The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

[Crizo92]

Wow okay

10 18 seconds ago Lost
10 22 seconds ago Lost
10 28 seconds ago Lost
10 34 seconds ago Lost
100 1 minutes ago Lost
100 8 minutes ago Lost
100 8 minutes ago Lost
100 9 minutes ago Won
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100 10 minutes ago Won
10 6 hours ago Lost
10 6 hours ago Lost
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10 8 hours ago Lost
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10 8 hours ago Lost
10 8 hours ago Lost

Wow I almost got an 18 streak.

Sweet 11.111 win percentage.

[LoneW0lf]

10000 9 seconds ago Lost
10000 13 seconds ago Lost
10000 18 seconds ago Lost
5000 2 minutes ago Lost
5000 2 minutes ago Won
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5000 5 minutes ago Won
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5000 5 minutes ago Lost
bull****ing ****.

[LoneW0lf]

comps nuts.

[ieatyourlvllol]

Originally Posted by MrRubix

No, the probability of this happening is absurd

Originally Posted by MrRubix

I don't think people understand how rare such streaks really are.

Yeah, pretty much. I have a rather lengthy explanation below.

As an example, take a ten-loss 100k streak. Ignoring the lower wagers (which, as you know, is allowable as given by the parameters governing the probabilities of independent event sequences), the chances of such a run occurring is 1:1024. Of course, those odds translate to a cumulative input of over one billion credits, which I highly doubt has at present been sunk into the gambling system. In any case, assuming a pool exclusive to 100k bets, theoretically for every 1023 guys who fortunately don't lose ten in a row, there will be one unlucky guy (i.e. MrRubix) who does. However, this situation has relatively little bearing on the absurdity. In fact, the average lottery has a one in x-hundred-million chance of a full match. To match those odds, you would have to consecutively win or lose 27+ wagers.

So then...what is causing the supposedly outrageous improbability of Rubix's results? An important thing to keep in mind is that when reverting back to inclusion of lower wagers, as maintained by the same aforementioned rules, each event of the ten-wager runs can be separated by any number of events of other magnitudes. Thus, a net loss of one million credits can (with the gross 10*100k decrease factored in) be achieved in plethora of ways, as long as there is no extreme deviation.

The problem rests within the fact that the configurations are subject to either result regardless of amount; you could just as easily respectively win and lose fifty 100's and fifty 500's as you could the other way around. Consequently, though the loss may be as abundant as, say, ~3 million credits, the outcome percentages can vary. As for Rubix, in addition to the unlucky 100k streaks, he just happens to be winning on like 10's and whatnot. For example, let's say that in 100 bets, he loses ten 100k's and fourty-five 50k's, while wins fourty-five 10k's. His net loss is 2800000 (iirc roughly around the correct value), but his win percentage is 45%, which isn't at all unreasonable - it's the same as flipping 45 tails out of 100 coin tosses.

What Rubix was getting at was that the chances of winning mostly or only on your low wagers, as demonstrated above, is absolutely ridiculous. Taking from the coin concept, it would be like flipping heads on 10/10 dimes and 45/45 nickels, while landing tails on 45/45 pennies. Played out in an ideal probability layout, the majority of cases should produce more or less equivalent win and loss counts for each amount. Of course, there will be incredibly distant outliers within the populace, but as within any normal probability distribution, the distance (inversely related to the odds) increases exponentially with respect to the deviation. What happened to Rubix would place him a gaping distance away from the central line of density.

That being said, with his luck, Rubix will probably proceed to win 100k one-thousand times in a row, only to have the FFR server blown up by a meteorite and the backup data storage cooked by a well-placed lightning bolt.

Moral - Don't gamble (well, perhaps not unless you have a static chance greater than 50%).

P.S. - I'm not even sure if all of that was correct, but w/e.

EDIT: Oops...I hadn't noticed that Rubix had already posted a bet-streak list. =O

[MrRubix]

ieat understood me correctly. What happened to me last night during my betting was extremely improbable due to those reasons. Even though the win/loss percentages still remain more or less 50%, the probability of always losing high wagers and randomly gaining smaller wagers is absolutely insane.

