like that Omega. No downside of any public revealing, but yet Cypher still having the information to work with himself. Kind of like eb in that mason-pair game.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Afro

Really though, as far as I see it, the only really good outcome of a successful guard is that no one would have been wolfed the night before. Them being saved really is going to mean little, if anything to me.

Wrong, sir! In addition to the guard, the vigi is free to use his power. As I stated during night 1, and is obvious from simple math... if there is a guard, we do NOT gain in extra night. The problem with the vigi is that if they pick a human, we LOSE a day. BUT... if there is a guard, the vigi is free to use their powers without the loss of a day. It would basically give us a "confirmed human" and allow us to choose the wolfing instead of the wolves.

**Kilgamayan** · 08-9-2006, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tasselfoot

It would basically give us a "confirmed human" and allow us to choose the wolfing instead of the wolves.

Erm, a vigi attack at night doesn't stop that night's wolfing unless it kills the last wolf.

I don't know if that's what you were thinking or not but I want to avoid that confusion just in case anyone else does.

flypie743 · 08-9-2006, 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Omeganitros

Errr let me clarify that: The only part of Iggy's plan I like is sending the picks to Cypher. I do not endorse publically revealing picks. The picks should be kept between Cypher and the vigilante, and nobody else, so maybe later in the game they use it to pick out people in some sort of way, I dunno. Basically, I think it could be used as a tool to find wolves, and it doesn't hurt for Cypher and vigilante to have information, even if 3 of the picks are lies (hey, they may not be lies).

I agree with this as well. As Omega and I were discussing Iggy's plan on AIM, Omega had mis-read what iggy said and thought that there was no public revealing involved. We both re-read and we both were against the public revealing of the names sent to Cypher. I, like Omega, support sending the names to Cypher, but not the public revealing. This information may or may not be used by Cypher, but if he needs it - it's there. Also, it seems odd to me that Iggy was really really pushing for public revealing of the names sent to Cypher.

**Tasselfoot** · 08-9-2006, 05:04 PM

So that makes 3 of us who like that idea.

And Kilga... that is NOT what I meant. I merely was implying that if a wolf kill fails, not only do we get a "confirmed human", but there is nobody dead. AND then the vigi is free to use his kill, because killing a human won't make us lose a day anymore... so the vigi is basically choosing the wolves kill for them.

Make sense? Wolves don't get the kill. Humans get the guarded person. Vigi gets the kill. As such, Vigi is making Wolves kill for them, more or less.

Omeganitros · 08-9-2006, 05:10 PM

I still don't get it, Tass. If a guard is made, that's the end of Night, andit becomes Day. If the vigilante uses his power during the day, the day doesn't end. Does it?

GuidoHunter · 08-9-2006, 05:23 PM

The day doesn't end, but the end-of-game scenario changes, I believe, hence the "gaining a day".

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

**Tasselfoot** · 08-9-2006, 06:07 PM

Let me map this out...

-Let's say it is night 2. There are 14 of us alive. Wolves target X. X gets saved.

-Now on day 2, there are still 14 people. Now if there are 3 wolves, they can still win on day 5. Simple math says there will be 12 on day 3, 10 on day 4, 8 on day 5. 5 vs 3, game will still end if there are 3 wolves left after this day.

-So the save does NOT push the game back an extra day.

-Because the save doesn't push the game back an extra day, killing a "random" person chosen by Cypher and the vigi will have the same effect as if the wolves HAD gotten that kill on night 2. Same number of people.

-And on day 5, we'd be back to our normal 4 vs 3 scenario.

-Only difference is that we'd have a "guarded human" + the vigi would get to choose a kill. 2 positives out of the situation.

I really don't think I can explain this any more clearly. Y'all will have to go back to recess and hand holding if you don't follow still.

Afrobean · 08-9-2006, 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tasselfoot

Wrong, sir! In addition to the guard, the vigi is free to use his power. As I stated during night 1, and is obvious from simple math... if there is a guard, we do NOT gain in extra night. The problem with the vigi is that if they pick a human, we LOSE a day. BUT... if there is a guard, the vigi is free to use their powers without the loss of a day. It would basically give us a "confirmed human" and allow us to choose the wolfing instead of the wolves.

Really, that's just an extension of the "person didn't die thing." And honestly, I'd almost rather the person who would be killed by the vigi simply lynched. Logically, more people alive should result in more activity. Unless, of course, it comes to a situation where the vigi is really sure about someone and that certain someone wouldn't likely get lynched.

oh and quick question while I'm thinking about it: if vigi uses power, we all find out who they are, right? That would definitely make things interesting.

rofl @ people not understanding tass's comment about humans getting to "choose the wolfing" I thought it was pretty straightforward haha

And about this sending choices to cypher: It really is useless. I'll comply if I'm asked to by cypher, but the choices really are completely irrelevent. A wolf could simply say that they guarded the obvious choice for the night and in reality not vote at all. Then if the person they said they voted for happened to die anyway, their lie is protected because they had a less than 1 in 10 chance of their lot being drawn anyway.

