TWG CLXI - Egregious Miscalculations GAME THREAD

[dAnceguy117]

busy till tomorrow evening and then work should leave me alone for a while. free early sat, playing shadowrun later that day but I'll be around.

[Hakulyte]

I think Storn is Innocent Child.

He said he couldn't be mislynched. D0
He said to prepare for another wagon. D1
He didn't defend himself on purpose because of it and could do whatever he wants.

T-Force most likely noticed the "cannot be mislynched" as well.

So, that would explain everything about his behavior and this is why he shouldn't be lynched.

"..or he's a wolf who's lying since the start on purpose."

That's possible, but that feels really unlikely to me.

I'm telling this now because if I'm wrong, the real Innocent Child should claim and we can lynch Storn and also prepare for the next day.

[dadcop2]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

I think Storn is Innocent Child.

He said he couldn't be mislynched. D0
He said to prepare for another wagon. D1
He didn't defend himself on purpose because of it and could do whatever he wants.

T-Force most likely noticed the "cannot be mislynched" as well.

So, that would explain everything about his behavior and this is why he shouldn't be lynched.

"..or he's a wolf who's lying since the start on purpose."

That's possible, but that feels really unlikely to me.

I'm telling this now because if I'm wrong, the real Innocent Child should claim and we can lynch Storn and also prepare for the next day.

i actually wouldve never thought of that, good catch

[Hakulyte]

Actually, if you're the real Innocent Child and you're not Storn, don't claim.

We can just pressure him.

[Hakulyte]

@DFR

Do you have stronger reasons to believe Storn is a wolf?

[danceflashrevo]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

@DFR

Do you have stronger reasons to believe Storn is a wolf?

I read the can't be mislynched a slip in the other direction but that's a pretty cool catch by you.

He's done nothing that is very towny in my eyes even last phase so I guess no would be the answer to that question?

[ShadoWolfe]

What the shit, Haku?!

[ShadoWolfe]

You don't ever discuss blues or your thoughts on who they might be until they out.

What kind of logic is "I'm telling this now because if I'm wrong, the real Innocent Child should claim and we can lynch Storn and also prepare for the next day. "?

You're literally saying he has to either be a wolf or IC, and if there's a claim then we should immediately lynch storn. What if he were to flip VC? We'd have lynched another town and wasted our IC on a forced-out by another player.

We're already in a tight spot. Please don't cause our slim chance to become nonexistent.

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

You don't ever discuss blues or your thoughts on who they might be until they out.

What kind of logic is "I'm telling this now because if I'm wrong, the real Innocent Child should claim and we can lynch Storn and also prepare for the next day. "?

You're literally saying he has to either be a wolf or IC, and if there's a claim then we should immediately lynch storn. What if he were to flip VC? We'd have lynched another town and wasted our IC on a forced-out by another player.

We're already in a tight spot. Please don't cause our slim chance to become nonexistent.

Fake soft claming IC as a VT is not a play that you should ever make if you want to follow your win condition fmpov.

I tried to be subtle last phase, but it feels like the others just didn't understand why I was town reading Storn. (even after pushing)

I can understand where you're coming from since you just entered the game, but that's how bad the last phase has been.

I didn't like the positive reaction from dadcop2/DFR on me trying to call out the IC, but I guess they're happy to know what's going on.

meh. I guess I should have waited longer. At same time, I didn't want the entire phase to be centered about "possibly lynching Storn".

Do you think there was a better play here?

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Fake soft claming IC as a VT is not a play that you should ever make if you want to follow your win condition fmpov.

Separating this away from my main point: softing a PR is something a lot of VTs do to try to draw the nightkill away from PRs. It's definitely something town does, and it can be extremely useful for town. It's one of the reasons we all leave hypothetical cop reports, because it helps protect PRs.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

I tried to be subtle last phase, but it feels like the others just didn't understand why I was town reading Storn. (even after pushing)

I can understand where you're coming from since you just entered the game, but that's how bad the last phase has been.

I didn't like the positive reaction from dadcop2/DFR on me trying to call out the IC, but I guess they're happy to know what's going on.

meh. I guess I should have waited longer. At same time, I didn't want the entire phase to be centered about "possibly lynching Storn".

Do you think there was a better play here?

Absolutely. The better play was to not mention your suspicion at all. There wasn't any new pressure on Storn this phase. dadcop straight up said we should stop just thinking about storn, and dAnce had suggested going after actives. Also, the one vote on him was from DFR, who I had just said I thought was scum. Storn wasn't in a major danger of being lynched right at that very moment, wouldn't you say?

Even if he was, announcing you think someone is blue does not help town. If they're blue, they'll know when to claim and that can only be decided by them or by general suggestions from town, like "I think IC should claim". If you're right and they're blue, you've just condemned them to death, and if they're a wolf, you don't want to give them a way out (by fakeclaiming with support from someone who thinks you're blue). If they're VT, you've just put them in a really tight spot.

