TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

[Shashakiro]

A few things:

1. Even if the wolves thought there would be a small chance, even only 15 or 20%, of Tass being guarded, IMO I don't think they'd have gone after him (which they didn't). Tass getting successfully guarded would be disastrous for them, it would basically confirm him as human and give the wolves all kinds of grief.

2. For all the people who say think that Tass would have been such a good target because he "wouldn't have been guarded so much"...WHY DIDN'T YOU VOTE TO GUARD HIM THEN??? If there's someone who you think has a greater chance of being wolfed than other people, of course you vote guard them. I see absolutely no reason why you wouldn't, unless you have the attitude of #3:

3.

Originally Posted by Afrobean

#2: He's human. This is good because we can hold it over Tass's head that he got lynched day 1 as a human. Basically, it would be really funny.

If everyone here acts like this, then you can count me out of all future TWG's. "hay guyz it would be so rofl if we lynchd him rite" yeah, not how the game is supposed to be played, and I really hope no one else does this, because it totally spoils the game for people who actually want to play.

EDIT: Thanks Guido, I'm glad I'm not the only sensible one here. ><

EDIT2: I also voted Tass. Tass also voted Tass.

[Tasselfoot]

ok ****tards... lets get 1 thing very clear, and then I'm done discussing and defending myself...

you are all god damn idiots.

1. Fish... awesome evidence there buddy. Only pulling from games where I was a wolf. How about all the games I was human and said the same thing?

2. the human team record is 10-1 when I survive to day 4 as a human. the human team record is 2-7 when I die night 4 or earlier as a human. that is FACT.

3. I said at least 3 different times pre-game / night 1 that I wanted to be guarded, as I have died night 1 the past THREE (not 4/5, just 3/3) games where I was human. I think that is fairly justified, especially given #2. I voted to guard myself, and at least 3 others did. I'm sure there were more.

4. If I HAD been a wolf... I would have attacked myself. 100% guarenteed. Why? I figured all you assholes wouldn't be so god damn conceited and would actually guard me... putting the team ahead of yourself. But no, you're selfish and think only of yourselves, not wanting to protect the human's most valuable asset because I'M BETTER THAN YOU. And given that I figured I'd have at least 9 or 10 human votes + 3 wolf votes to guard me... I'd take the 75%+ odds that I'd be saved. Then I'm instantly viewed as human.

The fact that I WASN'T attacked practically proves to you that I am human.

4. Afro, I understand the way you and Blah absolutely love to attack me on day 1. I assume part of it is strategy to see how others (and myself) react, but on a pretty obvious level, you just enjoy seeing me being defensive. Well, **** you. You are distracting everyone in this game from finding the wolves. There have been ~20 posts since day 1 started, and EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM has had my name in it.

5. Not only has everything I've said been correct (if not semi-obvious) in dealing with the bane and vigi... I also happen to be the overwhelmingly most knowledgable person when it comes to vigi strategy. See twg17 or 18, where I broke the role... when it had been used in 2 games prior, yet no one had thought of the flaw. When it comes to the vigi, I'm the expert. Period. Vigi a) CAN NOT come out. b) CAN NOT use their power at this stage in the game.


Back to you asshats and my love of making lists...

6. **** you, **** you, **** you to Blah and Afro... one more time. **** you. And a little bit of love. I'm out.

[Tasselfoot]

oh yea... 7. As Afro said, I'm pretty damn obvious when I'm a wolf. If I am in fact a wolf, I'm sure y'all will figure it out based on MY ACTIONS, instead of on absolutely BS logic such as, "wow... 1 person is dead. it wasn't Tass. Tass must be wolf then. lol!"

[Tasselfoot]

Honestly though.... every single post has been about me. Well, from all the attacks on me, I've seen some damn faulty logic.

Fish, Blah, and Afro have attacked me...
Flypie and Shash have defended me...
And TPS has attacked Shash for attacking me.
Cypher and Guido stayed fairly neutral.

And nobody else has posted.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Originally Posted by Tasselfoot

And nobody else has posted.

I posted four times during the night. (1 of them had nothing to do with twg though. XD.) And I don't think I mentioned your name at all.