[Tasselfoot]

for the record, there have been well over 100,000 total bets completed. aka, 100,000 placed and 100,000 accepted. over 110k at this point.

that's 220,000+ outcomes for different users. plenty of time for large streaks and variances to show themselves.

also, there has been over 1 billion total credits wagered. the top10 alone has over 500 million.

[awein999]

I never thought the ffr community would get so consumed over credit gambling. There is no strategy, it is always a 50/50 shot at any given time, and you will lose in the long run because of the 1% house rake. Besides, isn't it more fun to earn credits by achieving with skill? (tournaments or whatever)

so if there have been over 1 billion total credits wagered, over 10 mil have vanished. The house will win in the long run you will lose. Credits become more scarce the ffr community in general will need to play more to unlock the secret songs again and purchase the new songs coming out in the recently fixed purchased app. This is actually a very very clever way to give ffr more publicity Now that I think about it...keep gambling

[Tasselfoot]

i like to whore my bum for credits.

[Tidus810]

Gah... With my 700k on my alt aside, I went from 400k up to 1m and then all the way down to 5k. x_x I'm a dumb ass.

[s0ulst0n3]

Oh what the hell.

5000 32 seconds ago Lost
10000 38 seconds ago Lost
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10000 1 minutes ago Lost

[hoochan]

Rubix, gambling is all about luck unless you're playing 21. **** that probability ****. That only comes into play, once again, during 21.

(Yea, I'm exaggerating because a bunch of gambling is probability but not the probability that helps you)

[sc979]

I should bet higher, but I won't.

100 1 minutes ago Won
100 3 minutes ago Won
100 3 minutes ago Won
100 1 hour ago Won
100 1 hour ago Won
100 1 hour ago Won
100 1 hour ago Won
100 2 hours ago Won
100 2 hours ago Won
500 2 hours ago Won

Best Win Streak: 10
Worst Lose Streak: 10

[MrRubix]

Luck, yes, but you can definitely profit from this game. I just lack patience to do it and prefer taking occasional risks. However, those risks nailed me two nights ago, haha. At the very least, I know that I can build my way up to a few hundred thousand pretty quickly.

[s0ulst0n3]

I'm down to 21 credits. Remove the link, PLEASE!

[MrRubix]

JUST A NOTE TO EVERYONE WHO THINKS THEY WILL GET LUCKY:

If you're going into this without ANY strategy, and just (fairly randomly) clicking on various money amounts hoping to win, you will eventually go bankrupt.

[s0ulst0n3]

Originally Posted by MrRubix

JUST A NOTE TO EVERYONE WHO THINKS THEY WILL GET LUCKY:

If you're going into this without ANY strategy, and just (fairly randomly) clicking on various money amounts hoping to win, you will eventually go bankrupt.

Thanks for the late warning. XD

[lumphoboextreme]

my strategy is still working.

[MrRubix]

Once your credit amount dips below 600k or so, your betting power decreases dramatically and you have to start playing really conservatively (practically never touching anything above 10k). Below 200k or so, you shouldn't touch anything higher than 5k, and if you're less than 100k, you should never touch anything above 1k. Taking on the higher variance in those situations is too much of a risk, because if you lose, you're extremely limited in the kind of bets you can make. Eventually, since the house takes 2% per transaction, your losses will outstrip your winnings, and you end up in the same situation that many have been in (including myself), where you have absolutely no credits left to bet with. Then you're stuck peddling 10's and 50's, and it takes forever to get out of that.

Lump: If I am observing correctly, you're trying to use a cover (and then reverse-temptation) strategy.
BTW: Spamming is technically not in your favor. Well, it *can* be. But it is risky.

[MrRubix]

lump: How are you betting/accepting stuff so quickly?

[hoochan]

Rubix, how did you regain your credits? Smaller wagers?