TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

[StoicRoivaS]

Good in theory, but there's very little chance that'll work, and the wolf will just claim they "couldn't get on" or something.

[Tokzic]

The point of the plan is that we try it. If it works, a 25% chance, then we basically have the game won for us. If it doesn't, we go with two seperate alliances, which is basically what you guys want to do anyway, so I don't see why you'd oppose it, or have another go. Like nforcer said, it's riskier the more we do it, but the possibility is still there.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Originally Posted by Tokzic

To prevent this, like I said, we should organize a time for all seereds to come out at once. This will prevent the red seer from dawdling and seeing if he can come out to his seered without risk to identity.

AGRE/DISAGRE?

I actually would think this would be the best way to do it if that is what happens but you have to garantee that they will be on on that time.

[StoicRoivaS]

We definitely should try. How bout a time tomorrow evening when the most people will be on? Maybe the people that won't be on can find a way to get the info out or something.

[Tokzic]

I have all of tomorrow off, so I'm fine with anytime.

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by StoicRoivaS

@afro:



Odds aren't that bad. 2 red millers and 4 wolves, 33% of accidentally killing a red, 66% chance hitting a wolf. I'm not sure which I like better but I still don't think the wolves would go for public greens. Why waste a kill on a known non-blue? Yeah it's a confirmed out of the way, but in a two seer game I'd rather take my chances blue hunting. That's my guess anyways.

o

Well maybe push for the lynch seer'd reds (that is blindly push for them with mostly bs logic... not like it'd matter in the first few days with such a small "alliance" at the time) until the two alliances are put together, at which time I feel that finding greens should be the chief goal.

Either way, I really don't like the idea of lynching someone JUST because they're seer'd red and that seems to be the plan that everyone else is pushing for. I'd rather build a team of humans and use process of elimination to choose who to lynch.

And nforcer, don't be stupid. Just because he doesn't agree with you doesn't make him a wolf. Hell, should I vote for you because I don't like your plan? Obviously, that's not the best course of action here and it will only lead to revenge votes and bickering.

[StoicRoivaS]

Yeah, I don't think it should be instant lynch of reds. I'd rather seer at least a 3 person mini alliance be formed before the proverbial crap starts hitting the fan of proverbs. 66% isn't terrible, but it sets us back noticeably in the event that it's one of the millers (clearly). 2 seers is a huge deal, and with no master I think they can lay back for a little while and hopefully hit a green or two.

[StoicRoivaS]

PS [/obvious]

[FoJaR]

afro

[Afrobean]

rofl@fojar

[FoJaR]

zero errors, zero warnings.

[Kilgamayan]

I'm not so sure the wolves will go blue hunting at night as much as some people seem to think they will. Aside from the two seers, there's nothing interesting to shoot at. Not to mention there are also two proxy mines floating around, a complication not previously seen, as well as a couple of seer distractions in the form of red millers that I'm sure they'd rather stay alive if possible.

If I were a wolf and a confirmed human came out in the thread I'd kill them. Better than letting them keep their soap box and megaphone if the seer they're attached to finds me or one of my buddies in addition to the risk of blowing myself up overnight.

But that's just me.

[xObserveRx]

I think Kilga hit the nail right on the head.

Most of us are worried about the wolves blue hunting which IS a concern for sure, but if you look at how the wolves SHOULD be playing this game, Killing ANYONE that's not a wolf is a benefit to them.

Nailing a blue would be nice, but when there's a 50/50 chance of the blue your seer saw is a kamikaze, it's really not the best option. Confirmed humans that have come out would be the safest and most likely best bets for wolf kills.

There's no getting around either having seers or their pawns come out, but at this point, it looks like that's the best option we have.

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by xObserveRx

There's no getting around either having seers or their pawns come out, but at this point, it looks like that's the best option we have.

Um... It's called "let the alliance grow and use logic and deduction to try to find wolves." By the time endgame would be approaching, there should be a mason-like team of greens ready to pick off those who haven't been seer'd green.

By the way, did you guys know that typing on a wiimote can get really annoying, especially when you decide to use formatting like I did above, or when you go into a long sentence explaining that wii typing can get to be annoying.

[JurseyRider734]

I agree with the whole "humans coming out at one time" deal, but doing this could also not work out in our favor. Say the wolf seer saw a human, one seer saw a human, and one seer saw a red. Most likely either one or two of the humans would actually come out and say they were seen, and it would be hard to distinguish if one human "belonged" to the wolf seer or not. In the event that the wolf seer WON'T go to their human they saw (they most likely won't, because it would be too easy for them to get caught...) only one human would come out. Still, there could be the possibility the two human seers saw reds and the one wolf seer saw a human, and used that advantage to get into an alliance. I'm betting on the human seers not even going to that human for fear of getting involved in an alliance that includes a wolf.