I was kind of thinking the same logic that if tass was a wolf, and he campaigned to get guards, he would attack himself and get the guard. (I know if I was in the same situation I would have done the same thing but I'm crazy like that.) But tass mentioned it already and now there's the possibility of reverse so I'm back even on tass.

Besides even if tass is a wolf, leave him alone for a couple days XD. He does a lot of work for the humans and helps out a lot with strategies and getting peole to post. So I say to anyone that is suspicious but helpful to just let them go awhile longer.

Omega: is your post sarcastic? IMO talisman was number two in the guarding picks. I thought the talisman kill was a more ballsy kill (next to tass that is.)

blah: lol wtf

afro: lol ap is the vigi that's why he's the only one pushing for the vigi to come out despite the odds against it. (If the odds were good I could see a wolf trying to do it for sabotage but since the odds aren't great, ap is probabably trying to save himself and collect guardian picks for himself.)

Course by saying that, is ap more or less likely to get guardian picks from now on out XD.

Originally Posted by Shashakiro

1. Even if the wolves thought there would be a small chance, even only 15 or 20%, of Tass being guarded, IMO I don't think they'd have gone after him (which they didn't). Tass getting successfully guarded would be disastrous for them, it would basically confirm him as human and give the wolves all kinds of grief.

Tass as a wolf getting guarded would be game though XD. But he would have to think he had a better than 50% chance for that to happen.

Originally Posted by shash

If there's someone who you think has a greater chance of being wolfed than other people, of course you vote guard them.

XD, I voted talisman because I know wolves (in general) are pussies that don't go for the glory. Talisman was the next best person IMO that had a balance of skill but not draw enough votes to matter much. Tass is pretty much safe all game because the wolves know that he's GARANTEED SOME votes and therefore they wouldn't be willing to take that 30-40% chance of a guard lol.

I still think that everyone should give who they guarded last night. I mean yea the wolves could use that info for their kill, but I mean the humans can see that same info and change their picks around. Maybe spread it around so that there's no garanteed wolf kill. Make the wolves think hardler about their kills and therefore discern easier who would go for certain people. Because if the kills are the most expected everytime, you won't be able to gain much from it. And since we are in the dark for the whole game basically, we need as much info as we can get.

[Tasselfoot]

Iggy... everything I was saying in my triple post above was in dealing with DAY 1. Not night 1. Figured you'd have realized that since I made mention to there being 20 posts, and I only listed the people who had posted since day 1 started.

Other than that... I still disagree with making public who we chose the night before. Too much information for the wolves to have. Frankly, I don't think anyone else should reveal it. 4 or 5 people have already stated who they picked... that is more than enough.

[Shashakiro]

Iggy: That's fine, I was only referring to the people who were saying both that "Tass is too obvious a target so I won't guard him" and "The wolves should have/would have gone for Tass because no one would guard him because it was too obvious".

Those two statements just plain don't make sense together.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Originally Posted by Tasselfoot

Iggy... everything I was saying in my triple post above was in dealing with DAY 1. Not night 1.

Well I did post during the day but yea I see what you're saying now.

Originally Posted by tass

Other than that... I still disagree with making public who we chose the night before. Too much information for the wolves to have.

I don't see what the wolves would gain. I mean the fact that they would know who was most likely to be guarded would have little to no effect on the next night's kill IMO.

Think about it, if you looked at the kill picks, and saw that you got a lot of votes, then they would most likely stay away from you because you got picks. Also if they looked and saw someone like me, who probably didn't get any, it still wouldn't affect their kill because the humans may change their votes to get me some chance of being guarded.

Doubt is a very powerful tool in twg IMO. Yea there are numbers and percentages that dictate what could happen. But as far as practical value, a significant amount of risk = 0% chance of happening. So if you getting wolfed is only 20-30% then they wouldn't chance it because having you dead as a human is nice, but it's not worth having you being guarded. You see what I mean?

By showing everyone where the votes are going, it can balance it to a point where maybe 3 or 4 people are getting that 30% "doubt" and therefore you can save more people just from fear rather than actual percentages. I'm sure you'd love to have all the votes on you (who wouldn't lol) but that would mean that only 1 person is safe. What I'm saying is give people a chance to even it out so that maybe you, blah, ap, guido, etc can be safe also?

