TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

[roundbox]

forgot to mark shado town, oops

[Xiz]

i never knew you were jade, huh

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by Xiz

i never knew you were jad, huh

[the sun fan]

votecount:
Precarious (5)- Freezin, Daikyi, TWGma, Xiz, jessie
Freezin (2)- Celirra, Precarious
unvote- Charu, grit

[blindreper1179]

is end of day in half an hour?

[roundbox]

tough crowd

[TWGma]

Originally Posted by blindreper1179

is end of day in half an hour?

Yes.

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by Xiz

i never knew you were jade, huh

Secrets out

Hopefully you forget by the next time I use that account for a twg.

[Charu]

Hi, I'm present, barely.

[Charu]

Honestly, if Precarious is town, disappointed they didn't go ham right about now with these possibilities being tossed around.

Then again, I suppose if they were wolf, it's pretty much in wolves best interest to keep quiet.

[blindreper1179]

I want to vote pre, but I won't insta this time. So we'll play out the 15 minutes.

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by Precarious

Would vote for Roundbox or Manticore out of the people I've ISOed.

does she only speak to kids?

you butter believe it

just posting this nice quote in the event prec flips wolf and you all want to scumread me right after
d0 footage of a hot bus if we're both wolves here (but I'm not so this equation doesn't work)

Originally Posted by Charu

Roundbox (Might regret now)
Funnygurl (Not gonna lie, she was not there until that post, dead serious)
Haku (Defeatist)

d0 really is interesting, hmmm

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

xiz is separate from mml and freezin

my reason for sussing xiz is something I don't want to say explicitly but... yeah

what did he mean by this

Originally Posted by Xiz

I kinda like the vote actually.

referencing sprucegrit's almost out of place vote on Freezin
HmmMMMm

I think sprucegrit's vote here cements them as town, I think this is the start of the wagon wolves were hoping for but it never caught too much traction

Originally Posted by Xiz

I don't agree with it but I like it.

well, I guess there's this

---
still readin'

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by LightManticorex2

General thoughts on the current gamestate:

1) roundbox - playing like I am so probably overwhelmed town
2) T-Force (TWGma) - I remember nothing from this slot
3) blindreper1179 - Town
4) flashflash account - Jumped on/agreed with my Lar read without voting scummy
5) Xiz - I remember nothing from this slot
6) ShadoWolfe - I remember nothing from this slot
7) DarkManticoreX2 (LightManticoreX2)
8) Hakulyte - Weird defeatist mentality that doesn't seem usual of town Haku
9) Funnygurl555 - Saw a bunch of posts, nothing seemed that interesting - null
10) mellonxcollie (mellon_collie) - Mellon attacking roundbox early in the game for activity seems very weird to me. I don't think scum mellon pushes roundbox though, I think she avoids him instead of calling out his activity trying to get him into the game - town
11) Zoshi FreezinIce - claimed
12) mtamburini - I remember nothing from this slot
13) MixMasterLar - claimed
14) Precarious - I remember nothing from this slot
15) sprucegrit - Got a bunch of info early about a shop feels third partyish even though I know there is no third party
16) Xelicopter (alt of XelNya) - I remember nothing from this slot
17) Tokzic - There was a lot of scumreading on tokzic early on in the thread and I don't recall him coming back to fix it.
18) DaBackPack Innocent Child
19) jessiebessie (TWG The Queen) - I remember nothing from this slot
20) who_cares973 - I remember nothing from this slot
21) Adam33 _Zenith_ - I liked this slot with adam tbh. felt clean. town
22) Celirra - I remember nothing from this slot
23) Charu - Wolf charu would be pushing me more I believe - town
24) Yoshl (Daikyi) - Seems like a low activity game for yosh maybe scum

1) was he pocketing or wolfreading me here? not sure. I think he's wolfreading me here, lol, since he used the phrase "playing like I am" and this would subtly hint from a lost wolf if their potential wolf buddy gets their signal
kinda neat to see

he seems to make lots of townreads here, not so much wolfreads. the rest of his reads are null.

[Daikyi]

still intention to vote, will do at :55 tbh

[roundbox]

lame-os and your instas

[Precarious]

1. Give up hope.
2. Freezin implicates himself.
3. Still going to be lynched.

This rollercoaster of emotions. I look forward to discussing this with you guys at length in the post game. In the meantime, let me leave you with this:

The Last Will and Testament of Precarious

To Freezin, I bequeath one vote--except it's already on you.

