TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD

[Vendetta21]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/59...terms-1375065/

[mellonxcollie]

Originally Posted by Litodude

0 math games, all just pure rando dumbness.

Like a social game you play with your friends for fun...?

I prefer that to a numbers game where you just whittle down players according to probability with the least amount of fun/interaction possible

I'm be skimming some of these posts not gonna lie

V, I don't think this game would have necessarily turned into a seer hunt because of the format? so that'd be my guess to why nobody assumed that's what you were doing

[Vendetta21]

not to make you feel stupid lito but i was trying to throw confusion into the mix for wolves and you full on counterclaimed my peek and voted me so theres no way to cast any aspersions on this whole situation it's absolutely fucking obvious to the wolves -- luckily they cant kill you directly so humans just need to not make you an adversary or ally and u are safe

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by meno_rocks123

Well shit, folks. Looks like we have a good old fashioned double role claim up in this bitch.

Now, I may have been out of the game for the past few years but, I see no reason to change the age old plan of lynching both players starting with the initial claimant. Applying basic logic skills to the play, there is no reason for a wolf to counterclaim a human, even to take out a strong power role. This would have to be an extraordinarily ballsy play by wolf lito to trade 1:1 for a PR, so it's extremely unlikely that he is a wolf. However, should V not flip favourably, we will also need to lynch lito tomorrow.

V

this is way too m,any words justifying what should be from his perspective an easy l;ynch. caught the first one for you boys

no need for so much justification and initial trepidation when he thinks the situations obvious -- but the lengths of justification here make a good padding for reference later "see my thought process" -- lmfao i especially love the "and if v doesnt flip favorably we will lynch lito" before he even knows what is going on. no curiosity here about how a situation like this arose so quicklyu, just grabbing for the fucking prize: a dead seer.

[Vendetta21]

mike

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

not to make you feel stupid lito but i was trying to throw confusion into the mix for wolves and you full on counterclaimed my peek and voted me so theres no way to cast any aspersions on this whole situation it's absolutely fucking obvious to the wolves -- luckily they cant kill you directly so humans just need to not make you an adversary or ally and u are safe

This is what I was thinking. V might not play alot but just about everyone here knows to fake claims.

Except no one was doing it because it's not a turbo and that's really a turbo-only strat.

Still on it's own this posts makes me feel ok about V

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

this is way too m,any words justifying what should be from his perspective an easy l;ynch. caught the first one for you boys

no need for so much justification and initial trepidation when he thinks the situations obvious -- but the lengths of justification here make a good padding for reference later "see my thought process" -- lmfao i especially love the "and if v doesnt flip favorably we will lynch lito" before he even knows what is going on. no curiosity here about how a situation like this arose so quicklyu, just grabbing for the fucking prize: a dead seer.

and now I no longer feel good about V

This looks pretty rushed and seems like you're trying to pass the heat off to someone

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by lurker

you're assuming neither of them is pulling the turbo strat of fakeclaiming seer as a green
this seems like a bad assumption to make even though that strat sucks here

If V were green and wanted to hypocop, I doubt he would've gone with such a hard-line claim.
Saying "peeked litodude vanilla green last night" doesn't even give the slightest hint of a roleswap. It's a bold-faced statement of fact, and reads a lot more like a wolf feeling out a possible empty role than either trying to hypocop or roleswap.

If he had said, "if I'm seer, I peeked lito vanilla green last night" it would've been clear that he's either the seer trying to cover himself by starting a hypo train, or someone trying to provide cover for the seer by laying down a hypothetical peek. If he had written it like that, I would've left one too because there would've been no chance of him being "misinterpreted by the seer" and causing the most valuable role to out itself, and he still would've accomplished his goal. Instead, he directly claimed a peek in his very first post, which is bad (as is evident in its outcome) whether or not he meant well with it.

Originally Posted by lurker

lito can die without indheart being a wolf if sabo didn't use their power on n1
if you compensate for your gap in logic by assuming sabo used their power on n1 then it is incredibly unlikely that indh is a wolf

You're assuming sabo exists. Either way, I realized lito can die without inD being wolf after writing the first part. I included that in my "option 2", but forgot to add it into my reasoning for the first option.

[Vendetta21]

okay think about the situation where i as a wolf peek someone vanillager when i have no idea how many PRs are in this game as my opening post

then think about someone seeing the heat forming and coming up with a plan to lynch both claimants since they cant kill the seer directly.

the difference is mine was -- and still pretty much is innocuous since theres an easy way to shield lito. i don't play turbos and we don't play many set-ups with n0 peeks so it doesn't come up much but it is a tried and true strategy that there's no reason not to do, i think lito just got excited because it was me and he thought he caught me outright -- which is probably why it went down like this instead of something i would have expected

but look at the intentions and the thought process in mike's post. so far, that post does nothing for humanity except definitely, totally, kill a seer

[Vendetta21]

and of course im trying to pass the heat off im human and wolves obviously are going to try to capitalize on the situation so the question im asking is well this is how it went down, this is the context, who seems to be trying to gain an advantage against humans with it?

ask yourself that question from my perspective and mike's thought process seems obvious here, whereas shadowolfe considering the permutations of the same situation does not

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

Like a social game you play with your friends for fun...?

