TWG XV - #twgxv (Humans Win. Huzzah.) - Page 3

05-7-2005, 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nforcer06164

So, my idea is that they most likely went for an average player that we believe we can trust, and make them the master wolf so they can slip into an alliance and feed back info to their wolf buddies.

Now we go back to the "which cup has the poison" question. What is the wolves knew we were going to think that and thus decided to mark a power player? When would the second-guessing end?

I don't think we can operate like this. It's stupid for the wolves to not pick a power player for reasons I've iterated many times in previous posts, and it's really really stupid for them to make a master someone who won't be seered.

On the other hand, what I see now that really worries me is that we're only looking after power players as potential wolves. Wolves are random, and it's a good bet some newbie wolf is using this as an opportunity to fly under the radar, stay out of conversation, and not make waves.

**Tasselfoot** · 05-7-2005, 12:26 PM

Still waiting to speak to Mead, Spheroid, and Flypie. After I talk with them I'll be able to figure some things out.

**aperson** · 05-7-2005, 12:45 PM

Okay guys, this 'which cup has the poison' debate has some merit, and please, can we call it Sicilian reasoning.

Here's how we can break the logical process tree down.

The humans think the most obvious choice for the wolves is Tass
The wolves think that the humans think the most obvious choice for the wolves is Tass

therefore, the wolves do not choose Tass.

------

On a two-level logic chain:

The humans think that the wolves think that the humans think the most obvious choice for the wolves is Tass

Therefore the wolves move down a tier to make their selection.

-----

Now we must ask, do the wolves believe that the humans would follow this reasoning this far? If so:

The wolves think that the humans think that the wolves would not choose Tass, rather they would choose a next tier player.

Therefore the wolves can either choose Tass or choose a below-next tier player.

------

The question is, did the wolves think all the way to the 3rd branch of the logic chain or the second? I would wager to say they followed to the second. Following a sicilian chain to the 3rd branch is not common, I see these same conjectures all the time in poker as a 'what does my opponent think that I think he has' type of argument, and I must rarely think my decision all the way out to the 3rd branch.

Therefore, I will wager to say that the wolves either chose Tasselfoot or a next-tier player as their Master Wolf.

The logical pool of players for Master Wolf is: Tasselfoot, blah, Kefit, chardish, alain, and aperson. This pool was created by Jursey and Tasselfoot.

Therefore, seeing any of these players is dangerous as a return of human is not definitive.

Matthew4444 · 05-7-2005, 12:48 PM

I would like to propose a specific plan of action for the seering in this game.

First off, we have established that the mark is a powerful player and is also probably the MW, or at least the MW is a powerful player. Since choosing a weaker player would be much more of a sacrifice just to confuse us, this possibility has been ruled out.

As for the actual plan, it is simply that the Seer only seers the lesser players, and lets Tass be the messenger, just in case. It is likely that there may be at least one wolf among the lesser players, so at least we might get rid of a lesser wolf quickly. It also means that in order to hurt the alliance, the wolves will have to shoot at the lesser players, wasting a kill on a better player. If we allow mid- to high-level players to get seered, then the wolves just need to take them out to both hurt the human's brain power and the alliance.

**Tasselfoot** · 05-7-2005, 01:12 PM

Matt.... not only was that exact strategy mentioned already... its common sense.

Thanks for keeping track with the thread.

And, to further ap... I think it is safe to say that I am NOT in the pool for MW. Making it Blah, Kefit, Alain, Aperson, Chardish.... maybe Guido for the same reasoning that I picked him to be the wolf in TWG9 Manhunt.

flypie743 · 05-7-2005, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tasselfoot

Still waiting to speak to Mead, Spheroid, and Flypie. After I talk with them I'll be able to figure some things out.

Feel free to AIM me when I am on.

**aperson** · 05-7-2005, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tasselfoot

Matt.... not only was that exact strategy mentioned already... its common sense.

Thanks for keeping track with the thread.

And, to further ap... I think it is safe to say that I am NOT in the pool for MW. Making it Blah, Kefit, Alain, Aperson, Chardish.... maybe Guido for the same reasoning that I picked him to be the wolf in TWG9 Manhunt.

Of course, but I do not want to rule you out because of your intelligence. There is still the possibility that you have pawned a noobish vigilante in your hands and you are digging everyone's grave.

Tps222 · 05-7-2005, 01:27 PM

That would be way too risky for Tass. Even if somehow he did find the vigilante, and tried to convince him, there is the possibilty that the Vigi could get nervous and just use his power on Tass. No way would Tass risk that, especially if the vigi was a newb. That would prove my scenario even more likely.