GuidoHunter · 08-9-2006, 07:00 PM

Giving Cypher the picks wouldn't help in getting the wolves at all, as you've pointed out, but he could use our patterns to suggest things in the future. Maybe he wants to split our votes up, maybe he wants everyone on one person, I don't know, but it couldn't hurt.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

**aperson** · 08-9-2006, 07:10 PM

I'm in the same boat as guido on this. Right now, we don't know how useful the information is. It might not be very useful at all (and imo, probably isn't), but at least it's something. Really look at the risk versus reward... There's zero risk and possibly some reward that could come out of it.

blahblah18 · 08-9-2006, 07:11 PM

hey guys
let's choose the 3 people we'd least like to see wolfed and have cypher tell each of us which one to choose to guard... that way with 14 people we get 11 votes on 3 people.. 4 4 3 most likely although the wolves would know when they have a greater percentage if all 3 wovles check in and were all given the same person, but other then that. This makes it such that each of 3 people has a 25 % chance of being guarded, which just strictly isn't worth it. This allows us to keep 3 people from being wolfed each night for the early days at least, and I think this could be more valuable then the possible guard. Thoughts?

Omeganitros · 08-9-2006, 07:13 PM

Oh! I very much like that plan, Blah.

Omeganitros · 08-9-2006, 07:15 PM

Let me see if I get it: We PM Cypher 3 names, the names of people we wouldn't want lynched. Cypher tallies up names, and takes the top three and PMs everyone back a name from one of these 3. We take our name and lotto it. That right?

Omeganitros · 08-9-2006, 07:16 PM

er, I meant Wolfed, not Lynched.

**Tasselfoot** · 08-9-2006, 07:16 PM

I thought of this, actually... and didn't post about it because of one big flaw:

Say Cypher tells 3 or 4 people to guard a wolf, which is pretty likely, given he would pick 3 people. Then you throw in 2 or 3 more wolf votes, and now we have anywhere from 5 to 7 on a wolf, and it becomes tempting for the wolves to try and kill that person. Plus, if they are guarded... we all figure it's normal. And if they die... it's a loss, but recoverable, as has been said about my comments earlier.

I'm for giving Cypher our picks to use as a way of seeing trends and patterns. Zero risk there. I am NOT in favor of Cypher going back and giving us any suggestions based on this information. That would be bad.

**aperson** · 08-9-2006, 07:17 PM

Just talked to blah about it right as he posted it... I like the idea too. As an additional note, it also chains the wolves down against wolfing those people even if they were told to guard them: If, say, two wolves happened to get one of the people on the list and they wolfed them, Cypher would then have a pretty small and nice pool to select very probably wolves from.

**Tasselfoot** · 08-9-2006, 07:18 PM

*Suggestions on future guards.

Suggestions on who may or may not be a wolf based on their guard choices is perfectly acceptable.

blahblah18 · 08-9-2006, 07:21 PM

tass, cypher's choosing who the top 3 are and we don't know... you yourself has said that its not worth it for a wolf to kill himself if he only has a 30 % chance of survival.. i'm totally fine with that.. plus, if there's a guard in this situatino it almost screams wolf, since this situation should ELIMINATE successful guards... they'd be highly skeptical at best... so your flaw doesn't exist

08-9-2006, 04:08 PM	#122
Omeganitros auauauau Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Hee-Haw! Age: 35 Posts: 8,897	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud Errr let me clarify that: The only part of Iggy's plan I like is sending the picks to Cypher. I do not endorse publically revealing picks. The picks should be kept between Cypher and the vigilante, and nobody else, so maybe later in the game they use it to pick out people in some sort of way, I dunno. Basically, I think it could be used as a tool to find wolves, and it doesn't hurt for Cypher and vigilante to have information, even if 3 of the picks are lies (hey, they may not be lies).

08-9-2006, 05:04 PM	#126
Tasselfoot Retired BOSS Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Widget Heaven Age: 40 Posts: 25,184	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud So that makes 3 of us who like that idea. And Kilga... that is NOT what I meant. I merely was implying that if a wolf kill fails, not only do we get a "confirmed human", but there is nobody dead. AND then the vigi is free to use his kill, because killing a human won't make us lose a day anymore... so the vigi is basically choosing the wolves kill for them. Make sense? Wolves don't get the kill. Humans get the guarded person. Vigi gets the kill. As such, Vigi is making Wolves kill for them, more or less. __________________ RIP

08-9-2006, 05:10 PM	#127
Omeganitros auauauau Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Hee-Haw! Age: 35 Posts: 8,897	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud I still don't get it, Tass. If a guard is made, that's the end of Night, andit becomes Day. If the vigilante uses his power during the day, the day doesn't end. Does it?

