TWG 193: Animal Crossing [Game Thread]

[TWG Tank]

Originally Posted by TWG Eugene

Tank, thoughts on info that Del gave and our Boomer claim please

spicy

[TWG Eugene]

Originally Posted by TWG Tank

spicy

*bangs head on desk* oh my God...

[TWG Eugene]

A question for Molly if they ever come back:

Your last post was a short reads list on a few people at 00:32. You had over 25 minutes to participate and interact with I daresay at LEAST 10 OTHER PEOPLE but instead chose to do nothing but vote Zucker. Why didn't you talk to other people?

[TWG Tank]

Originally Posted by TWG Cherry

even without the benefit of the wolf lynch/pr claim, i don't see what was so wolfy about their posts what what

like, you could definitely make a case for them but 'one small step below a genuine slip' is exaggerated as hell

hmmm
i kinda buy this more

[TWG Eugene]

Originally Posted by TWG Dora

also this will probably out me but w/e i guess

What exactly do you mean by this?

Originally Posted by TWG Phil

what I did is exceedingly common on other sites
this is just at the point where its annoying

I must have missed what you did... What did you do, Phil?

[TWG Phil]

Originally Posted by TWG Eugene

This locks in Boomer and Del as PR and anyone would be stupid to deny this as fact

god you're so cute
people do already know this, btw

[TWG Phil]

Originally Posted by TWG Eugene

I must have missed what you did... What did you do, Phil?

the "If I am x role, I did a" thing

[TWG Eugene]

Oh Phil I just remembered something that you said regarding Punchy not forgetting a slip.

Originally Posted by TWG Julian

not letting it slide, lol. i noticed it too. very bad look!

Here's your man, it wasn't Punchy unless Punchy said something similar and I missed it

[TWG Eugene]

Originally Posted by TWG Phil

the "If I am x role, I did a" thing

Ahhh. I gotcha

[TWG Tank]

Originally Posted by TWG Maple

For real? I basically stated this in one of my posts last night, and they have yet to post... trying to look a little too town?

my net is crackd. fml

Originally Posted by TWG Julian

town's job is to lynch wolves, wolf's job is to lynch townies, and acqui's job is to take people over until they're the last one left. lynchings don't really matter to them d1, and i'd say your play best reflected that. no vote, no attempt to solve anything. you just existed because you had no motivation to do anything at that point. presumably you didn't take someone over because you got blocked.

youre makin it sound like youve never seen someone phone it in on d0 in a game with just town and wolves

[TWG Dora]

So now I update the table with my new reads:

Apollo [1]
Maple

Dotty [1]
Fauna

Flurry [1]
Cherry

Julian [2]
Agent S, Del

Zucker [9]
[ Flurry, Phil, Tank, Dora ] Rolf, Molly, Julian, Boomer, Chief

Chief [1]
Punchy

Didnt Vote: Zucker, Melba, Dotty, Apollo, Mathilda

=======

So of the people left there are 3 categories:

-The people left on Dels wagon:

Rolf, Molly

-The people who had nothing to do with Dels wagon

Agent S, Fauna, Cherry, Maple

-The people left who didnt vote:

Apollo, Melba, Dotty, Mathilda

========

Unfortunately, getting any info on the people who didnt vote from the wagon is pretty futile as you can probably imagine. I solidly think not voting is purely anti town behavior (sorry apollo) but its not strictly indicative of wolfiness. It just makes it harder when people like me try to put the pieces together.

That being said, I believe they must be judged strictly by their play since their vote says nothing. Melba and Dotty were ghosts d0. Eugene has had a very strong phase this game so I dont feel at all bad about townleaing him despite the slot. Chrissy has kind of been all over the place, im thinking by eod ill have a better feel for that slot.

Apollo has been pretty strange. He has shown himself to be a very outside the box player. Openly admitting to not voting, held on to doubting boomer as the vigi for the longest out of anyone, has voiced very random and occasionally wildly unpopular opinions. He might be a possible candidate for Acquisitioner but I really dont think he's a wolf.

Mathilda has been playing very aggressive in response to early pressure. Initial impression is it isnt towny because a lot of it is centered around deflection. Theres a very fine line between towny anger and wolves getting angry to throw people off them. Without the help of meta i cant really be confident in this read but if theres a wolf in the people who didnt vote this is where it is

Eugene: Town
Dotty: Town lean pending EoD
Apollo: Null
Mathilda: Wolf lean

============

Finding the last wolf on Zuckers wagon is not going to be easy. Both Molly and Rolf didnt really have anything in their iso that is incriminating (though in my opinion Rolf sounded townier leading up to eod) and I dont want to go too deep into speculating without clear cause>effect.

Originally Posted by TWG Molly

In regards to the Zucker wagon, my first instinct upon seeing a PR claim less than 2 minutes from EOD is to make sure the PR didn't get lynched and the best way to ensure that didn't happen was to cast a vote on what I knew was really the only other wagon at the time. If I had Zucker as a solid town read, then my reaction might have been different.