I highly doubt Tass being anything other then vigilante, which is the perfect role for him, because if he comes in contact with the seer, and seer's a wolf, and doesn't even have to try and convince us to lynch him, he can just do it himself. This puts us in a great situation to get at least 1 wolf by day 3.

**lightdarkness** · 05-7-2005, 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aperson

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tasselfoot

Matt.... not only was that exact strategy mentioned already... its common sense.

Thanks for keeping track with the thread.

And, to further ap... I think it is safe to say that I am NOT in the pool for MW. Making it Blah, Kefit, Alain, Aperson, Chardish.... maybe Guido for the same reasoning that I picked him to be the wolf in TWG9 Manhunt.

Of course, but I do not want to rule you out because of your intelligence. There is still the possibility that you have pawned a noobish vigilante in your hands and you are digging everyone's grave.

IF YOU ARE THE VIGILANTE, AND NOT TASS, STATE YOU ARE THE VIGILANTE AND THAT YOU ARE KILLING TASS

Now you happy AP?

mead1 · 05-7-2005, 02:46 PM

@ Tass, I am at a friends LAN Halo2 party currently. I will probably be back in a few hours, sorry for being away from the game for such a stretch. Feel free to IM me when you next see me on.

**alainbryden** · 05-7-2005, 06:04 PM

I didn't think of it before, but just because everyone is being such an ass about it, assume that Tass talks to the vigilante, he could be human or wolf, and convinces the vigilante to keep quiet so that he could pretend to be the vigilante. He would tell the vigilante that this is for his protection, not to be revealed, and Tass uses this strategy to build the alliance around this false information. This only works for a 'power player' because only they are valuable enough to be consistently guarded as Tass no doubt will. This would be the perfect strategy. Of course, this only works assuming Tass had the luck to have a stupid enough vigilante confide in him without any real evidence. Unlikely at this stage. I imply nothing by this, just an interesting strategic observation. Carry on.

JurseyRider734 · 05-7-2005, 06:24 PM

Except the vigilante would be RETARDED to trust Tass on the first day of Day 1.

Spheroid · 05-7-2005, 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tasselfoot

Still waiting to speak to Mead, Spheroid, and Flypie. After I talk with them I'll be able to figure some things out.

I guess I should apologize for not being online for the past two days. I was on a small trip where I didn't have access to a computer. Anyway, I've only really skimmed the tread so far. Tommorow, I'll have time to read through it.

**alainbryden** · 05-7-2005, 10:01 PM

Well that's all swell, but itsn't the deadline coming up soon? We need to begin seriously considering the best lynching target.

**lightdarkness** · 05-7-2005, 10:03 PM

Well... here is my thoughts.

One of the people offereing all the senarios is a wolf. Just saying that off of a hunch. I think it's too early to try and lynch one of them, so we have to look towards others.

Honestly, who is acting wolfy? I haven't seen anyone. This is one tricky TWG, usually we've had AT LEAST one vote by now (Usually my random one)

Hopefully we can make stuff happen tomorrow.

**Tasselfoot** · 05-8-2005, 06:09 AM

Voting ends at 1am tonight..... and, SOMEONE is going to get a phantom.

Frankly, I'm going to be god damn furious if a single one of you votes yourself... it will make it VERY easy for the wolves to place 1-2 extra votes on you and get you killed. They'll have their choice of kill.

I mentioned in chat that Spheroid hadn't been around and it was pissing me off. Who knows how active he'll be for the rest of the game, or how many phantoms he'll rack up. So, would it be THAT terrible to off him now, save us all the hassle later? I'm aware its a damn bad strategy, but the leads I've been looking into haven't yet had time to develop.

Apart from that, the only other option would be to lynch someone like Alain or ap based on the probability that they were picked as the 4th wolf.

I'm heading out for brunch with my mother soon.... will be back in a few hours.

nforcer06164 · 05-8-2005, 06:38 AM

Well, my first suspicions regarding marking picks were Tass, the ap. Of course, Tass has pretty much proven his humanity. I'm not going to lie and say that I'm not keeping an eye on ap, but it's really nothing more than a gut feeling. I'd HATE to go on just that, but at this point, that's what it looks like.

Does Kefit even know he's playing right now? I thought of random voting from the list of players that have not posted, but, well, Kefit's the only one left. He tends to be inactive, so I'm not going to place a vote on him right now, but I might if he doesn't show up soon.

