TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

[Vendetta21]

it was somewhere in the neighborhood of "how did you mindmeld with me on something about sunfan i was wrong about because i misremembered the thread?"
"saw him doing what i thought was preparing his responses, anyways raeko is wolf okay gotta go"

[Vendetta21]

"where was he preparing his responses?"
"i'm the pink ranger okay can't hang out long, vote xelnya for self-pres, later"

[AragakiAyase]

yeah, even with time constraint factored in I think that would make town xiz feel more of a need to answer relevant questions instead of changing the subject

[AragakiAyase]

still think it's ridiculous that he can't even give one proper example of me being wolfy on the basis that I'll try to refute it

no shit that's part of the game, ofc I'll try to refute it

[Vendetta21]

well the thing ab out his sunfan read was it went from

town doesn't want to lynch
i make a post
mindmeld wants to lynch
i question him further
says he misread sunfans actions and he was probably also being lazy/skimming like me too
later in the phase says he wants to lynch sunfan or raeko

[Vendetta21]

his read of raeko is so fast and loose and doesn't seem to fit, especially when she directly questioned him about something that should be obvious for him where she was inclined to disbelieve him because he was a wolf with her last game -- instead of addressing that he just ignores it and then appears to vote raeko and leave -- not advancing to the read just clinging to the read he literally opened the game with

[Vendetta21]

raeko inclined to disbelieve xiz about not knowing how the role works because he was on wolf team last game
xiz ignores, makes another reference to his ignorance later
apparently he didn't notice raeko's comment/question, but still thought she was suspicious

[Vendetta21]

the two scenarios i see here is one where xiz doesn't have time for this fucking game at all and should replace -- but honestly i won't forgive him for this because it's way too often the most convenient excuse for a wolf to play poorly by using the busy-card and it's frequently a good indicator of wolfhood when someone is constantly talking about how busy they are but not replacing

but on the other side of the coin it just seems like he lacks convinction in the things he thinks and just hoenstly does not give one flipping shit about getting anyone else to see what he sees either when moving his own points forward or responding to questions about them and that's a bigger red flag then the excuses. having some reads that are consistent over 5 days that are unconvincing and you aren't really making an effort to elaborate on or even genuinely persue

[j-rodd123]

the only problem with lynching xiz first is isnt his claim actually verifiable

[AragakiAyase]

Originally Posted by j-rodd123

the only problem with lynching xiz first is isnt his claim actually verifiable

no, because he says both nights he hasn't shot any pink balls

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by j-rodd123

the only problem with lynching xiz first is isnt his claim actually verifiable

thought about this and there's a corner case where it isnt and also turns my role off for the last use of it

[j-rodd123]

Originally Posted by meno_rocks123

Sarcasm or not, let's run some probable outcomes here. Nothing is guaranteed, but I'll try and theorycraft a solution that fits current data.

Quick role elimination: vigi
I'm going to go ahead and assume competent enough play that the wolves sent in a kill PM both nights. 0 deaths and 1 death during the night really don't point to a vigi being in the game, but it does point to some form of guardian.

Quick role elimination: seer
I'm going to wager that we don't have a seer, since we have a greenmaster and having both would both be awkward, and give the humans a huge advantage (dependent on rng).

Based on last game's roll, we'll have equal Human PRs as wolf PRs. Last game had an interesting turnout where colour PRs were basically mirrored between teams. I don't think that's a pattern to look for so much as a basis for balancing teams.

seer/freeze - grey
vigi/sabo - red
guard/mw - green
Pink ranger/chaos - pink/(choose)

I'll take a moment here to say that, if you're a human PR and you claimed VT, fix that shit right now. We can theorycraft the hell out of this game and every piece of meaningful data closes more holes.

What bothers me a lot right now is that greenmaster, pink ranger, adept guardian is a valid human PR team, and that it fits our current situation. However, including the pink ranger and greenmaster on the same team is a bit of a dick move as it fucks the greenmaster. Why? The greenmaster has two abilities:
-set up a green alliance by proxy where any green indirectly targeted is made aware of a confirmed human
-is notified if said green is no longer green.

Now let's quickly check the pink ranger's abilities:
-paints someone's adversary pink each night (3-shot)
-is informed if they stop flipping pink
-finds out how many wolves flip pink once they've three-shot

Pink ranger + greenmaster is literally a giant clusterfuck for the humans to try and decipher if they were ever put on a team together. Each role is somewhat designed to weed out whether a chaos wolf exists, although moreso with the greenmaster. I'll just hope that tokzic isn't that cruel.

It does seem like roles have been swapped around a bit, though.

So, what are our probable wolves? Doublecross(Xel), chaos, janitor(Xiz).
What are our probably PR humans? greenmaster, adept guardian(inD)

Why? Because I'm pretty sure Tokzic did some basic checks to make sure that there weren't any clearly broken strats, and this is a fairly balanced PR split. In addition, this setup allows for a lot of colour shenanigans that the wolves can use to help them without breaking anything. This setup doesn't have MW in it, but MW would be a dick move for humans in this setup in lieu of chaos.

The one other setup I'd consider right now would be doublecross, chaos, mw, greenmaster, ag, pink ranger. That would be colour hell, though. If that were so, I'd rather take a feel good shot in the dark every day than actually try analyzing colour for any value.

So it's almost 4am, and I think what I've said makes sense. Maybe it doesn't, but I have job fair round 2 at 10am tomorrow, so I'll deal with any fallout tomorrow when I get home. I will be present for EoD.

fuck i forgot about janitor, pink ranger is a useless role then

[j-rodd123]

oh and that too, that's way too convenient , someone was saying at the time he claimed that pink ranger was "a role wolf is least likely to claim" or something like that and i was thinking the opposite

[Vendetta21]

or alternatively i just die, but yeah nonetheless i want pressure on him so he comes in and starts talking about his reads on sunfan and raeko more in depth

[j-rodd123]

but i like that meno post and will switch to xiz

[j-rodd123]

unvote

[j-rodd123]

dunno how close to insta that is so ill just hop off but thats where my vote is in spirit

[j-rodd123]

at least we are pretty likely to know if we lynch a wolf today because if the wolf kill is someone like V/AA then they have to be down to just one

[AragakiAyase]

unless a town is gamethrowing lolol

[Hakulyte]

AA, can you do a votecount? (lol)