TWG 203 Werewolves in Avalon GAME THREAD

[Jub3r7]

Maybe I'm biased but when I saw the flip vote by Manti which saved my life I didn't think it was suspicious at the time because he was taking his vote off of me! But Charu's reasoning is a lot more clear. Could be confirmation bias but it definitely doesn't feel like a wolf play to switch from one town to another town at the last second.

On the other hand, every time I read MML's posts I really struggle to find points of common ground.

[Jub3r7]

I'm still fine with a wv vote but I'm gonna reread d1 cause i think I've been too tired to process the argument on page 23.

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

Good post! Except for the manti over mml read I still don't understand that

I mean, nothing he has said so far seems that weird, just solid observations mixed with some reads and pokes. The manti vote post being one thing that I actually really liked since it came out around the same time I was suspicious of him.

Maybe im just getting pocketed since he joined me on manti but im doubtful.

if u have any big issues with his posts that im missing point them out and ill check it out

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

Maybe I'm biased but when I saw the flip vote by Manti which saved my life I didn't think it was suspicious at the time because he was taking his vote off of me! But Charu's reasoning is a lot more clear. Could be confirmation bias but it definitely doesn't feel like a wolf play to switch from one town to another town at the last second.

On the other hand, every time I read MML's posts I really struggle to find points of common ground.

I realize i might be tunneling on the EoD vote switch stuff too much but i mean...no matter what the reasons for it end up being that seems like a play you see from a wolf with more info than everyone else and not a town d0. I know manti is a shotcaller but does he really do something like that eod on d0?

he was indifferent on both juber and FFA, why not push someone he was actually suspicious of like me? (If u can call shading my ancient wolf tendencies suspicion.)

[FreezinIce]

i realize once the wagons form up you should vote between them but why mess around controlling the eod if you dont care about either of the wagons? I dont really buy the reaction test excuse, that just seems like weak after the fact justification once he started getting heat for it.

I at least expected something like "Well i dont like/care about either of these wagons but I guess ill vote X because Y and Z." I dont see that from manti anywhere.

[MixMasterLar]

Before I catch up, it's my YouTube channel's Sixth Anniversary, so I wanted to shill that for a second and share my little accomplishment with the game

[MixMasterLar]

Ok well that was fast, lol

@Jub3r7: I asked you several questions a page ago that I would appriciate you going back and answering. How I read you depends on these answers

I like Freezin's last few posts but it ain't like he's rocking the boat or anything, pretty standard takes for the game in it's current state. The one thing I disagree on is that I do think we have two active wolves and one that's trying to go UTR. Part of that is my scum reads, part of it is but, part of it is angle shooty because the set up is interesting from the wolve's perspective and I simply think they'd be more active because of it.

Otherwise yeah Freezin isn't saying anything that makes him a priority to solve right now.

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

Maybe I'm biased but when I saw the flip vote by Manti which saved my life I didn't think it was suspicious at the time because he was taking his vote off of me! But Charu's reasoning is a lot more clear. Could be confirmation bias but it definitely doesn't feel like a wolf play to switch from one town to another town at the last second.

I'm extremely curious on what you think a wolf would do instead.

Also, is the first town you're talking about me? Because if not then you're missing the most sus part of the whole thing.

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

On the other hand, every time I read MML's posts I really struggle to find points of common ground.

If you've read them, answer them

[MixMasterLar]

I feel depending on Jub3r's responses I might change the vote order to Manti -> Jub -> Roundbox -> Raeko/WV

I feel good about Bug, Freezin and Charu as solid towns, there'll have to be a big development for me to re-consider them

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

I feel depending on Jub3r's responses I might change the vote order to Manti -> Jub -> Roundbox -> Raeko/WV

I feel good about Bug, Freezin and Charu as solid towns, there'll have to be a big development for me to re-consider them

what puts raeko near the bottom for you?

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

what puts raeko near the bottom for you?

A combination of lack of Raeko (which happens when she's town as much as when she's wolf, rather I like to admit that or not) and the other three just being stronger scum reads. Obviously depending on flips and responses this order can change but where I sit now I think this is a winning lynch order.