[nforcer06164]

jurs, we're doing a timeframe thing to prevent that from happening. If a wolf sends a human claiming "I was seered" into the thread, how can he/she know that the real seers didn't both get humans? Way too risky for the wolves, especially with two kamikazes in the game that can easily get a wolf killed during the night.

Originally Posted by iggymatrixcounter

I say no. I gave you your "counterpoints" and your plan only has a 20-30% chance of working today. The likely senario strings a confirmed human out to dry.

Having the seers work hiddenly has just as many benefits as your plan does except the the seer alliances have to be more discreet in their lynching methods. And 3 days later there may be an overlap and then the alliances will be brought together without anyone being needlessly sacrifaced.

Besides, I'm surprised that you're advocating a human alliance anyways nforcer, you usually want the game to be played through the people and not an alliance where everything is decided for you.

I'm ignoring you because you're the only one that doesn't think it's a good idea to get the seers in contact, and you haven't mention any advantage to the seer picks being hidden. All I got from you was a roundabout way of saying, "But it's better." Oh, and I advocate the best way to win. I'm sorry you're not thinking like today.

My vote on iggy, afro, is because he's disagreeing with a very productive plan if it works right. If it doesn't work, we only lose a confirmed human at worst, who may very well be a kamikaze. Remember, the seer only sees if someone is "human" or "not human" =)

[iggymatrixcounter]

I'm not against the seers getting in contact. You assume that the only way they can contact each other is by your plan which has so many chances of going wrong that even if it did work, in practical purposes, maybe people won't believe it anyways.

I like the seers working by themselves because chances are they will seer the same green report at some point and will combine themselves on their own without having to go through the politics of credibility that your plan has.

[nforcer06164]

Yeah, so eventually the seers will hit the same person. What, on Day 4? 5? And the wolves have less of a chance of hitting one seer that the seers choosing the same human, huh? There's a far lesser chance of the seers randomly getting in contact than by actually making some effort towards it. If this plan fails today, as I said, the risk grows and the plan should be void (unless we decide otherwise; I'm wary of going beyond Day 1 myself). Honestly, what is your aversion to effort this game? Why can't we at least try something that is incredibly helpful instead of sitting back and letting the alliance work on its own, with less of a chance of favorable result? Stop being so bullheaded.

Also, as we've been discussing the advantages of the wolves actually killing the confirmed humans instead of stabbing randomly. The funny thing here is, any "confirmed human" that comes out as a seer pick might actually be a kamikaze, because the seer cannot distinguish between blues and non-blues. So, the wolves are essentially stabbing in the dark for the entire game. Confirmed humans coming out in the thread means absolutely nothing except having what I would call "trust status".

And in case it wasn't clear from what I just mentioned...

IF YOU ARE A KAMIKAZE, DO NOT REVEAL YOUR STATUS TO ANYBODY.

If we decide to go ahead and have seered humans come out, you can state that you are human, but do not tell anyone you are a kamikaze. You'll get destroyed by the wolf vigilantes, and we'll lose a valuable role.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Originally Posted by nforcer06164

Honestly, what is your aversion to effort this game? Why can't we at least try something that is incredibly helpful instead of sitting back and letting the alliance work on its own, with less of a chance of favorable result? Stop being so bullheaded.

1st bolded) Your plan is subjectively helpful since if it goes wrong it goes wrong in a big way. I don't think you're seeing this either. Your plan only works if both seers saw a green report last night. Yes it's a chance but the risk of it is one pawn comes out and no one else contests him and that guy dies and the seers still don't know who's who. THAT's the risk that I'm against.

Yes maybe the seers won't overlap until day4,5. But that would mean that 10-12 players will be identified which means the wolf count will be lower anyways. If the seers don't find each other, that means that there's no overlap and therefore less and less unknowns are out there. (Granted one group may push for the unknown lynch of someone who is known in the other group. But each group may save seer'd greens especially if the vote is close and an unknown player is on the chopping block.)

2nd bolded) If the seers don't find each other according to your plan, people will be wolfed without any good reason and seer picks will never grow. If the seers don't find each other according to my plan, the overall lynch pool still shrinks and convert action needs to be taken to save your alliance.

If the two seers find themselves today, you garantee no overlap for the rest of the game and the lynch pool knowlingly shrinks and people know stuff is happening. If the seers eventually find each other in my plan you have maybe 1 or 2 players overlapped (because maybe they both seered the same red in addition to the green that links them together) and everything is done without the wolves ever knowing it happened.

I still say hidden is the way to go. It's more of an active role for the seers themselves but it doesn't throw out 1 or 2 confirmed greens to the wolves.

[blahblah18]

sending seered humans out is dumb, you can't form an alliance and that's way more important then having a voice to keep all you people from thinking... man up and let's talk this through though... I want to hear from everyone, but my statement for you all to interpret as you wish is that sending out a confirmed human as a sacrifice is stupid because the wolves will take the bait correctly everytime... ESpECIALLY after its already been mentioned in this thread to do so