[Concluded] The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

[Starlight562]

Out of curiosity, have people gotten responses for day 11? o:

[rushyrulz]

No. I'm trying to track down the imgur album where the images are stored so I can get started on today's entries. (I'm at work otherwise I'd have it)

[psychoangel691]

Sorry guys, usually I hit up the late night/early morning ones but we're leaving today to go up to family's for the holiday. So I was running around trying to finish packing last night and been doing the same thing morning. So behind x.x

[Starlight562]

No need to apologize, getting closer and closer to the holidays.

Hope everyone has a good day. ^_^

[Tarrik]

Originally Posted by rushyrulz

There are a few people who have only gotten 7k the entire contest

Yup, sounds like me. 500's with like two 1000's..lol. Fingers crossed!

[rushyrulz]

yea so my skype history doesn't go back very far on my phone I guess. Sit tight guys :S

[master q60]

Out of curiosity, what is the RNG set at?

[Dark Saga]

Originally Posted by rushyrulz

There are a few people who have only gotten 7k the entire contest (and have participated everyday). I hope for their sake that they win the special prize at the end.

7,5k here (500 x 5, 1000 x 5)

waiting for today's toke... I mean, prize

[rushyrulz]

Originally Posted by master q60

Out of curiosity, what is the RNG set at?

Not revealing til the end, but here's what someone else came up with from data in the thread:

Originally Posted by noname219

After counting, here's the probabilities :
Token : 18/846 ≈ 1/50
50,000 : 9/224 ≈ 1/25 (but I'm guessing it's probably 1/50 instead)
25,000 : 6/224 ≈ 1/37.3
10,000 : 10/224 ≈ 1/22.4
5,000 : 18/224 ≈ 1/12.5
1,000 : 84/224 ≈ 1/2.6
500 : 97/224 ≈ 1/2.3

Mine is 500/1000/500/500/1000/500/5000/1000

[LethalMutiny]

I'm so hype to get my 500/1000 credits today again.

[foxfire667]

Okay so apparently there has been some issues this morning with people gone and finding the image. Anyway it's resolved, people should start receiving replies shortly.

I apologize for the delay of getting all these PMs out, wasn't around earlier in the morning to deal with anything.

[blindreper1179]

Events canceled

[FFR Events]

All PMs to this point have been replied to. Sorry for the wait.

[badman7772]

Pulled a 10k after pulling a 5k card yesterday. Guess I gotta "play m0r ffr" to "get m0r creds"

[VisD]

Logging my guess for the distributions now:

rng roll out of 50
500: 1-20 (40%)
1K: 21-40 (40%)
5K: 41-44 (8%)
10K: 45-47 (6%)
25K: 48-49 (4%)
50K: 50 (2%)

Will be interesting to see the actual distributions!

[benny58624]

Originally Posted by rushyrulz

There are a few people who have only gotten 7k the entire contest (and have participated everyday).

I was one of these people, and got 500 credits again, lol.

The probability to gain a maximum of 7500 credits AND no token in 11 days is around 2.5%-3% (calculated with noname219's estimated probabilities) .
The chance to get a token in 11 days is around 20% (assuming the chance at a token is 1/50).

[FFR Events]

[quote=benny58624;4250368
The probability to gain a maximum of 7500 credits AND no token in 11 days is around 2.5%-3% (calculated with noname219's estimated probabilities) .[/QUOTE]

more like 8%

[ItsOnlyDanO]

well I called getting 500 today and got it

guess I can't complain

[Dark Saga]

500 today...

calling that tomorrow I will get 1000 only to equal my prizes.

[benny58624]

Originally Posted by FFR Events

more like 8%

Are you sure? How I calculated the probability:
P(no token and max. 7500 credits in 11 days)=
P(no token in 11 days)P(max. 7500 credits in 11 days)=
P(no token in 11 days)(P(11x 500 credits)+P(10x 500 credits and 1x 1000 credits)+P(9x 500 credits and 2x 1000 credits)+
P(8x 500 credits and 3x 1000 credits)+P(7x 500 credits and 4x 1000 credits))=

I could have made a mistake, let me know if you find one.
Approximated chances were used so the result isn't 100% correct.
I tested the formula on different chances for 500 and 1000 credits, and found this: to get a 8% chance, the probability to get (500 or 1000) credits on a day needs to be more than 85% OR the probability to get 500 credits on a day needs to be higher than 50%. Both options seem unlikely (but possible).

If you say 8% because for example 7 out of the 87 players didn't get more than 7500 credits and no token: this doesn't give the real probability, but just an approximate chance out a sample.