TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

[StoicRoivaS]

I wouldn't mind a tentative/best case game plan, say, a pawn comes only after they have 2 red names to bring with them. Over the course of 3-4 days (hopefully) this sacrifices 2 , possibly kamikaze, greens for 4 red names (out of 2 millers and 4 wolves). We lose 2 "humans" but we still have 2 living seers to peg the last two. Suggestions and or complaints?

[nforcer06164]

See, the throwing out the "sacrifice" is exactly the reason why I don't want to try this beyond Day 1.

Scenario 1: We have two confirmed humans. The seers have contact, can work together, and form a huge alliance. Huge gain in chance of human victory.

Scenario 2: The danger iggy warns about. One human comes forward, and is dead meat for the wolves. Surprise, the wolves are going to kill a human anyway. That does not change the fact that that human may be a kamikaze, and remember, seer picks occur after wolf picks during the night; the seer may never get a report if a human is killed. If we only get one human, the plan goes null and we work with two human alliances behind-the-scenes.

Scenario 3: No humans come forward. We lose nothing, and we potentially have nabbed two wolves.

Honestly, the only disadvantage I see is losing one confirmed human, which we're going to have tons of in the following days. And, who's to say that confirmed human isn't a kamikaze?

I still say we go for it. Note that I don't advocate this plan after Day 1. If this doesn't work today, we'll have to let alliances work on their own, as separate camps.

[Afrobean]

wow nforcer

You're bending logic to your whim. Yes, wolves are stabbing in the dark every night and yes they will definitely kill a human every night. However, you make it sound as though they're only having a chance of killing a kamikaze if they kill a seer's green puppet. A wolf has no greater chance to kill a kamikaze than anything else, EXCEPT if they seer a blue and decide to attack that blue.

And, who's to say that confirmed human isn't a kamikaze?

The chance of any player seer'd green to be the kamikaze is the same chance that any random human killed is a kamikaze.

Actually, it would be 2/10 or 1/5 for the wolf kill, due to there having been another lynch (assuming human because... well duh, it's statistically most likely to happen). And 2/9 for the seer's (next night, that is... last night was 2/10 or 1/5), because the seer wouldn't seer themself.

Can someone who is especially good with statistics run the probability of each scenario nforcer just listed as well. I'd do it, but I'm afraid I was never the best at stats and I don't remember a lot of the rules.

oh ps

Scenario 3: No humans come forward. We lose nothing, and we potentially have nabbed two wolves.

I know enough statistics to know that even if both seers see a "red" the probability of them both ACTUALLY being red is 36%.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Somewhere back in this thread the chances of seering a green human is 53%. So the chances of both of the seers finding a green is between 25-30%. (Which I stated before)

Chances of finding a red is 40% so the chances of both seers getting a red is lower than finding two greens. (But maybe by only 10-15%)

The other 50% of the time or so you've got a split between finding a red and green.

Originally Posted by nforcer

Honestly, the only disadvantage I see is losing one confirmed human, which we're going to have tons of in the following days.

And the only disadvantage to staying quiet is that you have 1 (MAYBE 2) overlapped seer results.

[FoJaR]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

rofl@fojar

it's a safety vote. i'm gonna be active, but probably not when all the voting happens, i'll be at my fiance's, so i wanted a backup just in case.

you seem really human to me, so i'll probably change it but i dont know who to yet.

[xObserveRx]

On second thought, Iggy's plan does seem like it's rather credible.

Looking from the wolves' perspective, they're most likely relying on their seer's pick for the night for kills. If they see a green, they're most likely hitting that person. It would only make sense. And if they're hitting what their seer sees as green, it's either a human, or a red miller.

So let's say that our seers don't find some common ground till night 3 or 4 or 5 even, they'll both at least have notes to compare with each other, to get an alliance together.

The only snag in this plan is if the wolves do decide to get risky, which seems rather dangerous from a day 3 on perspective (assuming a wolf has already been lynched by day 3.) If they're hitting blues regardless of the risk, by day 4 or 5 one, or both, of our seers could be gone; possibly without ever having found some common ground. That'd suck a lot.