If she does the thing where she really just posts 5 times reactively and dips, I could see myself bumping her up on the tier list, especially since Round will likely be more active later in the game as either alignment.

[mellon_collie]

Hi sorry I'm here I should have been around yesterday but I forgot I'm sorry

Haven't been in TWG-mode for too long

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

If she does the thing where she really just posts 5 times reactively and dips, I could see myself bumping her up on the tier list, especially since Round will likely be more active later in the game as either alignment.

This isn't gonna happen we are both going to be in the same car driving to his parent's house for Thanksgiving from like 4-10PM server time so EOD might be kinda iffy for both of us


Reading thread now

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

If she does the thing where she really just posts 5 times reactively and dips, I could see myself bumping her up on the tier list, especially since Round will likely be more active later in the game as either alignment.

I misread I thought you said "later in the phase" not "later in the game"

But my point about EOD is still true lol

[MixMasterLar]

Well, good to have the heads up on your schedule then. Hope you guys drive safe and have fun!

But before all that, give us those juicy, detailed reads---write us a full novel of the stuff

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

Maybe I'm biased but when I saw the flip vote by Manti which saved my life I didn't think it was suspicious at the time because he was taking his vote off of me! But Charu's reasoning is a lot more clear. Could be confirmation bias but it definitely doesn't feel like a wolf play to switch from one town to another town at the last second.

This part of this post screams town to me. Something about this mindset seems like he is basing this read more off the information he actually has (FFA's alignment and his own alignment). Rather than basing reads off things posted in the thread as a wolf would have to pick apart people's posts to come up with theories. IDK, if I'm reading this correctly I can understand where he's coming from based on his perspective that nobody else would have had about that EOD

[MixMasterLar]

You need more then "didn't vote for me" to townread someone, especially considering all the arguments against Manti right now.

It's a surface level read that so far hasn't been expanded upon

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by bugkid666

i think because of how easy yesterday's vote was, it's safe to assume that there might be wolves on both wagons. i didn't like raeko's vote on ffa actually. her comment about how her gut went with jub but still voted for ffa felt out of character to me. i would like for her to defend herself though, because she hasn't been very present (this isn't really out of character for her though).

This was for a few reasons. One was that Jub hadn't been around for a while by the time EOD rolled around and it felt kind of like a "kill the inactive D1" situation. I am generally not a fan of going for inactives so early in the game because I think it is too easy for wolves to slip in without having to cover their asses too much, and also I just wanted to give him more time to play properly

I also wasn't getting strong town vibes from FFA this game. I pretty regularly get strong town vibes from town FFA when I play with him. I know this is vague but I just didn't feel those vibes from him in this game, something felt slightly off

[DarkManticoreX2]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

i realize once the wagons form up you should vote between them but why mess around controlling the eod if you dont care about either of the wagons? I dont really buy the reaction test excuse, that just seems like weak after the fact justification once he started getting heat for it.

I at least expected something like "Well i dont like/care about either of these wagons but I guess ill vote X because Y and Z." I dont see that from manti anywhere.

It's there. Might not be at the end of the day as time was running short but you've already stated this and i've answered it

Originally Posted by DarkManticoreX2

You’ve been playing with too lazy town. FFA was the better lynch between juber and him. Juber wouldn’t have even been a respectable second wagon without my vote to try to make the wagons competitive. We had roundbox who was meh about his vote and your completely inactive D1 with a side vote of juber + shadow god.

I’ll take the FFA wagon because I like the people on it better.

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

You need more then "didn't vote for me" to townread someone, especially considering all the arguments against Manti right now.

It's a surface level read that so far hasn't been expanded upon

I know what you're saying but I still feel the same way about it. The way he is focusing on that rather than the walls of texts of posts that he could be picking apart is what seems town to me. I think a wolf would be more interested in picking apart the posts looking for contradictions

Not saying I think the read is good or correct, just that it comes from a town-y mindset

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

I have thoughts on Raeko but I want to give her a chance to respond before I poison the well, sort of speak.

TELL ME THOSE THOUGHTS I'll be around on and off for most of today

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by DarkManticoreX2

It's there. Might not be at the end of the day as time was running short but you've already stated this and i've answered it

i was kind of looking for something said before what u did eod