TWG Turbo 35: A Small Gathering [GAME THREAD]

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by leetic

Still not too enamored with Raeko's posting. It feels like they want to nudge people without actually pushing them. The only real strong stance is on Haze, why them over anyone else?

My strongest read is not Haze it's Lar, I sheeped Lar's vote last phase because I town read him

Originally Posted by leetic

Like what are you actually getting at at this post? Is it an attempt to cut into their worldview, a nudge to get them to push me, just a meaningless observation, etc.?

I don't understand what Haze means and I want to get clarification. What does Haze find contradictory and why is it not AI despite being contradictory? I'm not clear on that.

The leading question where you suggest me asking for clarification is "just a meaningless observation" is noted! Seems a bit nit picky :thinking:

[MixMasterLar]

Hey Zenith does that bigger post of yours have a vote/declaration of vote and takes a hard stance on the wagon you want to see tonight? Because if not we kinda need that from you

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Honestly Zenith being so paranoid at Roundbox's case at he start of the day fits the profile of the wolf who was too scared to keep him alive one more phrase for the potential mislynch so hard I just don't know if I come off this wagon

Raeko and to a lesser extent Haze are being really underwhelming this phase. I'd like both to declare who they would vote for and make a case for that wagon

I want to see people take some stances and not prod about

The more I think about it the more I wanna clear up leetic. They were a driving force behind Roundbox feeling pressured to claim

And if I'm using the most info that I personally have, leetic is the only one on Xel's wagon whose flip I don't have, and it seems best for me to resolve that slot

I realize that it looks different from you guy's perspective

[_Zenith_]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Hey Zenith does that bigger post of yours have a vote/declaration of vote and takes a hard stance on the wagon you want to see tonight? Because if not we kinda need that from you

It does

I am trying to be here to live chat with people and also iso further/post more so I'm here and not here at the same time

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

And if I'm using the most info that I personally have, leetic is the only one on Xel's wagon whose flip I don't have, and it seems best for me to resolve that slot

I realize that it looks different from you guy's perspective

If you got more info then us then share that but otherwise I have Leetic completely off the table and I'm not interested in entertaining that lynch

His push on Roundbox was consistent with previous reads and questioning, and his handling of Roundbox's claim doesn't seem to be from a wolf but rather aggressive town

[leetic]

A thought experiment that may or may not be helpful, we'll see. If the roundbox kill meaningfully points to someone, then you also have to consider whether or not they had an alternate option that might have been better from their perspective. So, from a wolf perspective, who would be the "optimal" choice for each player to kill if roundbox is discounted?

Haze - Probably me, if we're being honest. Nobody was really wolfreading them,so probably taking me out would remove the biggest voice pushing them to generate content.
MML - Haze most likely. Haze expressed a vague interest to vote MML a couple of times (like on 103) and is one of the more townread players. As MML is townread by most of the FFR regulars, it might have been a good strategy for w!MML to eliminate one of the wild cards.
Raeko - MML or me, they were in the vague periphery of our lists and the decision would come down to whether they wanted to go with the known quantity or wild card. Ultimately, though, from this perspective roundbox would be equally valid.
Zenith - Raeko, due to the EoD push. Haze retracted the push and could potentially be swayed by w!Zenith, but again, roundbox would be equally if not more valid here.

Ultimately what I'm getting here is that, even looking at the best alternative options for Raeko and Zenith roundbox is still probably the better choice there. Haze and MML arguably had better options, but not to the point that I would consider a roundbox kill from either of them completely out of the question.

[leetic]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

The more I think about it the more I wanna clear up leetic. They were a driving force behind Roundbox feeling pressured to claim

And if I'm using the most info that I personally have, leetic is the only one on Xel's wagon whose flip I don't have, and it seems best for me to resolve that slot

I realize that it looks different from you guy's perspective

Just making sure we aren't operating under different definitions of the word "clear"

Also, I think those voting roundbox were the biggest contributors to forcing them to claim, but that's just me

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

If you got more info then us then share that but otherwise I have Leetic completely off the table and I'm not interested in entertaining that lynch

His push on Roundbox was consistent with previous reads and questioning, and his handling of Roundbox's claim doesn't seem to be from a wolf but rather aggressive town

I just mean that since I know my own alignment, I know that the final count looks like
XelNya - 4 (leetic, Roundbox, XelNya, Raeko)

leetic is the only unknown there for me.

