TWG 193: Animal Crossing [Game Thread]

[TWG Rolf]

Originally Posted by TWG Punchy

(cue Rolf yelling at me about wolf strategy)

Nah, I fucked up I think going the route I did last phase. Not saying I didn't like where my vote ended up, I absolutely did not like Apollo's vote switch there. But I was really banking on one of non-Tank or Tank being a wolf. At the time I feel like I wasn't wrong to believe that, but I'm fully expecting when I go through dead chat to see people yelling at me.

[TWG Flurry]

Originally Posted by TWG Punchy

Flurry, what do you mean when you say I'm a part of tons of worlds?

Also, you asking for a no lynch isn't going to work here. I tried to give us extra time yesterday with the Villager vote, but YOU and Apollo decided not to vote with me and instead lynched Agent S. You asking for extra time here is hilarious and upsetting. Now that we're in mylo, wolves will just no kill and leave us in mylo again (cue Rolf yelling at me about wolf strategy) and we'll be in the same place with more time. We're never going to be out of mylo; the numbers will never align for town and you know it.

My post on Fauna's other relationships is almost ready. I'm writing it in between bites of food.

Hey free time is free time and Phil/Cherry seems to have issues with being present so, it's not as laughable as you might think regardless of if a no kill happens.

[TWG Apollo]

Originally Posted by TWG Boomer

Immediately after claim.


Also soon after.


Later on in D1.


Hmm...


Logic-based vote.

-=- DORA CLAIMS ACQ -=-


First vote after the claim.


Soon after.


Also soon after.


Chrissy votes right as Del unvotes.
Chrissy was the potential 10th vote (including mine) with lynch being at 10.

She and then Cherry unvote soon after, so it's back down to 7:
Myself, Phil, Flurry, Eugene, Agent S, Fauna, and Mathilda.

I should mention that Chrissy's vote came a minute after Cherry, whose was a minute after Mathilda, who was a minute after Del.
Del saw the votes pile up and unvoting at the perfect moment to keep that day on-going, whereas Chrissy had seen the claim, commented on it, and voted after a couple minutes.

Based off of this, Chrissy's vote looks arguably the worst,

Would make sense that flurry and fauna vote Dora immediately because they know they aren't the vested wolf

[TWG Apollo]

I forgot quotes don't follow through when quoting the post that quoted them

[TWG Flurry]

Originally Posted by TWG Apollo

Would make sense that flurry and fauna vote Dora immediately because they know they aren't the vested wolf

How is that not a generalization ?

[TWG Apollo]

Originally Posted by TWG Flurry

Not really. I was hoping Maple would know about that.

Also Mathilda claiming makes my D0 EoD look really good now.

This is annoying because you had said that if del hadn't claimed you would've voted Mathilda

Originally Posted by TWG Flurry

I guess you could be wolfing too, but meh.

Lol

[TWG Apollo]

Originally Posted by TWG Flurry

How is that not a generalization ?

Wat

[TWG Flurry]

Originally Posted by TWG Apollo

Wat

Why that doesn't apply to everyone ?

[TWG Flurry]

Originally Posted by TWG Apollo

This is annoying because you had said that if del hadn't claimed you would've voted Mathilda

I feel like it's the 2nd time you forget that I voted Zucker and didn't consider Del at all.

[TWG Apollo]

Originally Posted by TWG Phil

get this shit out of here

his case isn't any better by virtue of him being confirmed town

can you rub your two braincells together and actually fucking think for yourself instead of just going "town say this, me follow"

Originally Posted by TWG Flurry

Tempted to say Fauna town, but super wrong tbh.

Originally Posted by TWG Flurry

Well yeah, but even if I do, this can go in so many directions atm that I'm not sure what makes the most sense.

So, I'm not surprised to see where Fauna is at.

Flurry defending fauna when Phil goes in and votes them

[TWG Apollo]

Originally Posted by TWG Flurry

Why that doesn't apply to everyone ?

Because not everyone immediately voted Dora?

Originally Posted by TWG Flurry

I feel like it's the 2nd time you forget that I voted Zucker and didn't consider Del at all.

With how Zucker was playing I don't take you being the first vote to carry much weight sorry

[TWG Flurry]

Originally Posted by TWG Flurry

I don't think town you would be skeptical of me at this juncture.

Originally Posted by TWG Fauna

This game just repeatedly gets flipped on its head, I'm skeptical of everyone

Yeah, no. inc.

