TWG Turbo 35: A Small Gathering [GAME THREAD]

[leetic]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

Go on, keep procrastinating this "case"

Volunteering in a food bank right now, I should be able to get home soon

[_Zenith_]

Originally Posted by leetic

Volunteering in a food bank right now, I should be able to get home soon

Sounds good, if you find the time, please give your reasoning behind being sold on its me and not Haze here. Do you even see a world where Haze is a wolf?

[leetic]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

Sounds good, if you find the time, please give your reasoning behind being sold on its me and not Haze here. Do you even see a world where Haze is a wolf?

I'm currently leaning 90% you and 10% Haze. I'll explain more in my detailed case

[leetic]

Alright, here is why I feel that Zenith is the most likely wolf here.

Contention 1: The Raeko vote

At EoD, wagons were 2-2, with me and MML on Raeko and Raeko and Haze on me. Zenith had the deciding vote here, and went for Raeko. Why? Zenith had me as a paranoia suspicion while having Raeko as solid town and no posts in their progression suggesting that they were reconsidering their read of that slot. As town, they should have voted me, but why not? Consider that Raeko had Zenith as a top wolfread for quite a while, being interested in pushing a Zenith lynch as late as 20 minutes before EoD. Any F3 where Raeko is still alive would be a very difficult position for Zenith to be in, whereas they could expect me and Haze to crossvote based on EoD. There's also the fact that they waited until the last minute to vote, which can be interpreted in a few ways. It could be inertia from sites that don't have hammers, not wanting to get any shit for hammering early, or carefully weighing which vote was better strategically. Still, the fact that they didn't post any reasons why they ultimately were leaning towards or went with a Raeko vote over a vote on me suggests against this being someone trying to solve who's the more likely wolf.

Contention 2: Every dead villager is pointing in Zenith's direction
XelNya - Expressed interest in voting Zenith because "consensus", and tried to switch to voting Zenith at the end but failed because of the hammer
roundbox - Zenith was the target they were pursuing most fervently
Raeko - As mentioned before, was pushing Zenith for a large percentage of D2 and D1 as well
MML - Explicitly townread both me and Haze, Raeko/Zenith was his exact PoE at EoD

Compare to the people who are still alive:
Myself - Did push Zenith for a good portion of D2, but also played devil's advocate to them in many ways
Haze - Pushed Zenith a bit D1, but retracted that push and never really saw them as a priority since

It's ultimately a pretty comfortable position for Zenith at F3, all things considered. While this isn't fully condemning on its own, when combined with the other evidence it does make you question why they're still alive.

Contention 3: Performativity
When they went into D2, they made a huge stink about how the D1 lynch was terrible and that roundbox was a bad kill. This alone is a red flag, as town isn't typically this performative and Zenith wasn't trying to channel it anywhere productive. When I actually pressed them on their thoughts on the roundbox kill, it's clear that they haven't actually put any thought into it. The only arguments about what they would hope to accomplish as wolf by leaving roundbox alive that made sense were the ones they blatantly lifted from me. It's clear that this wasn't a genuine towny thought and was likely more to deflect from making the kill and also cover up that roundbox had suspected them. Their response to me today is more of the same, acting very certain about why I was suspecting them (and being wrong) and also whinging about me being deepwolf, when the very reason I am still alive is becuase they voted their "townread" over me (the "deepwolf" terminology over "SK" was also lifted from me btw). It all feels very fake and deflective.

Bonus: SBPC

Not actually a part of my argument, but it would be funny if this was the case for basically the entire game.

Let's take a look at a couple of potential counterarguments to this case:

Counterargument 1: They're bold
There are a few problems with this argument at this stage in the game. Yes, some of their pushes like on me D1 and Haze D2 were a little bit bold. However, Haze made some bold moves to, like the tunnel on me D2. Some wolves do win by tunneling and forcing 1v1s with townies, but it is a move that requires risk, so it's not clear that Zenith even wins out on the "boldness" argument. Secondly, the Raeko vote shows when push comes to shove, their convictions don't seem to be super important. Thirdly, one area where Zenith wasn't bold was when voting: they voted someone who hadn't posted yet on D1 then quickly unvoted and never voted that day again, while being the last to vote D2 and waiting until the very last minute to do so. This isn't the behavior of someone too bold to be a wolf.

Counterargument 2: Noob town
Firstly, the Raeko vote was not a noob town move, noob town couldn't resist the temptation to get rid of one of their paranoia suspicions in that scenario. Secondly, this excuse increasingly ceases to be meaningful as the game goes on, a lot of wolfy plays can look "noob town" on the surface so that can't be a meaningful reason to townread this late in the game. Ultimately, it fails to outweigh all the other evidence.