To the Town, I bequeath the following:

Originally Posted by the sun fan

votecount:
ffa (3)- blind, Manti, fg
Tokzic (1)- Zenith
freezin (2)- Lar, grit
tambo (1)- mellon
who_cares (3)- TWGma, Celirra, Shado
fg (4)- Freezin, Haku, DBP, ffa
jessie (1)- roundbox
Manti (5)- Prec, Charu, Xiz, Daikyi, jessie
unvote- who_cares

Originally Posted by the sun fan

votecount:
ffa (2)- fg, Charu
roundbox (2)- TWGma, blind
Daikyi (1)- Xel
Tokzic (6)- Shado, Celirra, Lar, grit, Xiz, roundbox
jessie (3)- ffa, Freezin, precarious
unvote- jessie, Zenith, Daikyi

Originally Posted by the sun fan

votecount:
ffa (9)- Xiz, Freezin, Precarious, TWGma, roundbox, Charu, grit, blind, Xel
Precarious (3)- ffa, Celirra, jessie
TWGma (1)- fg
unvote- Shado

Please refer to my D0 EOD analysis in 4868

D0 EOD was characterized by a lot of late vote-swapping. This isn't unusual, but the intensity and specificity of it was. As noted, the original wagons were ultimately eclipsed by Manti and FG--the Manti wagon in particular filled quickly. It's worth noting that Jessie voted at the very last moment, thus sparing FG. I initially interpreted this as an indicator that Funny's and Jessie were a potential scum pair, but I abandoned that much later--after Funny's big reveal. I believe this was a mistake--thanks to their friendship and the EOD result I overassociated the two of them, which caused me to overlook the obvious once Funny cleared. And that's that the Jessie/Charu wolf link has never been comfortably disproved. Instead, I notice they've since limited their direct interaction since my original case (see 5018), presumably distancing.

***

Now, the Funny wagon has, by definition, one wolf. That's Freezin. All other players in that group are since flipped. That makes sense, since ideally wolves would want to avoid action, hiding their votes in a safe non-lynched space when the lynchee proved to not be one of them.

All other currently alive wolves must therefore have their votes spread elsewhere. I suspect Charu and Jessie on the Manti wagon; I also have some concerns about Daikyi, whose vote pattern is troubling. He was a late push on Manti, was unvoted the next day, and avoided the entire showdown between me and FFA (ultimately resulting in the insta) the next day. His play has been overly cautious and cynically reflective, picking on minutiae that never goes anywhere in order to create stasis. I have a hard time believing there'd be so many wolves on the same wagon, but Daikyi reads wolf if Charu/Jessie is wrong.

Xiz by contrast looks the best of the Manti voters. His Tokzic vote looks very good in retrospect. I read his confusion in various places as genuine. According to his posts, he had various IRL commitments that affected his time, and his confusion over the Funny Speculator triad seems genuine. In light of that, his willingness to go against the grain there feels like the work of someone trying to solve something without full understanding. He has a fairly high post volume with a fair amount of filler, but overall he seems genuinely inquisitive.

Zenith and Sprucegrit are probably town. Despite his excessive tunneling on me, Zenith's aggression has always felt genuine, coming from a place of conviction. His ability to make up for the, um, actions of his predecessor speak to a high degree of commitment--that's sort of NAI, but the sheer analytical effort feels out of place for scum in a game of this much activity. More to the point, his D0 vote looks good in retrospect. After that is less clear, but his distaste for me is consistent with not participating in the insta.

Sprucegrit also benefits from the same D0 logic, having placed a vote (along with MML) on Freezin. As above,these were not threatening wagons in the long run, but the EOD circumstances changed rapidly. Tokzic was initially taking heat due to a combination of inactivity and irrelevant material in his brief appearances, and Freezin absorbed some heat after his and MML's claims clashed a bit. (We now know that MML was sort of right; Freezin has at least partially abandoned that particular pose). This was further buttressed by his next day's vote, where he correctly voted for Tokzic (this EOD is less interesting to me since it was largely premised on what turned out to be a slip by Tokzic, but the results are still somewhat meaningful imo). I'm not as sold as many on Spruce's actual play, probably because it's stylistically distinct from what I'm used to. There seems to be a lot of deference paid for relatively few aggressive reads, but I fall into the camp that sees his initial item post as towny.

Blind was on FFA (a temporarily promising wagon) on D0, Roundbox the next day, FFA again yesterday as part of the insta. Similar to his actual play, this is fairly null. However, his results are relatively internally consistent, given that he's come back to Round again. I don't really care for his game. It's been aggressive in places, but conveniently so; he also had that really scummy "why am I alive" post at 6583 that felt like a guilty twitch. That said, his style feels somewhat similar to Freezin's to me, and I'm not sure wolves would be comfortable adopting that tone with multiple players. Null.

TWGma and Celirra both voted WC on D1, then diverged--but frankly, I have trouble seeing either as a wolf. TWGma's FE knowledge and general bent, as well as focused activity reads firmly town. His Roundbox vote is generally reasonable. Celirra's play has been more sporadic imo, but has a solid claim, and a Tokzic vote (as well as the conviction to defy the insta, even if their assumption was still wrong).

Roundbox's play has improved from his start, but still comes across as forced. His reluctance to commit to shooting in the ITA speaks to this; his play is all over the place, occasionally teasing substance, but never actually providing it. His Tokzic vote does look good in retrospect, but a pile on is hardly a rare idea. Wolf lean.

Xel barely exists. I don't have the meta knowledge some of you do. Null.

[Charu]

Wish you could've talked sooner, y'know...

[Charu]

For what it's worth, I've got some scenarios in my head where you're town.

[roundbox]

I like precarious's post, but the wolfreads seem weird to me

[Charu]

Like I don't think you're as likely to be such a wolf as these others going on about.