I'm sure that other people reacted in a similar fashion. At the same time, I'm sure wolves saw this as an easy opportunity to hop on an easy wagon. That said, the Zucker wagon is likely a good place to look in terms of finding wolves, but I don't think being on the wagon in and of itself is indicative of wolfy behavior.

This post doesnt really say very much. The end especially tastes like just word spam. If there is a wolf left on Zuckers wagon, I'd give the edge to Molly. This is probably my lowest confidence read yet, this just might be the mark of a level 2 wolf player that the absence of strong opinions on their play is a mark against them.

In short, after Chief if I had to pick another wolf on the zucker pileup Molly would be it

Rolf: Slight town lean
Molly: Wolf lean

=====

Last but not least, the people who did their own thing and stayed away from zucker and dels wagon, to reiterate that would be:

Agent S, Fauna, Cherry, Maple.

Agent S and Maple were there at EoD. (EoD being defined as T-15 mins from day end).

Another bold prediction, Im going to half clear Cherry and Fauna. I would call this read medium confidence. I just dont think wolves completely whiff being present at EoD. I realize its entirely possible because IRL happens which is why its a half clear. Only if Agent S and Maple were somehow cleared would I look under them at Cherry and Fauna.

Branching off into more traditional reads, Cherry has had limited presence and I dont really like much of what shes done today. Fauna has looked a lot better by comparison. So if you must breach this lower bracket, Cherry should be scrutinized first.

Agent S was present till the very end of the day, attacking his scumleans rather than getting involved with the dogpiling onto zucker. I think this looks good, doesnt clear him by any means but its the inverse to my chief wolf read pretty much.

Maple was last seen around 15 mins till EoD and i think represents the more likely wolf in this small subset. Their last post for the day was this

Originally Posted by TWG Maple

Crazy how people don't realize when eod is. That's not good in my book. I came to double-check my vote, and I'm fine where it lies since they are one of the ones above.

yeah this isnt weird at all. wait a minute...

Out of the people who abstained from the Zucker/Del wagons maple is my highest confidence wolf lean

Agent S: Town
Maple: Wolf lean
Cherry: Low confidence town lean
Fauna: Town lean

======

[TWG Tank]

Originally Posted by TWG Chief

Also, I saw someone said I was null earlier - I think honestly I look a bit bad due the way that zucker lynch played out. While I feel the reasoning is really obvious, I don’t think I just walk away here. Mostly because it’d be openly hypocritical, despite the circumstances. In short, consider this a personal acknowledgment from me of that.

idg why you care enough to write a speech but dont care who said it about you
not relatable fam

[TWG Fauna]

You are giving incredibly strong reads, Dora, but it doesn’t excuse the night actions..

Are you writing all this as a wolf? Acq? Are you claiming that boomer got blocked in the night?

[TWG Dora]

So the FULLY updated wagon list with all my reads:

Apollo [1]
Maple

Dotty [1]
Fauna

Flurry [1]
Cherry

Julian [2]
Agent S, Del

Zucker [9]
[ Flurry, Phil, Tank, Dora ] Rolf, Molly, Julian, Boomer, Chief

Chief [1]
Punchy

Didnt Vote: Zucker, Melba, Dotty, Apollo, Mathilda

=========

LEGEND:

Green = Town lean or Town
Black = Null
Red = Wolf lean or Wolf

=========

To summarize fully:

I think there are 3 wolves within this group of 4 people:

Molly, Mathilda, Chief, Maple.

A tier below them are people who should be investigated should that world prove false:

Apollo, Chrissy, Cherry, Rolf

And above them are my town reads / leans:

Julian, Rolf, Flurry, Phil, Tank, Punchy, Eugene, Agent S, Fauna

[TWG Dora]

Originally Posted by TWG Fauna

You are giving incredibly strong reads, Dora, but it doesn’t excuse the night actions..

Are you writing all this as a wolf? Acq? Are you claiming that boomer got blocked in the night?

I am claiming boomer got blocked or i got medic saved. Thats the only thing that makes sense from my point of view

[TWG Dora]

Ill try to post more tomorrow, i have to sleep now

[TWG Eugene]

Originally Posted by TWG Dora

I am claiming boomer got blocked or i got medic saved. Thats the only thing that makes sense from my point of view

Like I mentioned earlier, our doctor would've had to be an impossibly high level of stupid to NOT save Del last night and take a 1/18 chance that YOU were our night kill?

The odds of Boomer shooting you and your vest popping are MUCH higher than 1/18 doctor save on you or Boomer being blocked, which Boomer has said I believe more than once that the shot went through

[TWG Fauna]

Originally Posted by TWG Eugene

Like I mentioned earlier, our doctor would've had to be an impossibly high level of stupid to NOT save Del last night and take a 1/18 chance that YOU were our night kill?



The odds of Boomer shooting you and your vest popping are MUCH higher than 1/18 doctor save on you or Boomer being blocked, which Boomer has said I believe more than once that the shot went through

It’s still possible though, we can’t ignore that ... perhaps ignoring that is the best option this phase though, I don’t know, I need to reread

[TWG Fauna]

It’s a very big contention point and we have to consider how much time this will eat up in future phases if we don’t know for certain after today

[TWG Phil]

that's why we are going to be certain today
by lynching Dora