06-4-2017, 02:37 AM | #221 |
the Haku
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Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread
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06-4-2017, 06:23 AM | #222 | ||||
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Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread
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If I die and flip town, and h&h is alive, lynch him.
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06-4-2017, 06:29 AM | #223 | |||
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Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread
what haku is saying about mass claiming sounds like a good way to solve the game
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06-4-2017, 09:23 AM | #224 |
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Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread
Hi I slept well.
Thoughts: Haku went full 1-on-1 vs XelNya when I was pressuring him (Haku) a lot for info. That being said he'd know we would potentially be at least 2 against him, which to me sounds risky (please help on this?) for a wolf. Andy no clue. Rapta I want to say would be a great liar if he is actually wolf. At first he said he was ok with lynching XelNya and agreed with my statement (I believe) to lynch Haku next day, then agreed that his vote was probably a mistake after XelNya's post; if he's unsure what to do as wolf, this is it. Also he just agreed on Haku's strat which, if they're both wolves and he doesn't quite know where he's going, makes a whole lot of sense. Rapta wolf & Haku wolf : Most plausible so far I think, Only if H&H is PR Rapta town & Haku wolf : Only if H&H is Wolf or the worst VT rofl Rapta wolf & haku town : Only if H&H is PR Rapta town & haku town : Only if H&H is Wolf Sanzath not agreeing with mass claim makes me think he's town by trying to make sure we don't get tricked into some wolfy strat. I'd like to hear more on that, it could push Haku towards wolf imo. H&H... idk. I think I'd wait for opinions from other people concerning mass claim and sanzath's logic, Haku is reaaally pushing that strat and I don't like that one bit. We Do have time. For now I can accept H&H being PR and trying to come up with some kind of weird strat lmao. WV, hmm, he was curious as to why Haku thought I was wolf, and Also went kind of against Haku's idea fearing it could fail. I think WV is town. So that'd leave: Haku & Rapta WOLF Andy & Sanz & WV & H&H & Myself TOWN Please debate |
06-4-2017, 09:35 AM | #225 |
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Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread
Haku, if we vote Rapta, you in ?
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06-4-2017, 10:43 AM | #226 |
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Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread
Alright why do you think hnh is town
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06-4-2017, 11:18 AM | #227 |
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Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread
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06-4-2017, 11:53 AM | #228 | |
Private Messages, please.
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Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread
Just caught up. Gonna charge my phone and do some stuff with the family before giving a good reply.
H&H seems like he's trying to claim PR, but doesn't really know how. Overall his play feels kinda wishy-washy and I'd be fine lynching him as of right now. I think the massclaim is probably not the best idea for town, because it gives the wolves the targets they want to find. It's usually best to make them work for those kills I would think. Haku is trending more town than before, but I wouldn't put deep wolfing past him. More stuff later.
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06-4-2017, 01:06 PM | #229 |
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Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread
I did some maths. Assuming a few things (lynching at random, town PRs targeting at random and wolves night killing at random), if we don't mass claim today, we only come out to about 11% chance of a PR getting conclusive info on a wolf tonight.
I'll side with Haku on this one, I think it's much more valuable to remove 2 towns from our lynch pool today. |
06-4-2017, 01:19 PM | #230 | |
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Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread
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06-4-2017, 01:35 PM | #231 |
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Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread
formatting, gimme a few minutes
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06-4-2017, 01:54 PM | #232 |
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Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread
Code:
Day 1 5 towns (2 of which are PR) vs 2 wolves = 5(2PR):2 lynching at random gives a 2/7 chance to lynch a wolf, 3/7 to lynch a VT and 2/7 to lynch a PR -Lynch Wolf: (2/7) Night 1 5(2PR):1 Wolf has a 2/5 chance to kill a PR, 3/5 chance to kill a VT -Nightkill VT: (3/5) 4(2PR):1 The PR who isn't blocked has a 1/5 chance to have targeted the right person -Nightkill PR: (2/5) 4(1PR):1 There's a 1/2 chance that the blocked PR was killed, and a 1/5 chance from there that the unblocked PR targeted the right person --> [3/5 * 1/5] + [2/5 * 1/2 * 1/5] = 3/25 + 1/25 = 4/25 (16%) to get conclusive info in this scenario -Lynch VT: (3/7) Night 1 4(2PR):2 Wolves have a 1/2 chance to kill a PR, 1/2 chance to kill VT -Nightkill VT: (1/2) 3(2PR):2 The PR who isn't blocked has a 1/5 chance to have targeted at the right person -Nightkill PR: (1/2) 3(1PR):2 There's a 1/2 chance that the blocked PR was killed, and a 1/5 chance from there that the unblocked PR targeted the right person --> [1/2 * 1/5] + [1/2 * 1/2 * 1/5] = 1/10 + 1/20 = 3/20 (15%) to get conclusive info in this scenario -Lynch PR: (2/7) Night 1 4(1PR):2 Wolves will 100% kill using their immune wolf, no conclusive info in this scenario --> [2/7 * 16%] + [3/7 * 16%] + [2/7 * 0%] = 11% chance to get conclusive info |
06-4-2017, 01:56 PM | #233 |
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Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread
I'm also not accounting for situations like the Watcher watching the victim, the Tracker targeting the victim and the Watcher-immune wolf being used for the kill.
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06-4-2017, 02:00 PM | #234 |
the Haku
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Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread
Note that mass claim also solve conflicts between players because it's forcing certain players to be 100% town and we can assume many things from that conclusion.
It's also clearing any situation where the wolf team claim themselves to be the Tracker/Watcher (this scenario could happen tomorrow if we mislynch because another mislynch will end the game). The advantage heavily outweight the 1/5 chance to target the right wolf who is doing the kill on a town player. The information of the visit can also soft clear players if nothing happened. (it's still risky if you somehow visited the immune wolf vs your PR role) |
06-4-2017, 02:05 PM | #235 | |
the Haku
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Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread
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We're not in a big game right now. Since the first phase ended way too early, I don't see how else you will magically find your 2 wolves without some sort of insurance. Note that both PRs claiming will also leave 1 PR alive tomorrow and the entire game will be centered around the other players who are not in that pool. |
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06-4-2017, 02:07 PM | #236 |
the Haku
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Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread
Another note; We still get 1 PR who will do a check knowing who the other PR is so that will also boost his own chance to actually target the right player.
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06-4-2017, 02:12 PM | #237 |
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Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread
As I said before, if both PRs are known, the Watcher-immune wolf can safely kill the Tracker, or the Tracker-immune wolf can safely kill the Watcher. Unless the wolves do something else, the surviving PR won't get anything.
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06-4-2017, 02:14 PM | #238 |
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Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread
Mass claiming helps solve town not wolves. But solving town we can know who the wolves are
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06-4-2017, 02:16 PM | #239 |
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Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread
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06-4-2017, 02:16 PM | #240 | |
the Haku
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Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread
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I guess they can kill one and assign the kill to the other role making both PRs useless. I still think they should claim so we never lynch them by mistake and for solving conflicts because we're just blindly targeting players at this point. |
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