[_Zenith_]

Originally Posted by leetic

A thought experiment that may or may not be helpful, we'll see. If the roundbox kill meaningfully points to someone, then you also have to consider whether or not they had an alternate option that might have been better from their perspective. So, from a wolf perspective, who would be the "optimal" choice for each player to kill if roundbox is discounted?

Haze - Probably me, if we're being honest. Nobody was really wolfreading them,so probably taking me out would remove the biggest voice pushing them to generate content.
MML - Haze most likely. Haze expressed a vague interest to vote MML a couple of times (like on 103) and is one of the more townread players. As MML is townread by most of the FFR regulars, it might have been a good strategy for w!MML to eliminate one of the wild cards.
Raeko - MML or me, they were in the vague periphery of our lists and the decision would come down to whether they wanted to go with the known quantity or wild card. Ultimately, though, from this perspective roundbox would be equally valid.
Zenith - Raeko, due to the EoD push. Haze retracted the push and could potentially be swayed by w!Zenith, but again, roundbox would be equally if not more valid here.

Ultimately what I'm getting here is that, even looking at the best alternative options for Raeko and Zenith roundbox is still probably the better choice there. Haze and MML arguably had better options, but not to the point that I would consider a roundbox kill from either of them completely out of the question.

Theorycrafting on what wolf people would do here is never in our benefit to discuss, imo.

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by leetic

Just making sure we aren't operating under different definitions of the word "clear"

Also, I think those voting roundbox were the biggest contributors to forcing them to claim, but that's just me

Hey hey buddy, lets not sell your part short now! Ya did a fine job getting grillin' at that BBQ!

[leetic]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

And if I'm using the most info that I personally have, leetic is the only one on Xel's wagon whose flip I don't have, and it seems best for me to resolve that slot

This kind of statistical thinking isn't really helpful in a solo wolf game. Consider that any random group of four players has a 4/7 shot of containing the wolf, which is not far from a 50% chance

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by leetic

Just making sure we aren't operating under different definitions of the word "clear"

Also, I think those voting roundbox were the biggest contributors to forcing them to claim, but that's just me

Originally Posted by leetic

I'm fine with a roundbox lynch. You better claim if you're Seer

Originally Posted by leetic

So I'm assuming you're not Seer?

If you aren't gonna answer this question, I will switch my vote to you

idk man you kinda directly pressured him to claim seer specifically

I made a vote which put him at +2 and wasn't even meant to be my final vote

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[_Zenith_]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

Theorycrafting on what wolf people would do here is never in our benefit to discuss, imo.

And if you want an expanded thought on that, I do not like setting myself or town up for forming a bias somewhere they prevents them from seeing all options available, and seeing where "this or that" can go in my experience tends to lead to that.

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

Theorycrafting on what wolf people would do here is never in our benefit to discuss, imo.

I agree

[leetic]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

Theorycrafting on what wolf people would do here is never in our benefit to discuss, imo.

That's basically what NKA is though, and I have caught a few wolves from that alone. It's more the other side, when instead of asking "who would have motivation to kill roundbox?" I'm asking "who would have the least motivation to kill roundbox?"

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

I just mean that since I know my own alignment, I know that the final count looks like
XelNya - 4 (leetic, Roundbox, XelNya, Raeko)

leetic is the only unknown there for me.

There is only one wolf this game, so an all town wagon seems much more likely then normal

If there has to be a wolf on there then I would choose you, tbh

But even just from your POV I don't think solo wolf games are the best place to clear wagons like this

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

Theorycrafting on what wolf people would do here is never in our benefit to discuss, imo.

I don't find it useful but like, it isn't beneficial for wolves now is it? He's at least trying to attack it from different angles

[leetic]

Zenith has the most moments that are outright wolfy, but Raeko has the least that are towny

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

But even just from your POV I don't think solo wolf games are the best place to clear wagons like this

I know, that's why I said I understand that this would only really be for myself and doesn't make sense for you guys to go along with

But if I had my choice to do what I wanted to do, that's probably what I would do. Not that it is the best idea haha

Though honestly leetic would be my second choice anyway probably and I don't have a huge case for Zenith beyond wanting to follow roundbox's wishes

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by leetic

Raeko has the least that are towny

what does this mean?

[MixMasterLar]

Guess I'll go get dinner prepared while I wait on this big Zenith post


3 hours remaining, gang