Here's the point in the post where I would vote Zenith if there wasn't a hammer. Still, probably best to wait for Zenith's rebuttal and look at Haze a little bit. Haze hasn't been the best at towntelling, but the game just makes much more sense if Zenith is the wolf.

[Haze with a Z]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

This is a bad gambit that does not benefit town here

You were gunning for Leetic towards EoD there, do you still have those feelings or have they changed since the flips?

It’s prob good I didn’t do it then.

Yes I still feel it is leetic but also I did kinda think that you were tunneling me and that if you weren’t the wolf we just lose here regardless so I had to hope you were wolf tbh.

[Haze with a Z]

Zenith why did you vote raeko to come into today pushing a leetic deep wolf? I don’t remember you pushing or sring raeko at all tbh

[Haze with a Z]

Leetic’s post is like the equivalent of an entire phase. I hate reading long posts tbh.

[leetic]

Originally Posted by Haze with a Z

Leetic’s post is like the equivalent of an entire phase. I hate reading long posts tbh.

Just read it

[leetic]

Originally Posted by Haze with a Z

It’s prob good I didn’t do it then.

Yes I still feel it is leetic but also I did kinda think that you were tunneling me and that if you weren’t the wolf we just lose here regardless so I had to hope you were wolf tbh.

If I'm following you correctly, you expected Zenith to tunnel you?

[leetic]

This is disconcertingly quiet

[Haze with a Z]

Originally Posted by leetic

If I'm following you correctly, you expected Zenith to tunnel you?

Yes. Zenith was doing that yesterday so I assumed it would happen again today tbh.

Also I did think this site was like a pop in pop out game until like 3 hours til eod tbh cause we never actually are all on at the same time until then tbh.

[leetic]

Originally Posted by Haze with a Z

Yes. Zenith was doing that yesterday so I assumed it would happen again today tbh.

Also I did think this site was like a pop in pop out game until like 3 hours til eod tbh cause we never actually are all on at the same time until then tbh.

Zenith did have you as supposedly their biggest wolfread, but I haven't really seen any follow-through on that from their end

Does Zenith's entrance affect your read of them? I had entered with a suspicion on them, so w!Zenith would likely be very hesitant to get in a crossfire with you

[Haze with a Z]

Ok I finished reading your post now.
I feel like the important questions to be asked to zenith can be boiled down to
Where did you want to vote d1 in the end? Why did you not vote there?
What made you choose to vote raeko over leetic?
Why did you not advocate for voting me yesterday when it seemed like I was your biggest sus. You never even voted me.

[leetic]

Originally Posted by Haze with a Z

Ok I finished reading your post now.
I feel like the important questions to be asked to zenith can be boiled down to
Where did you want to vote d1 in the end? Why did you not vote there?
What made you choose to vote raeko over leetic?
Why did you not advocate for voting me yesterday when it seemed like I was your biggest sus. You never even voted me.

Do you see any holes in my case or do you think it looks reasonable?

[Haze with a Z]

Originally Posted by leetic

Zenith did have you as supposedly their biggest wolfread, but I haven't really seen any follow-through on that from their end

Does Zenith's entrance affect your read of them? I had entered with a suspicion on them, so w!Zenith would likely be very hesitant to get in a crossfire with you

Today or yesterday? Yesterday I found myself tring them by virtue of thinking that you were contradictory and u agreed with them tbh

[Haze with a Z]

Originally Posted by leetic

Do you see any holes in my case or do you think it looks reasonable?

I think it looks reasonable, I think noob town is a stupid argument because I think we’ve all played before and I would argue noob town is more shy and nervous tbh

[leetic]

Originally Posted by Haze with a Z

Today or yesterday? Yesterday I found myself tring them by virtue of thinking that you were contradictory and u agreed with them tbh

Their entrance today I mean. Was your TR on them a mindmeld or something else?

[the sun fan]

no votes have been cast

[Haze with a Z]

Originally Posted by leetic

Their entrance today I mean. Was your TR on them a mindmeld or something else?

Tbh their entrance was kinda meh but I feel like the only part affecting my opinions was their reads changing for seemingly no reason tbh.

Yeah it was mostly a mind meld. It felt like we were reaching different conclusions but like seeing and saying the same things which seemed towny tbh

[Haze with a Z]

Why does sun use two different accounts for this game?