TWG Turbo 35: A Small Gathering [GAME THREAD]

[leetic]

Like the push on me D1 is something a noob town would do, but a noob wolf would be less likely to do. For an experienced player, it's a bit of the other way around. Their entrance today of just yelling at the last EoD is something I see a lot from noob town but will always come across as performative if it comes from someone who has been playing for longer than a year or so.

[MixMasterLar]

Hey Zenith does that bigger post of yours have a vote/declaration of vote and takes a hard stance on the wagon you want to see tonight? Because if not we kinda need that from you

[_Zenith_]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Hey Zenith does that bigger post of yours have a vote/declaration of vote and takes a hard stance on the wagon you want to see tonight? Because if not we kinda need that from you

It does

I am trying to be here to live chat with people and also iso further/post more so I'm here and not here at the same time

[leetic]

A thought experiment that may or may not be helpful, we'll see. If the roundbox kill meaningfully points to someone, then you also have to consider whether or not they had an alternate option that might have been better from their perspective. So, from a wolf perspective, who would be the "optimal" choice for each player to kill if roundbox is discounted?

Haze - Probably me, if we're being honest. Nobody was really wolfreading them,so probably taking me out would remove the biggest voice pushing them to generate content.
MML - Haze most likely. Haze expressed a vague interest to vote MML a couple of times (like on 103) and is one of the more townread players. As MML is townread by most of the FFR regulars, it might have been a good strategy for w!MML to eliminate one of the wild cards.
Raeko - MML or me, they were in the vague periphery of our lists and the decision would come down to whether they wanted to go with the known quantity or wild card. Ultimately, though, from this perspective roundbox would be equally valid.
Zenith - Raeko, due to the EoD push. Haze retracted the push and could potentially be swayed by w!Zenith, but again, roundbox would be equally if not more valid here.

Ultimately what I'm getting here is that, even looking at the best alternative options for Raeko and Zenith roundbox is still probably the better choice there. Haze and MML arguably had better options, but not to the point that I would consider a roundbox kill from either of them completely out of the question.

[_Zenith_]

Originally Posted by leetic

A thought experiment that may or may not be helpful, we'll see. If the roundbox kill meaningfully points to someone, then you also have to consider whether or not they had an alternate option that might have been better from their perspective. So, from a wolf perspective, who would be the "optimal" choice for each player to kill if roundbox is discounted?

Haze - Probably me, if we're being honest. Nobody was really wolfreading them,so probably taking me out would remove the biggest voice pushing them to generate content.
MML - Haze most likely. Haze expressed a vague interest to vote MML a couple of times (like on 103) and is one of the more townread players. As MML is townread by most of the FFR regulars, it might have been a good strategy for w!MML to eliminate one of the wild cards.
Raeko - MML or me, they were in the vague periphery of our lists and the decision would come down to whether they wanted to go with the known quantity or wild card. Ultimately, though, from this perspective roundbox would be equally valid.
Zenith - Raeko, due to the EoD push. Haze retracted the push and could potentially be swayed by w!Zenith, but again, roundbox would be equally if not more valid here.

Ultimately what I'm getting here is that, even looking at the best alternative options for Raeko and Zenith roundbox is still probably the better choice there. Haze and MML arguably had better options, but not to the point that I would consider a roundbox kill from either of them completely out of the question.

Theorycrafting on what wolf people would do here is never in our benefit to discuss, imo.

[_Zenith_]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

Theorycrafting on what wolf people would do here is never in our benefit to discuss, imo.

And if you want an expanded thought on that, I do not like setting myself or town up for forming a bias somewhere they prevents them from seeing all options available, and seeing where "this or that" can go in my experience tends to lead to that.

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

Theorycrafting on what wolf people would do here is never in our benefit to discuss, imo.

I agree

[leetic]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

Theorycrafting on what wolf people would do here is never in our benefit to discuss, imo.

That's basically what NKA is though, and I have caught a few wolves from that alone. It's more the other side, when instead of asking "who would have motivation to kill roundbox?" I'm asking "who would have the least motivation to kill roundbox?"

[_Zenith_]

Originally Posted by leetic

That's basically what NKA is though, and I have caught a few wolves from that alone. It's more the other side, when instead of asking "who would have motivation to kill roundbox?" I'm asking "who would have the least motivation to kill roundbox?"

I would actually care to discuss it more post-game if I'm being frank

I think the weight of the benefit from doing so is lost in a solo wolf game

[leetic]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

I would actually care to discuss it more post-game if I'm being frank

I think the weight of the benefit from doing so is lost in a solo wolf game

Solo game actually makes it more usable as you don't have to worry about partner dynamics. Still, I do agree that it's usually better to get a pattern of kills before holding any conclusions from them to a high degree of certainty.

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

I just mean that since I know my own alignment, I know that the final count looks like
XelNya - 4 (leetic, Roundbox, XelNya, Raeko)

leetic is the only unknown there for me.

There is only one wolf this game, so an all town wagon seems much more likely then normal

If there has to be a wolf on there then I would choose you, tbh

But even just from your POV I don't think solo wolf games are the best place to clear wagons like this

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

Theorycrafting on what wolf people would do here is never in our benefit to discuss, imo.

I don't find it useful but like, it isn't beneficial for wolves now is it? He's at least trying to attack it from different angles

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

But even just from your POV I don't think solo wolf games are the best place to clear wagons like this

I know, that's why I said I understand that this would only really be for myself and doesn't make sense for you guys to go along with

But if I had my choice to do what I wanted to do, that's probably what I would do. Not that it is the best idea haha

Though honestly leetic would be my second choice anyway probably and I don't have a huge case for Zenith beyond wanting to follow roundbox's wishes

[leetic]

Zenith has the most moments that are outright wolfy, but Raeko has the least that are towny

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by leetic

Raeko has the least that are towny

what does this mean?

[leetic]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

what does this mean?

Some of Zenith's posts would be really bold for a solo wolf to do, as they attract attention for little gain (the push on me for instance) while you seem mostly content to stick to the background here. It's balanced out by a good portion of Zenith's posts being wolf-motivated while less so for you, but I guess we'll find out when Zenith makes this large post they've been supposedly working on

[MixMasterLar]

Guess I'll go get dinner prepared while I wait on this big Zenith post


3 hours remaining, gang

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by leetic

So I'm assuming you're not Seer?

If you aren't gonna answer this question, I will switch my vote to you

This post especially is really really bad in hindsight

[leetic]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

This post especially is really really bad in hindsight

Is it though? We avoided mislynching them

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by leetic

Is it though? We avoided mislynching them

who cares? he was forced to claim and killed in the night. He might as well have died there. You could have voted for him and maybe I would have removed my vote, anything could have happened but you chose to pressure him to claim multiple times

Yes it's really really bad

[leetic]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

who cares? he was forced to claim and killed in the night. He might as well have died there. You could have voted for him and maybe I would have removed my vote, anything could have happened but you chose to pressure him to claim multiple times

Yes it's really really bad

And if I voted him he'd be near insta lol. XelNya is an easier loss than whoever would have been killed in the world we mislynched roundbox anyway.