jTWG LXXI: Harry Potter and the Rise of the Wolves - Game Thread

[reuben_tate]

for today's lynch in the case that we are in a world with 1 wolf currently*

[reuben_tate]

So to recap, the viable candidates are:

If there is only 1 wolf alive: Tiloco
If there are 2 wolves alive: Tiloco and Melissa

So in any case, I think Tiloco would be a good lynch candidate.

[reuben_tate]

Originally Posted by Jtehanonymous

Or it would leave Tiloco and you as the wolves in a two wolf world. After all, he felt very negatively about you in the beginning as well, but then you ROCKETED up his town list and were top town behind t force. When i have suspicions on somehow, I find it much much harder to assimilate someone back into town. He could be protecting you since this is a no flip game.

You have a good point. If you're looking for an answer for why I shot up his town's list though, he's the only one that would be able to give the answer. Speculating however, I think it was my page-flood that we was fond of.

What do you think of us being a pair now after my combination analysis points to me wanting to have him lynched today?

[Jtehanonymous]

Originally Posted by reuben_tate

To be honest, I only skimmed the thread for D1, so I forget the exact reasoning why town agreed that DFR / Melissa pair isn't a possible pair. I'll eliminate that pair for now and check back in the thread...I'm sure it's a stupidly obvious reason and I'm just not thinking straight at the moment.

With this, I believe the reasoning goes as follows:

dfr wouldn't have made the kill on funnygurl night one because he had fg as his only major red lean. (he was the only one to find her suspicious)

If Melissa was dfr's partner, dfr would probably be calling the shots and saying who they should kill each night because dfr is the more experienced player.

That's why people fell off the idea of melissa/dfr pairing.

[Jtehanonymous]

Originally Posted by reuben_tate

You have a good point. If you're looking for an answer for why I shot up his town's list though, he's the only one that would be able to give the answer. Speculating however, I think it was my page-flood that we was fond of.

What do you think of us being a pair now after my combination analysis points to me wanting to have him lynched today?

Yeah, I'll wait on tiloco to explain how his reads on you have evolved throughout the game and why, hearing that may help me make a decision.

After reading over all your combinations you've presented and following your logic of throwing out pairings one by one, I now want to lynch between tiloco and you. T-force attempted to seer you so there is that lingering thought in the back of my mind there. For Tiloco, he was the public "seer" target and yet wolves did not attack him which could very well mean he is a wolf and clearly couldn't "attack" himself.

Melissa is obviously the final choice for me right now.

I don't want to jump on anything at present and need Tiloco in here first and responding before I decide.

[Red Blaster]

Lol it seems tiloco has given up.

[tiloco217]

Sorry guys. went to bed at 9 server time and didn't wake up until about 30 minutes ago. The fact that I was both wrong on red (although red's play was horse shit and he needs to get better) and wasn't able to get seered sucks. I will go through my opinions of people and how they have evolved in my next post as well as go through possible worlds and why I am town. I expect this post to take at least an hour though so be prepared to wait.

[tiloco217]

All of the remaining possible combinations are below. I am including the worlds that involve me even though I know that they are not true because I know that just saying I am town will not be enough, I have to prove it.

Reuben/ melissa
reuben/ tiloco
reuben/ jteh
Melissa / Tiloco
Melissa / Jteh
Tiloco / Jteh
riot/ melissa
riot/ tiloco
riot/ jteh
DFR/ melissa
DFR/ tiloco
DFR/ jteh
DFR/ reuben

I am going to start by evaluating the worlds with myself in them
riot/ tiloco - is obviously out as I am the first one that really pushed on him. Reuben voted first but I was the one pushing on him. Also when people were rapidly backing off of him I did not.

DFR/ tiloco - If this was the pairing then why wouldn't I even consider moving my vote to Melissa in the last vote? I was very adamant about the fact that it wouldn't matter whether I rescinded my vote or not because there was almost no chance I was switching. As mafia there is no reason to continue that pressure on a partner.

Jteh/ tiloco - He was my very first mafia read because of his odd posting pattern and I pushed on him quite a bit. I think he is towny now because of mostly the same reasons I town read reuben. He was mostly inactive but at the times that he was active he was able to bring very good information.

Reuben/ tiloco - My town read on him has been being discussed so I will explain that here. I was reading him as a potential mafia up until his page of content. I think that the fact that he was willing and able to bring up that much content especially when nobody was around for him to talk to was very towny. As for now I think his interactions at eod was strange and makes a pairing of DFR and him a possibility as I will explain later.