[TWG Flurry]

Looks like it's either no lynch or Flurry/Apollo thunderdome in the sense that if he's town, he's probably never voting with me anyway.

[TWG Flurry]

Originally Posted by TWG Apollo

Because not everyone immediately voted Dora?

It's just the best play except for the insta part.

[TWG Flurry]

If you're a misguided town, this game is like totally over tho.

[TWG Flurry]

Need more Rolf/Punchy posts.

[TWG Apollo]

Originally Posted by TWG Flurry

bored. Tank

Originally Posted by TWG Fauna

Hard claiming jailer

/s

Okay cool guys if you’re gut reading me that really doesn’t give me much to work with and feels like a weak bus

If you have suspicions or questions, feel free to ask away and I’ll respond

Oh boy isn't this something

[TWG Apollo]

The bored. Tank quote is to show just how much work flurry has been putting in

[TWG Punchy]

Originally Posted by TWG Fauna

Phil is eh for the fake roleclaim suggestions, I feel like that’s something a wolf would find a lot more valuable than a town would

+other reads

I deleted some other reads, so quote it if you want the rest. She leaves out Cherry and Flurry, so there's nothing here. Her first mention is on Phil re: hypocopping and that it's a wolf strat. A null push here.

Originally Posted by TWG Fauna

I think you're letting these four (conveniently yourself) off the hook with this

Zucker is a good vote to make as a wolf prior to a tunnel. He is inactive, so not that helpful to a wolf team anyway, his actions were almost entirely NAI and if he does get voted off, he flips as wolf and suddenly you look a lot more towny.

If there is a wolf or more in those 4, I have no doubt they would have swung to someone else had he become active during eod

This is another response to Phil, calling him out for Flurry, Tank, and Dora (as well as Phil himself). She's indicating that she wants to scumread someone on the Zucker wagon, and it looks like Phil is highlighted here. If Phil is a Fauna partner, this is the only person she really calls out here.

Originally Posted by TWG Fauna

Your progression was literally changing your vote from chief to zucker straight after realising that EoD was close. You gave the reason of Zucker having the least posts out of the 5+ posters.

Was there any other reason you were voting Zucker?

Here's some additional pushing on Phil. She directly calls out Phil for his vote on the Zucker wagon, and not really anybody else. Based on other things I read during her ISO, I think this push on Phil was a mislynch breadcrumb. See how she pairs Phil with Fauna later.

Originally Posted by TWG Fauna

Something interesting is that flurry was Dora's first vote and someone she said was really slimy and then went on to say in the reads list above that flurry was top town. Could be partners

Fauna here knowingly partners Dora with Flurry, giving us the impression that she's assuming Dora is exactly the BP wolf. Fauna knows that Dora is going to flip acq, so this could be a setup for a "oh, it was actually an honest read, everyone! Flurry is an honest read of Dora because she's acq". There is an interesting thing with Flurry/Phil though later on.

Originally Posted by TWG Fauna

For the record, I like that Cherry is picking apart people’s words still while everyone else is focused on Dora and vote count. Very towny imo

Townread of Cherry. One of the few reads on Cherry, in fact.

Originally Posted by TWG Fauna

Heres some stuff

Town

- Cherry (Cherry is asking very good questions and noticing a lot of things that people are missing. They also don’t seem to be pocketing anyone which I really like. In particular, I like that they questioned Dora about the soft clear they did for everyone who was on the Zucker wagon before Del claimed. I’m still upset Dora never responded because I’m still struggling to read people like tank and flurry. I would be pretty surprised if Cherry was scum.)

Town Lean

- Phil (I initially didn’t like the whole Roleblocker fiasco back in D1 but when I look at his overall play I really don’t see how his game is ever scum. He has been consistent in his reads, his progressions seem very natural, and he actually has an understanding of the game mechanics, which is more that I can say for a lot of people. For now, I see him as a benefit to town.)
- Flurry (I don’t really see what’s so wolfy about flurry. He is engaging conversation and keeping critical, and also staying quite active. I know theres the whole julian vs flurry thing but I just don’t see a world where Flurry is a lock wolf. Saying that, there is a lot of flurrys posts I just don't know how to read, and I'm not really sure why.)