But overall, this plan is clearly the safer play. I'm all for taking risks that could lead to big pay-offs, but Iggy's plan is pretty solid, I gotta admit that I'm thinking it really may bet the better play here.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Originally Posted by xObserveRx

The only snag in this plan is if the wolves do decide to get risky, which seems rather dangerous from a day 3 on perspective (assuming a wolf has already been lynched by day 3.) If they're hitting blues regardless of the risk, by day 4 or 5 one, or both, of our seers could be gone; possibly without ever having found some common ground. That'd suck a lot.

If they hit blues then public alliance or not there's really no difference... we would still be getting screwed.

I dare the wolves to try to fake a hidden seer alliance strategy. That would be so funny because not only would they get slaughtered but they would be doing a lot of dirty work for us too. I would explain how this would happen, but I'd rather see tham try it and fail rather than telling them exactly how badly faking would be.

[Omeganitros]

I, too, see Iggy's point, as well as blah's. I usually love taking chances, but not in a Werewolf Game.
Last time I took a chance was when I was the seer (but, in a twist, I could only use my power up to two or three times) in Kilga's Galaxy Angel game, and I thought to myself, "You know, with only a few chances to use my power, my alliance-buidling is limited. Oh, I know! I'll just contact someone in the game right away with a seer check, on Night 1, and tell them I'm the seer if I think they're behaving okay! Then I'll already have an alliance going!" My logic was that I had a better chance of revealing myself to a human than a wolf, which was true, but then evilbutterfly ended up being a Wolf. ;_;

Anyways, I myself would prefer hidden alliances over all this mumbo jumbo. I mean, jeez, aside from the chances of something going awry, it's also more interesting when the game has more challenge to it. When nforcer's plan would remove a lot of.
Er, not that I'm against beneficial plans or anything. But, you know...

[Omeganitros]

*without a seer check

[rioting]

Damn I missed a lot. I just skimmed through the thread; I'm going to think about it, reread some parts and get some posts in now that I have time this weekend.

Quick 2cents: Right now I think a hidden alliance is smarter than a public one, because obviously anything posted in the thread can be read by the wolves too. Seers should stay anonymous, kamikaze too.

[roundbox]

I believe the seers/kamis should reveal themselves late in the game when a "good" hidden alliance is formed.
I also thought up a "worst case scenario" with something of the matter as well. Regarding false seers. A wolf posing as a seer could obviously start an alliance with a single human seer, leaving out the second. Obviously they would keep the wolves and everyone else safe, but the only way to deflect this is to have each seer give a one-time check on eachother just to make sure that they're both green (seeing as when a seer identifies a seer it just comes back as HUMAN).
Yeah, you probably all realize this and such, but I just wanted to point something relevant out. Seers/kamis, keep yourself hidden until a stable alliance has been formed. For now, I'm going to go play some WarioWare for Wii.

[Kilgamayan]

Uh, Stable isn't playing this game.

[nforcer06164]

Of course I'm going to try to defend my own strategy, Afro. People like iggy are too hard-headed to even consider it.

Whatever, guys. A lot of you don't see the advantages. I only want this tried for Day 1, but apparently we're too "scared" to give it a shot. This game is going to be pretty stale because we're afraid to try something.

The way things are looking, this isn't going to happen. Tokzic seems to be the only one that agrees it's a good idea. I wish you'd all come up with something better, but whatever.

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by nforcer06164

Of course I'm going to try to defend my own strategy, Afro. People like iggy are too hard-headed to even consider it.

Defending your ideas is one thing. You were picking and choosing what logic you wanted to present to try to make your idea look more favorable. In reality, the only outcome in which we benefit in your idea is a fairly small chance. In every other instance, it loses us a seer'd green. Honestly, this looks to me like a textbook example of a "lets help HUMANS oh ps it really helps the wolves more but ur not supposed to notice that now watch as i distract you with poor logic" that wolves sometimes use, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt for now.

As for hardheadedness: Why can't you just say "ok yeah my plan has a pretty good advantage, but the low probability of it happening makes it not worth actually using?" I suggested a plan back on page one ("if 2 or more are seer'd red, they should be announced in the thread"). Notice how I dropped it totally when I realized how unlikely it would be for the plan to actually go through successfully (that is to say that there being two red millers throws it off so much that it'd only really have a really strong advantage if the seer sees probably 3 or 4 or more "reds")?