EX: say every reveals their picks and say it looked something like this:
tass: 9 votes
talisman: 2 votes
blah: 1 vote
ap: 3 votes
iggy: 1 vote XD

by looking at this you could discern that whoever voted for me and blah would be a wolf because no one really cares whether or not I live. I can be either helpful or hurtful to a human team.

And if wolves were to see this info they would think, "hey blah only got one vote..... kefit got no votes.... fish got no votes...." then they would go for them. BUT if a human looked at it, they would think, "hey I tass is pretty much covered, but blah is in danger of dying, better choose him next time."

So instead of having a 50% chance guard on you, and nothing on anyone else, we could cast more doubt on the wolves' pick by spreading it out. And therefore make the wolves think twice about trying to kill a better player.

And that would also lead to, "who would kill this guy." logic and that.

I mean any person would kill tass, ap, talisman, blah etc in order and then nothing would be able to be gained from those kills. But say, talisman, iggy, fish, tps die in that order, well that's giving you more variety and more info because the kils are more thought out.

This is all speculation of course. But when you say, "It's giving the wolves too much info." I don't really think that it does.

But there could be some common ground, like sending cypher our picks and he dictates who should get their guardian pick chances up. That way the same fear is cast on wolf kills, but they don't know who it would be and would be more hesistant to attack the better players.

We have a lot of good players so the line on who to guard is blurred IMO. But if the wolves think that their kill has a 20-40% chance of being guarded, maybe they would go for a lesser target.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Also if some higher authority was making sure that no one hogged all the picks, then the wolves wouldn't even think about killing one of their own in hopes for a guard.

But they would still fear the guard on a good player enough to change their mind and go for lower/other choices.

[blahblah18]

btw, no way I got one vote

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by Tasselfoot

4. Afro, I understand the way you and Blah absolutely love to attack me on day 1.

Am I really that transparent? Really though, you are obvious when you're a wolf, IF YOU HAVE A REASON TO. That's why I like to get on your case.

Oh and by the way about that selfish remark: Tass, I was pretty damn sure that you wouldn't be wolfed last night. Call it gut, I guess, but I really just didn't think it would happen. Also, it would only be selfish if people voted for themselves.

Personally, I voted for *typed this post up before thinking things over... decided against revealing who exactly*. I thought briefly about Talisman but I figured he too was too obvious of a kill for the wolves to bother with it. I guess I overshot the goal though.

oh and btw, some of you guys need to get a sense of humor.

ps

I'm sure you'd love to have all the votes on you (who wouldn't lol) but that would mean that only 1 person is safe.

No one is 100% safe in this game no matter what. If the wolves are backed into a corner, they WILL take a risky kill over a safe one.

*note to iggy: Revealing who you voted to guard doesn't help anyone. All it does is add another layer to the thinking in guessing who to guard. I'd rather keep things like that as simple as possible, thank you very much.

[Tasselfoot]

Originally Posted by Iggy

Doubt is a very powerful tool in twg IMO.

Originally Posted by Afro

note to iggy: Revealing who you voted to guard doesn't help anyone. All it does is add another layer to the thinking in guessing who to guard. I'd rather keep things like that as simple as possible, thank you very much.

Afro basically hit exactly what I wanted to say. Based on what you said above, there is ZERO difference between revealing or not revealing. And by not revealing, we aren't giving the wolves ANY info, even info that would be potentially misleading.

I'd rather give no info than any info, regardless of how helpful it is.

Also, going to Cypher and having him relay back guard picks isn't a good idea either. Because he'd have to give picks back to the wolves, and based on who they were told to guard, they can gain information. They also would likely not guard the person they were told to...

[Tasselfoot]

Where are FoJaR, Kefit, and ap?

And Wilkin, Omega, Fish, Guido, flypie, and TPS have all said very little...

lol. calling out 60% of the game. sad.

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by Tasselwolf

I'd rather give no info than any info, regardless of how helpful it is.

That was probably the worst possible way of saying that.

I know what you mean, but what you said there boils down to "I don't want information getting out, even if it's helpful."

