TWG XV - #twgxv (Humans Win. Huzzah.)

[flypie743]

Just so you guys know I am leaving for a party in a few minutes and then to a dance then spending the night at a friend's house. I will be back on Saturday afternoon.

[nforcer06164]

I have to say, I completely agreed and was going to post Chardish's theory as well, Tass.

The possibility of Tass being marked, likely without a doubt, ran across my mind. But, as I thought about and what was already mentioned, I will reiterate: the wolves may have expected us to think just that, and lynch Tass. That way, a powerful human ally is killed off and the wolves are safe. I am definitely learning in the latter direction on this subject, because I'm sure the wolves thought this out even more than I did when selecting a mark.

What really pisses me off right off the bat in this game is that we didn't get to see a Night 1 kill, or even an attempt at one. This will make our lynching for Day 1 the most random and ineffective yet.

[whorlichan]

Well, it seems like everyone (including me) agrees with Chardish and Tass (since they basically said the same thing).

I am still leaning slightly more towards the power players as the ones to check out, since with so many of them in the game, it's highly likely that at least one of them is A wolf, if not the MASTER wolf.

[Kilgamayan]

Notice/Reminder

The final Community Megapack selection process takes place in #a0.com tomorrow at 2 PM EST. I don't know how long it will run, but it will require my full attention, so I'll be unable to pay any reasonable amount of attention to this while it's going on.

Hopefully it won't take more than a couple hours.

[Tasselfoot]

After some thought, I have decided to post this....


I am the Vigilante.


I'd like to work with the seer, psychic, guardian to have a solid core of 4, regardless of the people who are brought in as "seered". Now, clearly, the first thought is that either I am in fact the Vigilante... or I am a wolf. The thing I realized, and the reason that I am posting this... is that IF I were a wolf, the real vigilante would kill me, with no possible repercussions and would be a 100% confirmed human for the other blues to flock to. That makes absolutely 0 sense for a wolf to do.... therefore, I have to be the vigilante.

I leave it to all of you to decide if there is any loophole in my logic, because I can't think of it. Also, hopefully this will help protect me from wolfings, as the guardian has a damn good reason (better than normal) to keep me alive.

Come to me my blue friends.

[Tasselfoot]

Also, in case someone is still skeptical.....

lightdarkness42: damn
lightdarkness42: that is some fine logic


Ares113: So.
Ares113: If you don't vigilante today, what's going to keep the wolves from wolfing you?
TasselFoot: guardian.
TasselFoot: or threat of guardian
TasselFoot: guardian gets TWO people to guard tonight
Ares113: Yes, of course.
TasselFoot: no reason i won't be one of them.


Phonem Recursive: very interesting
Phonem Recursive: That's amazing logic
TasselFoot: thank you.
Phonem Recursive: You're right, if you are not the vigilante you will be killed


I have quotes from other people, but I don't want to reveal to anyone who may or may not be a blue. You get the idea, multiple good players agree with my logic and have been unable to see a flaw in it.

Edit is me adding in the aperson quote. Didn't want to triple post.

[talisman]

Ok then, I join the chorus about chardish's post being right on, etc etc, and tass' revealment of his role is pretty damn slick, and really helps the seer early on since automatically three other people are eliminated as potential wolves, which will be excellent for alliance building/wolf finding.

Really nothing else to add at this point, except that I disagree with this reasoning:

Originally Posted by chardish

(Aside: also, for this reason, I'd guess that blah isn't the mark. Pretty much everyone knows that he failed miserably at being a wolf last time, and I don't think that they'd let him have another shot at it.)

I mean, the reason that blah failed at being a wolf was because A) tass was guarded and therefore made an early alliance B) tass was suspicious of him and C) if blah hadn't been seered night one, he sure as hell would be night two. I think he kind of realized he was in a hopeless position and gave up, not that he lacks the skill to be a wolf. He's still a possible mark in my mind.

[Tasselfoot]

Talisman... you definately aren't wrong. also, D) He's been working night and day on a project for a class of his... still working on it acutally. Its been distracting him.

BUT... the fact remains... he's been a wolf 1 time in 12 games, and he botched it pretty badly. Whether it was his fault or not, we won't discuss. All that matters is that he did, and everyone knows it. It looks bad all around, thereby making him a less likely choice.

I said something similar in chat though... something like "Blah is my dark horse choice for MW"... we'll see.

[lightdarkness]

Here was my logic about Tass.

Someone mentioned "Well.. what if the real vigilante isn't on, and Tass used that to get a few special roles before being killed"

Here is my response: It's Tass for christ sake, would he honestly go on a suicide mission on day 1? He loves pips more than whorli, of course he wouldnt'

[alainbryden]

It's flawless. It's obvious.

What a game where now it is the less skilled players that will be forced to run the show with the exception of Tass.
I will leave you to your musings to find how I came to that conclusion. Everything else has been said.

[talisman]

I just remembered something in the shower, and I'm going to post it real quick because it potentially adds a little more to talk about.