Originally Posted by nforcer

Whatever, guys. A lot of you don't see the advantages. I only want this tried for Day 1, but apparently we're too "scared" to give it a shot. This game is going to be pretty stale because we're afraid to try something.

Haha. "This game is going to be pretty stale..." How would I describe a game in which a public alliance says "lynch these people today"? I would describe that as "stale". How would I describe a game in which there is no seer out in the open, but is still working on a safety net for endgame (ie an alliance of seer'd greens) in the background without totally breaking the game in favor of the humans? I'd call that "interesting" and "fun". I like to play this game for the deduction factor. I don't like all this "oops ur seer'd as red u ded" crap... I want it to be more like: "I have evidence that you're a wolf... you're dead." Get it? And in this instance, it just happens that your strategy is too unlikely too play out effectively as my preferred strategy.

Originally Posted by nforcer

The way things are looking, this isn't going to happen. Tokzic seems to be the only one that agrees it's a good idea. I wish you'd all come up with something better, but whatever.

Hopefully, neither you or Tokzic got seer'd then (or maybe not if one of you is a wolf... ), but then again, if you both got seer'd as human that would probably work out ok rofl. Too bad the probability of you both being seer'd and also both being green (that is, not wolf or red miller) is like retardedly low.

EDIT: rofl I typed so much... probably unnecessary haha

EDIT*2: Didn't capitalize something correctly. And it was the first word too...

[Tokzic]

I really don't see why everyone's against nforcer's plan, but if there's not full support, it'll probably backfire, so kk let's go with the plan that we'd go with assuming we missed with nforcer's yes excellent idea sure whatever

I will not be around whatsoever tomorrow due to snowboarding and have absolutely no time to read the thread thoroughly right now, so I'm going to throw a random vote for inactivity and not-getting-phantomed on rioting. Nothing personal.

[Afrobean]

hey votes to ensure you don't get a phantom later are hip these days, right?

I'm gonna go with roundbox.

Originally Posted by roundbox

I believe the seers/kamis should reveal themselves late in the game when a "good" hidden alliance is formed.

This doesn't make any sense at all and doesn't help anything at all. All it would do is tell the wolves to who to wolf (ie seers) and who not to (ie kamikaze).

And don't even think about giving me **** for calling a new player on something. Go take a look at last game.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Originally Posted by nforcer06164

Of course I'm going to try to defend my own strategy, Afro. People like iggy are too hard-headed to even consider it.

Why do you have to call just me on it. A lot of other people agree with me, you're just singling me out of a group consensus.

Originally Posted by nforcer

Whatever, guys. A lot of you don't see the advantages. I only want this tried for Day 1, but apparently we're too "scared" to give it a shot. This game is going to be pretty stale because we're afraid to try something.

We don't see your advantages and you don't see your risks. Besides, I may be your biggest opponent but I've also considered your plan and what it would entail (post 40 and 63 for example). I've at least given your plan some credit while you seem to demerit anything I've brought up as illogical and hardheaded. To me that says that you're not even thinking about anything else except what you're thinking about.

And don't you dare say I'm too scared to do anything. If the benefits were high enough I would do anything. And I've proven that many times before. I'm one of the most liberal, aggressive player here, but I'm not willing to take risks if there are easier ways to achieve the same goal.

Originally Posted by nforcer

I wish you'd all come up with something better, but whatever.

No you meant to say that you wish people would go with what you say. XD

[blahblah18]

sorry i haven't been aroudn tremendously, I promise its jstu during the weekends , and otherwise i'm aroudn a ton more, plus i'm always available on AIM, as i've spoken to several people already through it... I nkow some of you may find this a stupid reason but i'm voting afrobean because he's being way too logical and not nearly passionate or angry enough from the enraged human i know and love. Something's different about it, and maybe someone else can tell me if i'm crazy

[Afrobean]

blah, are you drunk?

[roundbox]

Afro, disregard my entire post. I'm retarded and tried to come up with a "lol, plan" post so I wouldn't be the one quiet guy sitting in the corner with nothing to say.

I think nforcer has a good idea and more people should 'gree to it. His plan would easily come up with a green victory, but we seriously need to actually TRY it, otherwise, the game could quickly fall into the hands of the wolves.

Oh yeah, and afrobean. I honestly have no idea to vote for at this point in game, and I'm just voting for you because you, well, voted for me.

LOL, 100th post get?