Melissa/ tiloco - This is the hardest one for me to discredit as I have read her as town for a majority of the game. The reason I read her as town early was her comfortableness when she was first pressured. I thought her non-interaction at the first eod was strange but in my opinion it was viable that since there wasn't really pressure on her that she just didn't decide to speak up. I think she needs more pressure put on her today but I think she has played towny so far.

Before I go into the other worlds I am going to explain why I am town even further. For one you can look at my last game where I was mafia. My reads in that game were always very confident and I hardly ever flipped. This game my reads have not stayed the same on almost anyone. Actually I think the only person whose read I did not waver on was funny and she wasn't here except for the one day. I have also been putting pressure on practically everyone and have read most of them as town. As mafia in the last game I put pressure only on people I wanted to get lynched. I didn't ask hardly any questions or made anyone talk because as mafia that is getting out information which is the opposite of what you want. I also was very adamant about the seer being on me which is a terrible idea. I even said "don't WIFOM it" because I really wanted to be green checked. There is no way that I take that risk as mafia and there is even less of a chance that I kill T-force because of all the people here I think he is the only one that would not have checked me. As a side note T-force was obviously so confident on his town read on me that even though I was hard pushing on his green check he still didn't want to check me. As for my mafia read on red obviously I was wrong but I am still going to blame that completely on him. His inability to come up with any reasoning on why he had the reads that he did is dumb and it is a really good thing that T-force came out with a green on him because I doubt that he would have figured out how to defend himself.

I don't want to go into as deep of detail on each of the rest of the worlds as I did on the first few because that would take forever so I am going to cut out all of the worlds I think don't work. If you want to know why I cut out any of the worlds just ask me.

reuben/ jteh
Melissa / Jteh
riot/ melissa
riot/ jteh
DFR/ reuben

Jteh actually appears in the most worlds so maybe I need to look at him more. I did see his reasoning on why himself and melissa doesn't make sense but that's not good enough in my opinion. He didn't end up voting for her and if a mafia partner is going down it is perfectly acceptable to bus them. I don't know Jteh's meta but as for myself I would probably do almost exactly what he did if I was in his position and I can back that up by pointing out me bussing both of my partners in the last game.With Jteh being in both worlds of two makes him the safest lynch but I think he's been rather towny. Honestly I think we have lost if there is a world of two anyways because I seriously doubt red will change his opinion of me even though I have brought up so many reasons why it doesn't make sense.

I want to hear reuben's reads. He has brought up the statistics but I know he would do that as mafia because he did it in the last game and I think that he would do it as town too. Hearing more from Melissa is very important at this point because she hasn't ever gone in depth on her reads. I want to know your opinions on all of the remaining players and how those opinions have updated throughout the game. Knowing red's opinions would be helpful but I think he is incapable of logical reasoning so I doubt that will happen

Red - for the love of god, please read this.

[Red Blaster]

Who's tiloco throwing into his "certain mafia" pile now.

[tiloco217]

I have been doing this for an hour and a half so I am going to take a break but ask any questions you have and I will get to them.

[Red Blaster]

TLDR

Nah just kidding, I've actually reread everything at this point, minus the ninja post by tiloco which I skimmed because it's mostly pairing up of potential wolves which is a play style I don't particularly care to go for.

[tiloco217]

For the most part it's actually an analysis of why I am town which makes it very important for you to read

[Red Blaster]

Originally Posted by tiloco217

For the most part it's actually an analysis of why I am town which makes it very important for you to read

At this point you, jteh and ben are all making identical posts. And each of you is saying that 'xxx appears in my wolf pairings more so they should be our lynch'. Obviously nobody's going to put themselves in the potential pair, so it's already at two "votes" against you right off the bat.

It'd actually be nice to hear from Melissa for once, and hopefully not some crazy wolf pairing analysis.


On the subject of remaining wolves, I think it's best to just proceed with the notion that both are still alive. If we lynch one and it's game over, great..but we definitely need to be playing as if it's worst case scenario.

[Red Blaster]

Originally Posted by tiloco217

I also was very adamant about the seer being on me which is a terrible idea. I even said "don't WIFOM it" because I really wanted to be green checked. There is no way that I take that risk as mafia and there is even less of a chance that I kill T-force because of all the people here I think he is the only one that would not have checked me. As a side note T-force was obviously so confident on his town read on me that even though I was hard pushing on his green check he still didn't want to check me.

