TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

[roundbox]

wineandbread I've felt like I've really needed to give a deep rereading of. let's go!

I'm only going to focus on reads of living players + raeko as she's our only confirmed wolf

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

This felt a bit... obvious I guess? I'm sure you meant well but I don't think Gradiant needs prompting of his role to say the least.

Bolded: I'm not sure where you are referencing this, but the statement reuben is quoting here also confused me as well. If it is some bill wurtz reference then I guess we both missed it

Underlined: Where were you trying to go with this exactly? I pretty much glossed over that post completely. More specifically why did that post make you feel WV was awk?

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I interpreted it as both factual and joking. "thanks captain obvious" tier joke. The addition about not talking about setup appears more like a "woops I fucked up" kind of post. All we know is M or MMM anyway there's not much to discuss.

the former is a few questions for MML, finding his behavior slightly suspect but alarming. asking for reads, but not implying any alignment at that point in time.
the latter is an indirect defense of my response to blind and others about the setup.

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

The people at the time of the post I have not enough information on would be you, raeko, funnygurl, manti, and rb. To address you and sunfan, I picked you more or less randomly out of the pack. I didn't find your exchange with fg suspicious or anything, I just noticed you had two votes and I felt adding pressure here would produce the most results.

I don't intend to stay on you but your defense here is well, shallow. Deflecting to other people having less posts doesn't really excuse yourself. If I voted Manti and he talked about you or raeko having low contribution too, how would you feel about that?

wnb gives a nice defense of himself after people blasted him for random voting t-force. it's calm and collected, and explains his read in a fashion that doesn't bleed something like OMGUS and is pretty logical.

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

Does anyone want to make another tumbril until T-Force gets back?

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Here's my view of the game atm:

Not Enough Information (neutral): Manti, mellon, rb, blind

Reuben: I think he's a bit overly defensive toward Gradiant which is a bit weird, though nothing else stood out to me as too wacky.

Ind: I have no real reasons to believe he is anything but town atm

MML: Even though I didn't like his IC callout, I think confronting Gradiant felt towny.

Just gonna unvote till I get back from dinner just in case

he has this really weird request/callout at the beginning, but it feels like an awkward happenstance instead of an intentional request to find a new tumbril to jump on
as for the reads, he likes ind for ???, MML for confronting gradiant (now he takes a stance), and says ben is weird for his defense of the IC

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

Busy with something but I'll say this, rb looking much better now

y tho? potential minor pocket? nothing too crazy though

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

Uhh if I die anything to say

I guess I'll play better next time

here's his apology for his vote. this doesn't sound like a dying wolf caught in a KITB, I think he would have taken it differently than a self-pres vote into this AtE

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

~~NIGHT KILL THEORIZING~~

fuck I forgot wnb was posting about this
that and the setup stuff. this is at least slightly innocuous because he's highlighting possibilities instead of constructing a narrative. he does call one possibility a stretch, but that's not hard confirming the other.
NAI

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

Yeah so a quick iso reveals I'm basically her only active target d0, unless you count T-Force (lul).

People she thought were towny: MML, inD

Her last post d0 was at 7:17 server time so she wasn't around of EOD. But seemed more or less content with her vote before leaving.

k back to werk

:GOOD SHIT: reading dead players
NAI but thank you for your service

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

Reuben has basically one real post today. I don't have a great read on him but I think I won't vote him because I'm not really sure it provides a lot of information right now. I didn't like the bit addressing Gradiant (I'm not really sure what you were trying to say towards the end of it), and he tries to clear himself for some reason.
@reuben if you see this, who do you think you would have voted d0 if you had to, and who would you vote now?

Mellon's content posts seemed okay to me. It's not quite as much of a response I was hoping for, but I felt similarly to her in that star's case on inD was a little nit-picky in some areas. I don't feel that strongly either way on her for now but I would still be okay with voting her.

T-Force I feel a bit similarly to mellon today, also okay with lynching but not a prime suspect. Analysis feels overly meta-y (498, 530).

I read star's case on inD and I kind of mind-melded that there may be a wolf between inD and sunfan. However my gut feels sunfan is more likely. I'll read a little harder into both.