Also, on a side note... very recently, a personal matter of a severe and very sensitive nature has come up for me. I'm not going to try to let it affect my game, but if I become a bit inactive, don't attribute it to wolfiness. If the situation calls for my attention, I'll have to push this aside. Neo can vouch for me on this. I'd rather not discuss it right now, either. I'm only posting this to let you know what's going on in case I seem to disappear for a few (real life) days.

**Neonatrias** · 05-8-2005, 07:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nforcer06164

Also, on a side note... very recently, a personal matter of a severe and very sensitive nature has come up for me. I'm not going to try to let it affect my game, but if I become a bit inactive, don't attribute it to wolfiness. If the situation calls for my attention, I'll have to push this aside. Neo can vouch for me on this. I'd rather not discuss it right now, either. I'm only posting this to let you know what's going on in case I seem to disappear for a few (real life) days.

Agreed. The situation is similar for me, though not in quite such severity.

Anyway, I'm going to be gone most of the day. I'll be back later tonight.

**alainbryden** · 05-8-2005, 07:57 AM

Tass, I don't like your idea of lynching people just because if they 'were' wolves, they would pose a risk. This is the exact type of thinking you have critisized in past games when your humanity was uncertain. Same goes with your whim decision that Spheroid would be a good target.

Tass can vote whoever he wants everyone, remember, but his idea of who would be a good lynching target is no better than anyone elses. [/bandwagon prevention]

That aside, I agree that we should try to decide as a group on one person instead of having 1 or 2 votes on everyone. A chat meeting would be best for this. Hopefully this can be aranged for sometime around 6 or so, and we can make a group decision.

mead1 · 05-8-2005, 08:01 AM

Excellent idea alain. 6 sounds good to me.

05-7-2005, 12:26 PM	#42
Tasselfoot Retired BOSS Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Widget Heaven Age: 40 Posts: 25,184	Still waiting to speak to Mead, Spheroid, and Flypie. After I talk with them I'll be able to figure some things out. __________________ RIP

05-7-2005, 12:45 PM	#43
aperson FFR Hall of Fame Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Houston Posts: 3,428	Okay guys, this 'which cup has the poison' debate has some merit, and please, can we call it Sicilian reasoning. Here's how we can break the logical process tree down. The humans think the most obvious choice for the wolves is Tass The wolves think that the humans think the most obvious choice for the wolves is Tass therefore, the wolves do not choose Tass. ------ On a two-level logic chain: The humans think that the wolves think that the humans think the most obvious choice for the wolves is Tass Therefore the wolves move down a tier to make their selection. ----- Now we must ask, do the wolves believe that the humans would follow this reasoning this far? If so: The wolves think that the humans think that the wolves would not choose Tass, rather they would choose a next tier player. Therefore the wolves can either choose Tass or choose a below-next tier player. ------ The question is, did the wolves think all the way to the 3rd branch of the logic chain or the second? I would wager to say they followed to the second. Following a sicilian chain to the 3rd branch is not common, I see these same conjectures all the time in poker as a 'what does my opponent think that I think he has' type of argument, and I must rarely think my decision all the way out to the 3rd branch. Therefore, I will wager to say that the wolves either chose Tasselfoot or a next-tier player as their Master Wolf. The logical pool of players for Master Wolf is: Tasselfoot, blah, Kefit, chardish, alain, and aperson. This pool was created by Jursey and Tasselfoot. Therefore, seeing any of these players is dangerous as a return of human is not definitive. __________________

05-7-2005, 12:48 PM	#44
Matthew4444 FFR Player Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Vancouver Island Posts: 139	I would like to propose a specific plan of action for the seering in this game. First off, we have established that the mark is a powerful player and is also probably the MW, or at least the MW is a powerful player. Since choosing a weaker player would be much more of a sacrifice just to confuse us, this possibility has been ruled out. As for the actual plan, it is simply that the Seer only seers the lesser players, and lets Tass be the messenger, just in case. It is likely that there may be at least one wolf among the lesser players, so at least we might get rid of a lesser wolf quickly. It also means that in order to hurt the alliance, the wolves will have to shoot at the lesser players, wasting a kill on a better player. If we allow mid- to high-level players to get seered, then the wolves just need to take them out to both hurt the human's brain power and the alliance. __________________ postcount += 1 I am also known as TheDarkNerd, if that makes any difference.