I prefer that to a numbers game where you just whittle down players according to probability with the least amount of fun/interaction possible

I'm be skimming some of these posts not gonna lie

V, I don't think this game would have necessarily turned into a seer hunt because of the format? so that'd be my guess to why nobody assumed that's what you were doing

Where are you, then?
Interactions are great, right? Get in here and share! You've played this setup before. Any thoughts?
I'm traumatized by you trying to slip UTR every game. You said you were gonna drive for several hours and then be able to play. There's plenty going on, and instead all we get is "I'ma be skimming some of these posts not gonna lie" once there's heat elsewhere? C'mon, Raeko, interact with us :3

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

okay think about the situation where i as a wolf peek someone vanillager when i have no idea how many PRs are in this game as my opening post

Thought about it. Let's imagine wolf V for a moment. It's a semi-closed setup, so he doesn't know whether or not a seer exists. There's talk of a massclaim, and waiting too long too claim is a sure way to gather suspicion. If a seer doesn't exist, claiming early is most believable. If one does exist, it's the one role where he can retract his claim and say he was trying to roleswap. He's fairly confident he can shed enough suspicion to avoid a lynch by retracting, and he'll have discovered the identity of the seer and whether one exists. It's a little risky, but it's a win-win-win if he manages to shed that suspicion as wolf.

See where I'm coming from? One more thing: it would've been really easy for town V to avoid a chance of accidentally drawing out the seer, while still being able to leave his fake peek and bait the wolves, if he had just phrased it as a hypothetical, "if I'm seer, then I peeked Lito vanilla green last night".

[Vendetta21]

that's fair i've always peeked like that tho

[Xiz]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

and of course im trying to pass the heat off im human and wolves obviously are going to try to capitalize on the situation so the question im asking is well this is how it went down, this is the context, who seems to be trying to gain an advantage against humans with it?

ask yourself that question from my perspective and mike's thought process seems obvious here, whereas shadowolfe considering the permutations of the same situation does not

I get where you are coming from but I wish you waited longer to see if others jumped on you. Having only mike (besides lito) jump on you isn't the strongest argument. Your accusation feels rushed.

[Vendetta21]

Discovering the identity of the seer isn't really a big win for wolves though so that play would be way too complicated and fancy from that perspective -- what is gained versus what is risked is not identical

[Xiz]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

If V were green and wanted to hypocop, I doubt he would've gone with such a hard-line claim.
Saying "peeked litodude vanilla green last night" doesn't even give the slightest hint of a roleswap. It's a bold-faced statement of fact, and reads a lot more like a wolf feeling out a possible empty role than either trying to hypocop or roleswap.

If he had said, "if I'm seer, I peeked lito vanilla green last night" it would've been clear that he's either the seer trying to cover himself by starting a hypo train, or someone trying to provide cover for the seer by laying down a hypothetical peek. If he had written it like that, I would've left one too because there would've been no chance of him being "misinterpreted by the seer" and causing the most valuable role to out itself, and he still would've accomplished his goal. Instead, he directly claimed a peek in his very first post, which is bad (as is evident in its outcome) whether or not he meant well with it.

I would like it to be known that this is a good post.

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by Xiz

I get where you are coming from but I wish you waited longer to see if others jumped on you. Having only mike (besides lito) jump on you isn't the strongest argument. Your accusation feels rushed.

i didn't expect to see lito go so crazy at it, which is why i peeked lito -- figured he would, even if he wasn't green (let alone the seer), wait and see

[Vendetta21]

i thought about j-rodd, that was my first pick but it was too obvious because jrodd also plays with the same strategy so i figured it would bve a giveaway that it was fake

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

that's fair i've always peeked like that tho

Wouldn't know becuase the only time I've we've played you thought it would be a grand idea to not actually play and had a post count of like 3.

Shado makes a good point on wording to be fair, but the biggest point you have in your favor right now is that you're actually here.


Walking to le waffle house but will be able to interact there on my phone.

[Vendetta21]

like, the wolves know the identity of the seer... so what? game isn't hindered and the set-up was such that lito was going to claim anyway. huge probability of a seer in this game given many roles are grounded in having it in play. the gain as a wolf is on a corner case that balance of probability says is unlikely.

We had 6 additional slots beyond games initial size, we have at least 3 and 3, which suggests a 40% chance at best but probably more like 33% chance of no seer.

Ask yourself if I as a wolf was going to take a 33-40% chance at some cornercase strategy where the advantage gained is amorphous and unclear (and even if there wasn't a seer not totally likely to work) or if I just peeked someone randomly (a compounded additional 38% chance to be wrong peeking someone vanillager who wasnt, leaving the bayesian chance for me being wrong somewhere in the 80-90% range) because it seemed like an okay way enter the game?

[Vendetta21]

there's a lot of contextuals there but the point is the math puts me somewhere above 70% chance of being wrong on a rough estimate and having someone know i was wrong. it was a lazy play because i thought it wouldnt matter if i was wrong because the intention was never to be right -- it was to attempt to throw confusion about who is the seer and who is known town to the party that is collaborating and it didnt take much effort to do and i never expected it to turn into a full on roleclaim showdown

but it has, and here we are, and i feel like i've defended this enough that my logic and reasoning is pretty clear here -- and if you are still tinfoiling me the question about what i had to gain is an important one to be considered and not just "28% of the time people might have thought he was the seer" (point here being i don't even gain full confidence with people as the seer given the painting roles and other ways information gets distorted in this game) -- and i hadn't thought about it until now but if i was a wolf it would have made a lot more sense to peek another wolf given that it would reduce my chance of being wrong

my point with analyzing mike's posts is because he takes the obvious route here -- one that capitalizes on the momentum being drawn in the thread, without adding to it but obviously taking advantage of it.

he goes to a decent amount of length to justify something he makes clear in his first sentence that honestly doesn't need much justification given the thread momentum, and then concludes that if he we were wrong that we should then kill litodude. it suggests he knows more than he should about this context in some way. why does he need to go to the next step contingency at this point? why is he hastily moving towards a lynch when the momentum is there?

that reeks of capturing advantage to me, and something not shown by other players in the rollout of posts since lito got excited. i want to focus on this, because it's the strongest lead in the thread right now given where the current events have lead