Blind.. well. The more I look at the exchange with Gradiant/roundbox in posts ~581-584 the more I don't like it. I know you kind of switched off me (well, not by vote yet..) but those posts kind of make me feel like you're a wolf backed in a corner right now.

doesn't really give a good reason for reading me town (again), and keeps MML in his towny pool.
skeptical of wanting to vote ben because of lack of info
is comfortable with voting raeko. wolf!wnb would know she's the roleblocker, so icing her d1 is a bold, BOLD bus strategy
actually down to vote t-force this time instead of just pressuring
light defense of ind here, nothing crazy though.

reads are consistent with his original list, seems organic and not forced

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

I'm gonna go ahead and pressure reuben as well for now since blind isn't here atm

jumps vote onto ben, about 1.5h before EOD

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

Does this mean you don't think inD is a good lynch anymore just for today or is he creeping back into your town list?

seems open to lynch ind, he made another post that suggested he was thinking a bit on his read on him. not too crazy, this question seems tame but the intent is there

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

@roundbox who would be your second target if you couldn't do blind right now?

intent to sheep? he follows my blind vote but he has had his suspicions on blind. only call to alarm is that he hasn't done much at this point

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

What do you mean someone is protecting Gradiant? It's clear to me wolves are blue hunting, and they hit the mark this time. Still not good to assume a doc/rb are in the game.

I think the bolded is uhh... interesting of you to say. I guess it's because you are trying to read into the setup too much again but from my perspective, we are not too far removed from some of the worst case scenarios.

if scum!wnb, he made an anti-slip here addressing the setup possibilities about saying a doc/rb are in the game. granted sunfan doc'd the IC nights 1 and 2, wnb might have a different reaction as a wolf here if they had failed at least one kill on him.

he's starting to get skeptical of MML here for his theorizing. he drives this more into his next post since MML is forcing his view as a the potential truth.

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

I guess I don't feel the apathy that you feel but you have more experience playing him than me, so we'll not divulge on this any further.

he still defends me but has no specifics. hmm

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

more reads

MORE READS

still likes me, acknowledges a potential reread
after wavering on MML, he concludes that MML is more towny than not. I think he could have really dug into MML here, so him backing off seems fine here.
he doesn't feel good about raeko. this is before the doc claim so scum!wnb wanting to vote his roleblocker as the 2nd ticket seems unlikely
wavering more on ind
ben he's fine with voting now

nothing seems odd in terms of progression here. obviously I'm skeptical on his views on me but that's only natural.

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

My team basically looks like: sun/inD (one of the two) and then t-force/ben/raeko (2 of the 3)

sun/inD is a risky vote tbh but I don't feel as strongly/confidently about t-force/ben/raeko

seems reasonable based off of his progressions

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

I don't think MML would bring attention to the setup if his kills weren't going through

hottest of takes, I like the thought

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

I didn't intentionally set-up kitb; I voted for ben because my gut told me raeko was at least more towny then ben.

hmmm. probably means nothing
fun fact: wnb is now in two KITB voting situations, lol

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

But how do you know ben is town?

H O T T A K E

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

This is raeko's last content post, which was done prior-ish to the sunfan claim

Basically looks like her proposed circle looked something like this:
Town: Lar, Wnb
Null-ish: rb, sunfan
Scum-ish: inD, ben, t-force, with her top being inD

From this I think I'd clear inD, at least for now, because she's the only person she tried to make a case for. The other two are more like "I wasn't reading / can't make cases" so they're still up in the air, but I'm not sure she would scum-read her entire team (maybe some meta bois can comment?)

sunfan we know now

rb she said was "less scary", she kind of argues the opposite of MML and T-Force here I guess since she sees effort while the others see apathy. Maybe suspicious?

And then she clears MML and I with not-so-strong reasoning. Take that as you will.

mindmelded on ind read a la raeko's read. I didn't read this post so hey that's cool that we're agreeing!
not confident on the MML point but hey you take what you get

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

setup stuff

k.

THE VERDICT:

+reads seem organic, naturally progressing from one day to the next
+mindmeld on certain points, like the raeko post combing sliptake on MML
+pure sounding "I might die from this lynch" post
+raeko's read on him

+/- setup stuff

-weird pockety feeling on me without much interaction/read depth

I think the positives outweigh the null/negatives. wnb looks good, don't think my vote is going here today