08-9-2006, 06:07 PM	#129
Tasselfoot Retired BOSS Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Widget Heaven Age: 40 Posts: 25,184	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud Let me map this out... -Let's say it is night 2. There are 14 of us alive. Wolves target X. X gets saved. -Now on day 2, there are still 14 people. Now if there are 3 wolves, they can still win on day 5. Simple math says there will be 12 on day 3, 10 on day 4, 8 on day 5. 5 vs 3, game will still end if there are 3 wolves left after this day. -So the save does NOT push the game back an extra day. -Because the save doesn't push the game back an extra day, killing a "random" person chosen by Cypher and the vigi will have the same effect as if the wolves HAD gotten that kill on night 2. Same number of people. -And on day 5, we'd be back to our normal 4 vs 3 scenario. -Only difference is that we'd have a "guarded human" + the vigi would get to choose a kill. 2 positives out of the situation. I really don't think I can explain this any more clearly. Y'all will have to go back to recess and hand holding if you don't follow still. __________________ RIP

08-9-2006, 07:10 PM	#132
aperson FFR Hall of Fame Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Houston Posts: 3,428	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud I'm in the same boat as guido on this. Right now, we don't know how useful the information is. It might not be very useful at all (and imo, probably isn't), but at least it's something. Really look at the risk versus reward... There's zero risk and possibly some reward that could come out of it. __________________

08-9-2006, 07:11 PM	#133
blahblah18 FFR Player Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: NOW BLAHTOPIA Posts: 1,662	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud hey guys let's choose the 3 people we'd least like to see wolfed and have cypher tell each of us which one to choose to guard... that way with 14 people we get 11 votes on 3 people.. 4 4 3 most likely although the wolves would know when they have a greater percentage if all 3 wovles check in and were all given the same person, but other then that. This makes it such that each of 3 people has a 25 % chance of being guarded, which just strictly isn't worth it. This allows us to keep 3 people from being wolfed each night for the early days at least, and I think this could be more valuable then the possible guard. Thoughts? __________________ but for now... postCount++

08-9-2006, 07:13 PM	#134
Omeganitros auauauau Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Hee-Haw! Age: 35 Posts: 8,897	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud Oh! I very much like that plan, Blah.

08-9-2006, 07:15 PM	#135
Omeganitros auauauau Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Hee-Haw! Age: 35 Posts: 8,897	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud Let me see if I get it: We PM Cypher 3 names, the names of people we wouldn't want lynched. Cypher tallies up names, and takes the top three and PMs everyone back a name from one of these 3. We take our name and lotto it. That right?

08-9-2006, 07:16 PM	#136
Omeganitros auauauau Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Hee-Haw! Age: 35 Posts: 8,897	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud er, I meant Wolfed, not Lynched.

08-9-2006, 07:16 PM	#137
Tasselfoot Retired BOSS Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Widget Heaven Age: 40 Posts: 25,184	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud I thought of this, actually... and didn't post about it because of one big flaw: Say Cypher tells 3 or 4 people to guard a wolf, which is pretty likely, given he would pick 3 people. Then you throw in 2 or 3 more wolf votes, and now we have anywhere from 5 to 7 on a wolf, and it becomes tempting for the wolves to try and kill that person. Plus, if they are guarded... we all figure it's normal. And if they die... it's a loss, but recoverable, as has been said about my comments earlier. I'm for giving Cypher our picks to use as a way of seeing trends and patterns. Zero risk there. I am NOT in favor of Cypher going back and giving us any suggestions based on this information. That would be bad. __________________ RIP

08-9-2006, 07:17 PM	#138
aperson FFR Hall of Fame Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Houston Posts: 3,428	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud Just talked to blah about it right as he posted it... I like the idea too. As an additional note, it also chains the wolves down against wolfing those people even if they were told to guard them: If, say, two wolves happened to get one of the people on the list and they wolfed them, Cypher would then have a pretty small and nice pool to select very probably wolves from. __________________

08-9-2006, 07:18 PM	#139
Tasselfoot Retired BOSS Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Widget Heaven Age: 40 Posts: 25,184	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud *Suggestions on future guards. Suggestions on who may or may not be a wolf based on their guard choices is perfectly acceptable. __________________ RIP

08-9-2006, 07:21 PM	#140
blahblah18 FFR Player Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: NOW BLAHTOPIA Posts: 1,662	Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud tass, cypher's choosing who the top 3 are and we don't know... you yourself has said that its not worth it for a wolf to kill himself if he only has a 30 % chance of survival.. i'm totally fine with that.. plus, if there's a guard in this situatino it almost screams wolf, since this situation should ELIMINATE successful guards... they'd be highly skeptical at best... so your flaw doesn't exist __________________ but for now... postCount++

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