TWG CVII: Where da Wolves at? (C9++ setup)

[emerald000]

And yes, killing is good. No objection on that point. Pushing for killing a specific person 30 hours before the deadline seems ambitious.

[dAnceguy117]

Originally Posted by emerald000

I'd rather kill someone like dAnce for bandwagonning and inciting other people to do so for no reason.

inciting is your interpretation; I only asked a question to those who were voting meaculpa.

Originally Posted by cedolad

I was going to give you allowance of a shallow vague post merely because I thought you were using your phone, but if that's not the case then you better be more insightful or I'm going to pin you as a wolf and then OFF WITH YOUR HEAD MWUAHAHA.

I will give as much insight as I see fit whenever I see fit

[dAnceguy117]

Originally Posted by emerald000

And yes, killing is good. No objection on that point. Pushing for killing a specific person 30 hours before the deadline seems ambitious.

it's possible to make somewhat of a push and then change votes later. this game can't be played without seeing reactions. I want to know who is willing to kill whom.

I'll take "ambitious" though

[James May]

Originally Posted by YoshL

oh and my vote is still on sunfan. reading his analysis, it's almost as barebones as you can really get, analysis on me is like "what j-rodd said", even though j-rodd never actually gave reasoning behind his read.

"James is being James, same for Cedo" gives pretty much no insight to anything, and same with his Velo/sora read. Mea read is a gut read (i'm getting somewhat of the same vibe admittedly) but stating that "its something" isn't really much at all. Maybe a way to make it look like you are saying something without actually saying that.

That's what I'm thinking with him. I understand that its day 1 but still, a coherent analysis would work if you're eerily suspicious about someone. As for his point in the "James is being James" stuff, its pure meta. Velocity, Soramimi, and MeaCulpa I'm not sure on since they're new but as the game goes on we'll see how it goes. To be honest, that post is pretty much minimal on his part, just scraping by the heap of posts that we're all seeing (which admittedly, 85% of it is white noise if you look at it.)

@emerald:

I don't remember playing with the guy. By that I mean that there's nothing that came out to me as wolfy. Or anybody else for that matter.

that's what I'm getting with meaculpa, can't really rattle the guy for being new at the game hehe.

@cedolady:

Well since we don't have a night kill to base opinions on, it's in our best interest to lynch for a cardflip.

Yeah, I just found it odd that dance is willing to lynch meaculpa already despite that there's really barely anything that says "Hey guys I'm a wolf, kill me pl0x."

While I do say that I find it odd, that doesn't mean that I am suspicious of dance in anyway since I figured that it could be a gutread coming from him just like how I interpreted sunfan's post.

[Bynary Fission]

Originally Posted by emerald000

Pretty much my thoughts too. I hate when games start on a day phase. It's also pretty stupid flavourwise to kill someone before anybody has died. It's like the humans are actually the murderers.

After that note, I agree that we have to kill someone. It's annoying that we have to get a majority vote for a random choice though.

On the MeaCulpa front, I don't see anything out of the ordinary from him. I'd rather kill someone like dAnce for bandwagonning and inciting other people to do so for no reason.

Why do you feel we "need" to kill somebody? I understand the strategic importance of the cardflip but as the others have stated we have *nothing* to go off of - hell, MeaCulpa got a vote from sunfan just because somebody thought he "didn't seem right". At this point in the game a person sees what they want to see - do we lynch the more silent players because it seems suspicious that they aren't posting enough? Do we lynch the players who vote for somebody because they want to start a bandwagon? See this quote below:

Originally Posted by psychoangel691

I read through the thread again a lot of it was us messing around. I feel like there's very little to go off and don't find mea wolfy. I'd say sunfan looks wolfy again but that also seems to be the way he plays in general. I'd like to see more discussion before pushing hard on anyone.

"wolfy" seems like an excessively vague term. What defines "wolfy" behavior? Maybe it's just because I'm a naturally cautious player, but it kinda feels like everybody is seeing what they want to see right now.

On that note, changing my vote to soramimi for now.

[psychoangel691]

Originally Posted by Bynary Fission

"wolfy" seems like an excessively vague term. What defines "wolfy" behavior? Maybe it's just because I'm a naturally cautious player, but it kinda feels like everybody is seeing what they want to see right now.

I played with him as a wolf last game, he's showing some of the same traits as last game. Doesn't necessarily mean anything, which is why I said it could just be the way he plays in general. This is also why I'm not hopping on voting anyone right now because there's no good information.

[Bynary Fission]

Whoops, I meant to say:

hell, MeaCulpa got a vote from sunfan just because he thought he "didn't seem right".

[emerald000]

Originally Posted by Bynary Fission

Why do you feel we "need" to kill somebody? I understand the strategic importance of the cardflip but as the others have stated we have *nothing* to go off of - hell, MeaCulpa got a vote from sunfan just because somebody thought he "didn't seem right". At this point in the game a person sees what they want to see - do we lynch the more silent players because it seems suspicious that they aren't posting enough? Do we lynch the players who vote for somebody because they want to start a bandwagon? See this quote below:

We need to kill somebody because if we don't the wolves will win. Lynching is the humans' way to win.

[Bynary Fission]

Originally Posted by psychoangel691

I played with him as a wolf last game, he's showing some of the same traits as last game. Doesn't necessarily mean anything, which is why I said it could just be the way he plays in general. This is also why I'm not hopping on voting anyone right now because there's no good information.