All 3 players of contention are townread by Fauna. She puts Cherry in the highest townread tier, writing that they don't seem pockety and they mindmelded with her on Dora's point about the Zucker wagon.
She notes Phil as being towny overall minus the roleblocker thing, which is something Fauna and I agreed upon at that point in time as being odd. She notes his consistency and progressions, and gives him a townread for knowing game mechanics. A big vague on the progressions part and the mechanics thing is NAI and easy to say about anyone. Could be a free townread.
Not sure if this list was in order, but Flurry was on the bottom of the townread pile. Fauna writes that Flurry isn't a lock wolf (weird conclusion to make this early in the game) and that their contributions to conversations is a net positive for town.

Originally Posted by TWG Fauna

Full disclosure, this list is not accurate. It is based on recent peoples reads as well as random comments that caught my attention from ISOs. I made it to get a better idea of the overall reads in the game. Wasn't originally going to share it but maybe someone else will find something useful in it.

https://imgur.com/a/S75CqiY

Cherry and Phil are currently the most townread people in the game. I townread them myself so I don't want to be hypocritical here, but has any pressure been put on any of these people at any point? If not, I think these should be the people we look at it we're a few day phases from now and don't seem to be getting anywhere.

I found Apollo interesting in this list because he seems to be the person with the most even amounts of town, null and scum reads. Is this someone throwing themselves around enough to not be a focal point? I think Apollo is someone that should be figured out in the near future as well.

As far as today goes, after matthilda's soft claim, I don't want to touch her this phase. I still don't know how to feel about the claim. I'm happy with a Molly, Chief or Chrissy lynch.

Mollys flip would give the most information out of any of them
Chief I'm just sick of reading his shit regardless of alignment
Chrissy is also someone who I feel hasn't really contributed to the game in any way since subbing in, and I would not be surprised in the slightest if they flipped scum.

molly

I won't be able to do any more proper digging before EoD, but I will keep up to date with the thread and change my vote if this turns out to be a mistake.

I left this post unedited for discussion sake. The other posts have mentioned more people, but this one stands out for the people Fauna mentions and the people Fauna doesn't mention. She echoes again that Phil is one of the most townread players in the game, and adds Cherry to this tier as well. Fauna asks for people to look here late in the game.
She does NOT mention Flurry here even though she has 6 noted townreads on the image, which is tied with Julian, one below Cherry, and two below Phil.

Originally Posted by TWG Fauna

With Julian confirmed town, his take on Phil looks a little more possible. Assuming Molly blocks based on her scumreads, Eugene or Phil are really the only two she might have blocked. I struggle to see these two as scum, but if tonight ends up being a mislynch, I think we need to focus on Phil. If Eugene is a wolf, they deserve MVP.

Phil has dropped down since Julian outed.

My gut says I should be being more skeptical of Flurry.

at this point:

confirmed town: Boomer, Mathilda, Julian
town: Eugene, Cherry
town lean: Tank, Maple
null: Agent S, Apollo, Cole, Punchy
scum lean: Rolf, Phil, Flurry

I hate that I don't have strong scumreads on anyone anymore. I'm going to ISO Julian with the perspective of knowing he is town and see if I can find anything.

Deleted parts of this post on players that are dead.
She quickly moves Phil and Flurry to scum territory with a special note on Phil being looked at if that phase ends in a mislynch. This is the same phase that Maple was flipped as town, so this could have been more breadcrumbing for a mislynch on Phil. Fauna delivers on it a bit later in the phase in two posts down.

Originally Posted by TWG Fauna

Why are you leaning wolf cherry?

Soft defense of Cherry. Not really much else out of this post.

Originally Posted by TWG Fauna

Calm down, friend

Molly never talked about blocking you (did she talk about blocking anyone???), but you were definitely a suspicion at one point. You are getting awfully defensive over a passing thought I was having. Are we closing in on you?

Either way, I'm up to page 13 (lol) and the only things ive really gathered so far is that I don't think theres a world where Cherry and Flurry are W/W.

Flurry is the first person in game to start getting serious with this:

He specifically asks Phil this, but this might just be due to Phil being active in the thread at the time.

Cherry gets fairly defensive quite early in response to tank

Cherry and Flurry have a bit of an interaction after Flurry claims a pro-inactivity stance to try and get reactions from people:

Fauna says there's no w/w of Flurry/Cherry. I don't think she makes this post if her partners are exactly Flurry and Cherry, so there's only a chance one of them could be wolf here. However, this nullification of w/w from this sequence of posts makes no sense to me. If you can make sense if it, do it.

Fauna also continues the push on Phil here, posturing that they might be on a lead. Fauna doesn't push on this very much though, and it looks like she drops the point a bit when dropping the lynch order post. That being said, all three of Phil/Cherry/Flurry are all next to each other on the list under the confirmed.