We all are talking about the wolves' likely marks while forgetting that the wolves had to pick FIVE marks, as per Kilga's rules in order to insure that a normal human was chosen. Some interesting scenarios arise from this:

A) all the original wolves are newer, less experience players: Clearly, they would choose five of the strongeset players as their potentials and transfer master wolf status to the one that made it through.

B) all the original wolves are experienced, strong players: Adding another strong player would probably be a bad call, since then four likely seerables are all wolves. Average players would most likely be on the list of five.

C) (most likely) the original wolves are a mix of experienced, average, or inexperienced players: It seems to me that in this situation that the number of strong original wolves would be the determining factor. If there is only one, then adding another would be beneficial. If there are two, then adding another might hurt because of the seer.

D) all the original wolves are just average players: same as A, basically.

Some food for thought. Also most of my reasoning is based on the seer choosing the stronger players, which may not happen here, based on the general opinions from the last couple pages about what kind of player is likely to be chosen as a master wolf.

[lightdarkness]

The wolves didn't pick 5, they got their one pick, then special roles were given out.

[Tasselfoot]

Alain:
I could run a TWG with monkeys.... hmm.... new game idea, anyone?


Talisman/LD:
Originally Kilga was going to have the wolves pick 5 potential people to be their 4th wolf, incase the person they picked was blue. Then I posted that the wolves should pick their 4th BEFORE choosing blues, so they could get the 1 that they wanted... he agreed, and that is how the game went.

So, talisman was just under the original rules, as opposed to the more logical way in which Kilga decided to run it, which was how I suggested it be done.


Interestingly enough... the wolves would clearly know that this is NOT how it actually went down, so... although talisman could be a wolf who is trying to fool us, it would appear to be pretty clear that he is human.

[mead1]

I am very happy the human alliance can nowbe formed. It is much to our advantage. Though since I am green, this means I will again be on the outside while knowing absolutely nothing. Bleh.

[nforcer06164]

One other thing I thought of, and this kind of builds on some of the possibilities talisman brought up:

I'm sure that we have at least one experienced player in the mix. Of course, they're going to think out possibilities advantageous to the wolf win, as we humans are too. But, if they thought out possibilities as much as we did, they would see ahead that we'd be more trusting of average players.

Think about it. Of course the wolves want to have powerful players on their side, but this is a game where they have a choice: they can actually pick another player as a wolf and make him the master. Of course, in this situation, the instinct is to go for the most powerful player available and make him a master, so in seering him, he can get into a human alliance. Of course, we're not dumb enough for that, but the wolves know that, too. So, my idea is that they most likely went for an average player that we believe we can trust, and make them the master wolf so they can slip into an alliance and feed back info to their wolf buddies. It doesn't matter how skilled that average player is with keeping their identity secret. The experienced player could be guiding them the whole way. I think with the situations that can form in this game, that is the most probable.

So, whoever the seer is, just remember... don't trust anyone, not even the most inexperienced player, and never reveal your identity to them. If you think you can really trust someone after a seering, work through Tass. NEVER go direct.

[talisman]

Oops. I just read page one of the vote for host thread, not thinking the rules would change on page two. My bad, guys.

I guess my scenarios still have some merit though, although now you just have to think of the different cases of original wolves as only picking one. And we do know now (for sure) that tass wasn't marked.

[Tasselfoot]

I still haven't spoken to a few people.... I sent PMs to all of you, so please check your PMs and/or get on AIM.

[JurseyRider734]

Okay, I think we have scenarios. Sum up of basically what everyone said:

They most likely marked an experienced/very smart player.

Okay...got that down. So who are we looking at? Tass(who has been nullified because he's the vigilante), blah, Kefit, chardish, alain.

Okay, cool. Most likely one of those 4 that are the Master Wolf.

Now that we have that down, we need to talk more about what people are saying instead of what we THINK the wolves are going to do, or what they did. If these wolves are smart, they could do exactly what we said, or the exact opposite. Obviously if there's a wolf amongst the people who have been posting(likely), they probably said the exact opposite thing of what they REALLY did to throw everyone off.

I think there needs to be more conversing in the TWG chat so that we are able to see what's going on with everyone. Right now I'm suspicious of alain, and a few know why. Another I have a feeling about, and only a feeling about, is aperson. In the last game I played with him he was throwing out ideas left and right and I hardly see him participating this game. He hasn't said anything about those "linguistic analyses" so there could be a possibility he's not talking about it this game to stay under the radar. Anyone else have ideas or find anything sketchy while talking to someone?

[Tasselfoot]

Don't forget aperson Jurs.... although he hasn't won a game and only played in two... his skills are well respected, and BECAUSE he hasn't played much, he flies under the radar more. So, don't foget about him. He should be in that list too.

[JurseyRider734]

True, I was going to add him. I don't know why I didn't, thats why I put "experienced/very smart" players, keeping aperson in mind under the "very smart" list. But yeah, thats why I'm suspicious of him, if you read.