Agreed. I've played enough games to know that "wolfy" behavior is indicative of absolutely nothing, in particular when you take into account the natural variation in people's personalities, responses and behaviors. I've seen just as many innocent players lynched for "wolfish" behavior as guilty ones, so it's not a wise idea to somebody to push for a lynch because they think somebody acts "wolfish".

[Bynary Fission]

Originally Posted by emerald000

We need to kill somebody because if we don't the wolves will win. Lynching is the humans' way to win.

And if we lynch an innocent person over a vague hunch? While we aren't at the later phases of the game yet I have witnessed whole games lost because a human got lynched for no justifiable reason, and given the distribution of roles the odds of us lynching a human are much greater than the odds of lynching a wolf at this point in the game.

[emerald000]

Originally Posted by Bynary Fission

And if we lynch an innocent person over a vague hunch? While we aren't at the later phases of the game yet I have witnessed whole games lost because a human got lynched for no justifiable reason, and given the distribution of roles the odds of us lynching a human are much greater than the odds of lynching a wolf at this point in the game.

Yes, but we have 0% to kill a wolf if we don't do kill anybody. ~20% is better than 0%.

[cedolad]

Originally Posted by Bynary Fission

And if we lynch an innocent person over a vague hunch? While we aren't at the later phases of the game yet I have witnessed whole games lost because a human got lynched for no justifiable reason, and given the distribution of roles the odds of us lynching a human are much greater than the odds of lynching a wolf at this point in the game.

Honestly with the day start it is hard to say that we can lynch a wolf right now. The objective behind the unjustifiable lynch is to:

A) lessen the player pool so that the odds of finding a wolf next day is more manageable.

B) find the reactions from certain players on how we came about the lynch, or the no lynch depending on how the rest of the night goes
&
C) build a big enough voting pool that more comprehensible voting patterns are established.

I understand your caution, but it's too early in the game to not have someone dead right now. Think of it if it were a night start, someone would be dead right now. Traditionally speaking we would already be at a 12p pool. Given a day start, we humans get a chance to choose who would die and the data gathered from the lynch is more impressionable than of a wolf kill.

[Bynary Fission]

Originally Posted by emerald000

Yes, but we have 0% to kill a wolf if we don't do kill anybody. ~20% is better than 0%.

I can't say I disagree with you - but at the moment the logical deduction here stems from statements like "this guy feels wrong" - at the very least if we lynch somebody I'd prefer it be done with a bit more of a concrete set of statements. But since you lean towards a lynch, who do you think stands out the most as a possible wolf?

[thesunfan]

See, this is why votes this early, even with little reason or practically none at all can be GOOD. Look at the discussion that has generated from me just throwing a vote at Mea, which I wasn't even really remotely sure of. Biggest surprise from this was dAnce's reaction, he almost never wants to push a lynch through this early, and never on this little evidence. As for me not backing up my reasoning with too much insight (I forget who pointed that out, exactly, I think it was Yoshl?) you're tough out of luck. I don't share anything more than the bare minimum until Day Two.

[cedolad]

Originally Posted by cedolad

how the rest of the day goes

oops fixed

[thesunfan]

oh yeah, dAnce cuz I suck at remembering to bold

[Bynary Fission]

Originally Posted by cedolad

Honestly with the day start it is hard to say that we can lynch a wolf right now. The objective behind the unjustifiable lynch is to:

A) lessen the player pool so that the odds of finding a wolf next day is more manageable.

B) find the reactions from certain players on how we came about the lynch, or the no lynch depending on how the rest of the night goes
&
C) build a big enough voting pool that more comprehensible voting patterns are established.

I understand your caution, but it's too early in the game to not have someone dead right now. Think of it if it were a night start, someone would be dead right now. Traditionally speaking we would already be at a 12p pool. Given a day start, we humans get a chance to choose who would die and the data gathered from the lynch is more impressionable than of a wolf kill.

Hmm - I definitely agree with your second and third statements (though I understand the logic behind the first - it's a lot different than how I would approach it, but that doesn't mean I disagree). To repeat what I said to Emerald, who would you be leaning on right now for a lynch? I'm interested to hear what you have deduced so far.

[emerald000]

I'd really like to come out and say I deduced everything. Really. But I really don't have anything. There's this dAnce thing I pointed earlier. There's also thesunfan I find weird, but that's a gut feeling more than anything. Honestly, at this point, I'd be ready to vote for pretty much anybody, even though I'd rather not have to.

[cedolad]

Originally Posted by Bynary Fission

Hmm - I definitely agree with your second and third statements (though I understand the logic behind the first - it's a lot different than how I would approach it, but that doesn't mean I disagree). To repeat what I said to Emerald, who would you be leaning on right now for a lynch? I'm interested to hear what you have deduced so far.

Honestly I have to yet to come to a solid conclusion of who I want to lynch, but I suppose my lynch pool is something like:

danceguy (he seems odd and fishy, this isn't normally how he would play Day 1 as far as I can remember)

soramimi (random newb lynch, sorry if it happens)

Velocity (hasn't really given much input since the surge of activity)

Again these aren't concrete, but I'm okay with these three for the time being.

[cedolad]

Mr Charu if you're here can we get a vote count please?