Originally Posted by TWG Fauna

Matthilda
Boomer
Julian
Eugene
Flurry
Phil
Cherry
Tank
Maple
Punchy
Apollo
Agent S
Cole
Rolf

Aforementioned lynch order. See the three under the confirmed.

Originally Posted by TWG Fauna

If we have a deep wolf, then its flurry or phil

both seem unlikely in my eyes though

Fauna specifically names Phil and Flurry as deep wolf potential, but shoots down the suspicion on both. Awfully convenient if both are exactly her wolf partners.

Originally Posted by TWG Fauna

You have a very commanding presence in the thread, I think it’s perfectly possible you were trying to control the narrative, like Julian said. I know who you are and I think you’re perfectly capable of acting this towny as a wolf. I’m just not at the stage of entertaining the idea of a super deep wolf. I think there’s much more likely cases in the pool I mentioned above

Backs off of Phil. If Phil is her partner here, she puts him back at elbow's distance with the last sentence here calling him a potential deep wolf here. If Phil is a mislynch she was breadcrumbing, then she's backing off because Phil's defense made other people back off too. Could still be breadcrumbing with the deep wolf comment, though.

Originally Posted by TWG Fauna

Meringue/Apollo/1 of Punchy or Cherry

Name drops Cherry and myself. Cherry is named here because Julian had the hot take. Seems like a pocket attempt of Julian here, and this is a huge break in her Cherry reads. Could be setup for towncred if this is a bus, but I think this is more for pocketing Julian than it is busing a potential partner considering their huge lack of progression.

Originally Posted by TWG Fauna

This is where I'm at. I'm not really confident on anything at this point, but its a start.

Cherry: I’ve gut read Cherry as town pretty much right from the start. I have read no reasons to move my lean. Doesn’t clear Cherry at all, but is probably one of the last people I’d investigate.

Flurry: Play seems very individualistic, doesn’t seem to tunnel, always seems like he is looking for alternative options than the ones presented by the thread. Towny behaviour, imo

Phil: I see Phil as a very inconsistent player. There’s some phases where I don’t think there's a chance in hell that he is scum, and some phases where I feel he knows too much about the current state of the game. Scum gut lean.

Lynch Order (Towniest at Top):

Julian
Yuka
Flurry
Cherry
Agent S
Phil
Punchy
Rolf
Apollo
Merengue

Moves up Flurry, moves down Phil.

Originally Posted by TWG Fauna

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Was just throwing out ideas, wanted to entertain the idea of cherry being scum but I just can't do it

hence no push

Realizes Cherry is a no-go. Probably not partners at this point, I'd say. She knew she couldn't push on Cherry without getting called out, so this is probably telling us that Cherry is town.

Originally Posted by TWG Fauna

I feel like he is in his own way, but not in a way that helps anybody else. It’s been quite scattered

Final post on Flurry defending the scattered thinking. Nothing specific, though.

=========

My verdict:

I don't think that Cherry is Fauna's partner at all. I just don't see it given she very visibly backed off of her and never developed reads. Probably a pocket.

She could be partners with Flurry/Phil, but it's never both here, I'd say. She calls Phil a deep wolf multiple times, and keeps him at elbow's distance. She does move him down in her list, so she seems ready to jump on him whenever. This could be a partnership or a mislynch pounce. She could get some towncred if he's a bus, or she could be setting up a mislynch on a strong town player from her point of view.
With Flurry, weirdclears the relationship of her with Cherry as not being w/w I encourage someone else to read this because I have no idea what point she was trying to make. She also calls Flurry a deep wolf, but then drops the specifics on any points on her. She doesn't appear to be setting up a potential mislynch or a bus, so if they're partners, I'd say this is a longevity play. If they're not partners, then it's a pocket, but compared to Cherry and Julian, this does not look like a convincing pocket.

If I'm truly resetting here, I am looking at Flurry here. Given the fact that wolves were ahead, avoiding suspicions on Flurry sets them up to achieve parity faster. Phil is a potential option too, but considering Fauna wasn't on Zucker and called out the people who voted them out (which included Phil and Flurry, but only targeted Phil instead of her), it doesn't seem like Fauna is the kind to bus partners (if you assume Rolf is town here).

[TWG Apollo]

Originally Posted by TWG Apollo

Oh boy isn't this something

Aged like fine wine