TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

[Celirra]

Originally Posted by jessiebessie

did I miss something? do people not believe your role or do they just think it's weird?

I guess my role is easy to be spun into a wolfy one, that or people are dumdums

[Celirra]

I kinda dont like the arguments made for xel
Being antitown doesnt mean you're not a wolf either

[Celirra]

ps I will try be around for eod but if I fall asleep its cause I was too tired to make it to work tomorrow with only a few hrs sleep

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by jessiebessie

like that charu shared the store info, but am suspicious that if he’s a wolf, he could have just done so to build town credibility in a way that was relatively low-risk. could be pure though. idk.

Mindmeld.

Especially ironic since this was his main point against the box when he brought up multiple nightkills

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by Celirra

I kinda dont like the arguments made for xel
Being antitown doesnt mean you're not a wolf either

Word spam.

So your pretty much saying xel is a coinflip?

Who is.your top pick to die today?

[Xelicopter]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

Word spam.

So your pretty much saying xel is a coinflip?

Who is.your top pick to die today?

there is no chance that to the general rest of you

I should 100% be a 50 / 50

if you attempt to convince yourself otherwise, you're delusional at best

[Celirra]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

Word spam.

So your pretty much saying xel is a coinflip?

Who is.your top pick to die today?

i think blind

[Celirra]

ps. I'm not saying xel is a coinflip, that's you putting words in my mouth like a butt
I'm saying that while there's a difference between antitown and wolf behaviour, antitown behaviour is not intrinsically a reason to write someone off as not being a wolf contrary to what seems to be expressed here so far

[Xiz]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

Mindmeld.

UGH

[Charu]

Originally Posted by Xelicopter

there is no chance that to the general rest of you

I should 100% be a 50 / 50

if you attempt to convince yourself otherwise, you're delusional at best

I think letting the thread know you're a 50/50 is not a good way to sway opinions.

Could be just me though.

[Charu]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

Mindmeld.

Especially ironic since this was his main point against the box when he brought up multiple nightkills

Wha...

My beef with round extends pass that, it was just something to add on to the pile of other things I found lacking and dodgy.

But with the knowledge I have now, there's to consider this:

Did roundbox know about multiple night kills due to one of their wolf pals having this ability (since there is an item that's unaccounted for in this list)? A scenario in my head can easily play one of the wolves brainstorming on Spruce specifically since if you just look up that specific character... they start with a member card which gave them access to the shop pregame.

http://fireemblem.wikia.com/wiki/Rennac

Specifically look at the starting item for them. Look familiar to the flip?

...

HOWEVER

I think I much believe the world that TWGma did it since he's the person that would naturally look for this with his Fire Emblem knowledge. If TWGma won that event during jeopardy like I think he did, then he no doubt used it thinking spruce was a wolf... I think. It's the only one I can think of anyways that doesn't involve a 3rd wolf kill that I don't believe in.

[FreezinIce]

I think I'm gonna take a step back and try to reset since I spent all today tunneling charu and did almost nothing of note.

Not saying that I'm reneging on my scumread but I acknowledge

A) the possibility of a icarus situation where I'm being blinded to other possible worlds and risk accomplishing nothing and

B) That charu can't be resolved concretely today without catching at least another wolf. And it was probably too soon to aim that high considering the general reaction. I got.

So I make a tactical withdrawal and I will try to stay receptive to new information.

[FreezinIce]

I will say that in general none of the vocal people today feel like wolves.

[FreezinIce]

I mean...

Tonewise, if I largely ignore wider implications I think from towniest to scummiest it goes:

1. Charu / yoshl
2. Xiz / roundbox
3. cel
4. Jessica
5. Blind/xel

[FreezinIce]

So how do I parse this.

Is it impossible to take a good stab from tone alone? Do I really need the entire body of work of a player to make a decent judgement? This game will probably decide that for me once and for all and shape my meta in future games.

[Celirra]

I'll get bad ranking lists for 600, sunfan

[FreezinIce]

Maybe were at the equalibirium point where wolf fatigue sets in and towniness directly correlates to post volume with at least 2 of the remaining 3 wolves

[Daikyi]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

I will say that in general none of the vocal people today feel like wolves.

i mean, it's definitely beneficial for wolves to sit back, assuming there's just town yelling in thread.

[Celirra]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

Maybe were at the equalibirium point where wolf fatigue sets in and towniness directly correlates to post volume with at least 2 of the remaining 3 wolves

so who are these 2 that you're implicating here? I don't think I've noticed any distinct posting quantity differences for anyone in the game relative to others in the game

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

Maybe were at the equalibirium point where wolf fatigue sets in and towniness directly correlates to post volume with at least 2 of the remaining 3 wolves

In other words, the chances of a majority of the wolves being active posters today that have natural interactions with each other are very unlikely.

If I had to bet money, I'd subscribe to the 2 inactive 1 "master" wolf paradigm. So we should be looking at inactive today for the lynch. If people share this train of thought that is.