[Tasselfoot]

ehh... maybe i did say it wrong. to phrase better...

revealing our past guards IS a little bit helpful to the humans. but at the same time, it is at least equally as helpful to the wolves.

as such, there is no point in revealing it, because in 2 fairly equal situations, i'd rather not give the wolves info than give them info.

[Omeganitros]

OOOH, Afrobean's posts are making me really mad! Afrobean, I really hope were just testing reactions. Anyways,

Originally Posted by iggymatrixcounter

Tass is pretty much safe all game because the wolves know that he's GARANTEED SOME votes and therefore they wouldn't be willing to take that 30-40% chance of a guard lol.

I'm pretty sure Tasselfoot was only safe for last night, because he asked everyone really really really nicely to not be killed Night 1. Now that his wish has been granted, my guess is that he's on his own the rest of the game.

Wilkin: Wait, so on Night 3, there's a 25% of a guarding if 3 wolves all lotto one person and wolf them? Oh man, that's pretty good odds, and they keep increasing every night. That's like...Woah, dude.

My suspicions: Everyone who has posted that they don't think Tass got the most lotto votes last night. Could easily be a wolf just opposing their own reasoning they used to wolf talisman. Or, maybe, they really did oppose the idea but the other wolves didn't.
Or maybe a human that thinks Tass wasn't a popular choice.
In fact, now that I think about it, that's something a wolf would probably avoid publically disagreeing with, because it puts a lot of attention on them.
Whatever.

Sorry I haven't spoken up much, I've been playing Dawn of War (5 hours, and I still haven't beaten the 4th mission. I am SO OCD when it comes to RTS.)

[Tasselfoot]

Well, assuming there are 3 wolves left going into night 4... there would be 10 players, 3 are wolves, 30% chance. 3/12 for night 3, or 25%. That is all assuming that there are a full load of wolves left.

If they really want to chance killing one of their own on a 25% or 30% shot... go for it. I'm ok with those odds. and I don't see them doing it night 5, since if they had 3 wolves on night 5, they'd win with a human lynch of day 5. No sense risking 5/8 shot of dying and extending the game another day vs 1 wolf being "proven" human for that 1 day.

But, that is the other thing with human revealing their past guards... it might show a trend of multiple humans guarding 1 specific wolf. take 2 human + 3 wolves all guarding 1 person on night 4... 50% shot.


Finally, Omega... yea, I asked really nicely to be guarded last night. But at the same time, I am still a valuable asset and I see no reason why I wouldn't see be picked by at least a few people. I know I'm going to continue picking myself. *shrugs*. Consider that selfish... kinda is, but I also feel I'm the best shot at the human winning... which you could call egotistical. But I'll call it fact.

[FishFishRevolution]

Originally Posted by Tasselfoot

Where are FoJaR, Kefit, and ap?

And Wilkin, Omega, Fish, Guido, flypie, and TPS have all said very little...

lol. calling out 60% of the game. sad.

Tass: lol i'm so great look at me eorieorieorieorieori

Seriously, shut up, I've been doing stuff today becuase i've finally gotten a break. Now that people are gone, I'll gladly take a look at what people have said, which will probably result* in a vote on you 8)

<3

*EDIT: it said resort rofl

[aperson]

I read this thread then when it was still lame and empty then went out and bought clothes and played DDR. I came back and found out that Tass finally got enough flexibility to suck his own dick.

But really Tass, isn't the best operative mode to proclaim what you have as the best strategy while keeping the true best strategy under wraps for yourself? You said that if you were a wolf you would definitely wolf yourself night one to get the guard and rape everything. Since that didn't outcome didn't occur, you must not be a wolf. I call bullshit. You know you wouldn't risk that, and you know that the odds ultimately won't be very heavily in your favor, because logically at most half of the people will be voting for you. You know there will be a lot of people on some other tier of sicilian thinking putting guard votes on me, talisman, or on other people who are on a rung near you. You know that this risky probability is too volatile for you to want to put everything on the line, so please go on trying to blow smoke up our asses and stroking your own ego, because all it does is bring more dumb slipups you make to light.

I don't want to throw a vote on you yet, because ultimately your monolithic ego is slightly justified... but damn dude, you aren't doing well so far.

[blahblah18]

man , Tass will rue the day he didn't have AP wolfed night 1