05-7-2005, 01:12 PM	#45
Tasselfoot Retired BOSS Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Widget Heaven Age: 40 Posts: 25,184	Matt.... not only was that exact strategy mentioned already... its common sense. Thanks for keeping track with the thread. And, to further ap... I think it is safe to say that I am NOT in the pool for MW. Making it Blah, Kefit, Alain, Aperson, Chardish.... maybe Guido for the same reasoning that I picked him to be the wolf in TWG9 Manhunt. __________________ RIP

05-7-2005, 06:04 PM	#51
alainbryden Seen your member Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: noitacoL Posts: 2,873	I didn't think of it before, but just because everyone is being such an ass about it, assume that Tass talks to the vigilante, he could be human or wolf, and convinces the vigilante to keep quiet so that he could pretend to be the vigilante. He would tell the vigilante that this is for his protection, not to be revealed, and Tass uses this strategy to build the alliance around this false information. This only works for a 'power player' because only they are valuable enough to be consistently guarded as Tass no doubt will. This would be the perfect strategy. Of course, this only works assuming Tass had the luck to have a stupid enough vigilante confide in him without any real evidence. Unlikely at this stage. I imply nothing by this, just an interesting strategic observation. Carry on. __________________ ~NEIGH

05-7-2005, 01:27 PM	#48
Tps222 FFR Player Join Date: Nov 2004 Age: 33 Posts: 6,167	That would be way too risky for Tass. Even if somehow he did find the vigilante, and tried to convince him, there is the possibilty that the Vigi could get nervous and just use his power on Tass. No way would Tass risk that, especially if the vigi was a newb. That would prove my scenario even more likely. I highly doubt Tass being anything other then vigilante, which is the perfect role for him, because if he comes in contact with the seer, and seer's a wolf, and doesn't even have to try and convince us to lynch him, he can just do it himself. This puts us in a great situation to get at least 1 wolf by day 3.

05-7-2005, 02:46 PM	#50
mead1 Cerebellumberjack Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: On a boat Age: 33 Posts: 3,960	@ Tass, I am at a friends LAN Halo2 party currently. I will probably be back in a few hours, sorry for being away from the game for such a stretch. Feel free to IM me when you next see me on.

05-7-2005, 10:01 PM	#54
alainbryden Seen your member Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: noitacoL Posts: 2,873	Well that's all swell, but itsn't the deadline coming up soon? We need to begin seriously considering the best lynching target. __________________ ~NEIGH

05-7-2005, 10:03 PM	#55
lightdarkness Summer!! Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: New York Age: 35 Posts: 11,308	Well... here is my thoughts. One of the people offereing all the senarios is a wolf. Just saying that off of a hunch. I think it's too early to try and lynch one of them, so we have to look towards others. Honestly, who is acting wolfy? I haven't seen anyone. This is one tricky TWG, usually we've had AT LEAST one vote by now (Usually my random one) Hopefully we can make stuff happen tomorrow. __________________

05-8-2005, 06:09 AM	#56
Tasselfoot Retired BOSS Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Widget Heaven Age: 40 Posts: 25,184	Voting ends at 1am tonight..... and, SOMEONE is going to get a phantom. Frankly, I'm going to be god damn furious if a single one of you votes yourself... it will make it VERY easy for the wolves to place 1-2 extra votes on you and get you killed. They'll have their choice of kill. I mentioned in chat that Spheroid hadn't been around and it was pissing me off. Who knows how active he'll be for the rest of the game, or how many phantoms he'll rack up. So, would it be THAT terrible to off him now, save us all the hassle later? I'm aware its a damn bad strategy, but the leads I've been looking into haven't yet had time to develop. Apart from that, the only other option would be to lynch someone like Alain or ap based on the probability that they were picked as the 4th wolf. I'm heading out for brunch with my mother soon.... will be back in a few hours. __________________ RIP

05-8-2005, 07:57 AM	#59
alainbryden Seen your member Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: noitacoL Posts: 2,873	Tass, I don't like your idea of lynching people just because if they 'were' wolves, they would pose a risk. This is the exact type of thinking you have critisized in past games when your humanity was uncertain. Same goes with your whim decision that Spheroid would be a good target. Tass can vote whoever he wants everyone, remember, but his idea of who would be a good lynching target is no better than anyone elses. [/bandwagon prevention] That aside, I agree that we should try to decide as a group on one person instead of having 1 or 2 votes on everyone. A chat meeting would be best for this. Hopefully this can be aranged for sometime around 6 or so, and we can make a group decision. __________________ ~NEIGH

05-8-2005, 08:01 AM	#60
mead1 Cerebellumberjack Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: On a boat Age: 33 Posts: 3,960	Excellent idea alain. 6 sounds good to me.

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