Knowing red's opinions would be helpful but I think he is incapable of logical reasoning so I doubt that will happen

Red - for the love of god, please read this.

Lol you bring up a good point, you wanted the seer on you and conveniently the seer turned up dead before he could give us the information. This really gives the tiloco/ben team some solid footing granted that T-Force outted himself with minutes to go and both of you were in the thread at that time. You could've easily changed the kill at that time if it wasn't already on him.

The fact you included that in your 'I'm gonna prove I'm human' post is actually hilarious.

[tiloco217]

that is ridiculous. This requires me to have figured out who the seer was before having made the post about wanting to be checked and have been confident that even though t-force was the one to bring it up that I was still sure I could find the cop. This also means that I had to be sticking around to change the kill but then decide to not post anything in the thread (because ben obviously missed the start of the day while typing his post about teams). There is no way I ever take the chance of the cop checking me as mafia. Not only that, but if I were mafia then why do I push on you during the night if I am expecting a red check on me the next day. It would make you extremely town if a cop came out with a red on me and I had been pushing for a lynch on you.

[Red Blaster]

Originally Posted by tiloco217

that is ridiculous. This requires me to have figured out who the seer was before having made the post about wanting to be checked and have been confident that even though t-force was the one to bring it up that I was still sure I could find the cop. This also means that I had to be sticking around to change the kill but then decide to not post anything in the thread (because ben obviously missed the start of the day while typing his post about teams). There is no way I ever take the chance of the cop checking me as mafia. Not only that, but if I were mafia then why do I push on you during the night if I am expecting a red check on me the next day. It would make you extremely town if a cop came out with a red on me and I had been pushing for a lynch on you.

Is that not exactly what happened last night?
When I was seered green you shot up on a lot of peoples red lists.

[reuben_tate]

Is there a Harry Potter spell that can be used to summon Melissa? If there was OoT, I would drive to campus, march to her dorm room, and tell her to get her ass on twg because at this point, it's going to be hard for us to move anywhere in this day phase if she doesn't show up and say something.

[reuben_tate]

Also, thanks for your post Tiloco. You make a pretty convincing case for why you're town, both from considering the pairings and looking at your plays independently. It did seem that the Melissa / Tiloco pairing you had seemed more like you just explaining why you think she's town as opposed to discussing your interactions with her so that wasn't very satisfying, but given how she's been somewhat inactive throughout a lot of this game, she hasn't had a lot of interactions with people so it's hard to analyze wolf pairings that involve her.

Also, I want to know, if we are currently in a one wolf world, between DFR and riot, who do you think was the wolf and what do you think about the likelihood of the other person being wolf? And in a one wolf world where DFR was the other wolf and I was the other, why, in the end, would I have decided to insta him? If we were both wolves, wouldn't it make more sense for me to leave it as a kitb?

[Red Blaster]

I hate how people being absent in twg is becoming a thing.

[tiloco217]

Originally Posted by reuben_tate

Also, thanks for your post Tiloco. You make a pretty convincing case for why you're town, both from considering the pairings and looking at your plays independently. It did seem that the Melissa / Tiloco pairing you had seemed more like you just explaining why you think she's town as opposed to discussing your interactions with her so that wasn't very satisfying, but given how she's been somewhat inactive throughout a lot of this game, she hasn't had a lot of interactions with people so it's hard to analyze wolf pairings that involve her.

Also, I want to know, if we are currently in a one wolf world, between DFR and riot, who do you think was the wolf and what do you think about the likelihood of the other person being wolf? And in a one wolf world where DFR was the other wolf and I was the other, why, in the end, would I have decided to insta him? If we were both wolves, wouldn't it make more sense for me to leave it as a kitb?

As for myself and Melissa there isn't much else to talk about. Like you said she has been very quiet so I haven't had too many interactions with her.

I think DFR was a much more likely mafia but Riot being mafia is a possibility as well. As for why you would hammer DFR you didn't really have a choice at that point. After you had been called out for calling DFR more mafia then Melissa then you really didn't have any choice. However you calling him mafia originally is a decent argument against that partnership. I still think it is possible that you were partners because you did originally go for Melissa which could have been trying to take advantage of Red being wrong (before you freak out this is in a world of DFR and reuben being mafia) and trying to push a miss-lynch through