Simply put, you don't discuss blues. It's just bad.
If you needed to defend him, you could've just said something about not wanting to lynch him.

Why did "the others" need to know why you were townreading him? Exposing the IC would be bad, so its better that nobody understands your reasoning than everybody (including the wolves).

[ShadoWolfe]

Storn, if you're VT then just consider totally ignoring this whole bullshit assumption Haku is making and play on. If you're IC or wolf, do whatever you want.

[FreezinIce]

Driving atm but long story short my push on AA was complete bullshit. He was my strongest townread, pushing the game forward, and was almost universally townread and was pretty much locked for dying next night. And I didn't want him to die and I wanted to live too.

So I fabricated a situation where it would be advantageous to wolves to let us both live and at the same time shrink the pool of people they were killing to not include me and my strongest townread so they would have a higher chance of hitting one of their own. I made sure to breadcrumb my plan so looking back and reading my push it should be really obvious that was what I was doing. And I think near EoD AA realized it too, which was a bonus.

Too bad the lynch failed, we got a modkill, and even in the shrunk pool they still hit a town. AA slot still alive so that worked at least. But yeah that explains my despair in a nutshell.

So we have that, and the knowledge that mml got brave and pushed on AA again after reading my fake aggression. I'll sort that info out later I guess.

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase

Oh boy thanks for moving me one step further to living through the night

Quote relevant

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

Driving atm but long story short my push on AA was complete bullshit. He was my strongest townread, pushing the game forward, and was almost universally townread and was pretty much locked for dying next night. And I didn't want him to die and I wanted to live too.

So I fabricated a situation where it would be advantageous to wolves to let us both live and at the same time shrink the pool of people they were killing to not include me and my strongest townread so they would have a higher chance of hitting one of their own. I made sure to breadcrumb my plan so looking back and reading my push it should be really obvious that was what I was doing. And I think near EoD AA realized it too, which was a bonus.

Too bad the lynch failed, we got a modkill, and even in the shrunk pool they still hit a town. AA slot still alive so that worked at least. But yeah that explains my despair in a nutshell.

So we have that, and the knowledge that mml got brave and pushed on AA again after reading my fake aggression. I'll sort that info out later I guess.

I wanna see how people respond to this before I give my thoughts on it.

[MixMasterLar]

.......


Paz, man oh man.

Originally Posted by dadcop2

ugh considering we had 2 blues die last night this game is pretty close to dead. how about lets stop thinking about just storn? the t-force and pazzaz wagons started up very easily and a lot of the arguments against both pazzaz and storn are based on inactivity. we thought similar things about r e and he was town too. how about we reevaluate what the fuck is actually happening before just quickly starting up another simple wagon. freezin now would be the time to talk about your case against AA or rather the guy who replaced him

How would AA say this?

This post seems pure.

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Hi dadcop, I'm "the guy who replaced him". Can you give me your thoughts on DFR and MML please? I've been catching up but would appreciate your perspective.

A G G R E S S I V E D E F L E C T I O N

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

C'mon dude you have to give me a little more than that. Can you tell me which posts from MML made you townread him? What's bothering you about DFR to leave him on the fence?

Something, please.. anything more than that.

Shado what's your take on my interactions with AA?

Originally Posted by dAnceguy117

what the shit. what am I reading

Something you probably should have commented on yesterday.

Originally Posted by dAnceguy117

townest on left, most wolfest on right:
shado < I wanna say haku < everyone else

actives get pushed today.

I'm for pushing actives but you're gonna have to explain Shado being the top read town to me. I know you townread AA but I don't see why he's that high.

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Separating this away from my main point: softing a PR is something a lot of VTs do to try to draw the nightkill away from PRs. It's definitely something town does, and it can be extremely useful for town. It's one of the reasons we all leave hypothetical cop reports, because it helps protect PRs.



Absolutely. The better play was to not mention your suspicion at all. There wasn't any new pressure on Storn this phase. dadcop straight up said we should stop just thinking about storn, and dAnce had suggested going after actives. Also, the one vote on him was from DFR, who I had just said I thought was scum. Storn wasn't in a major danger of being lynched right at that very moment, wouldn't you say?

Even if he was, announcing you think someone is blue does not help town. If they're blue, they'll know when to claim and that can only be decided by them or by general suggestions from town, like "I think IC should claim". If you're right and they're blue, you've just condemned them to death, and if they're a wolf, you don't want to give them a way out (by fakeclaiming with support from someone who thinks you're blue). If they're VT, you've just put them in a really tight spot.

Simply put, you don't discuss blues. It's just bad.
If you needed to defend him, you could've just said something about not wanting to lynch him.

Why did "the others" need to know why you were townreading him? Exposing the IC would be bad, so its better that nobody understands your reasoning than everybody (including the wolves).

Didnt mean to quote this

But to add on: Shado's right.
It's hysterical tho because "knowing when to claim"probably would have helped in the FE game lol

[Hakulyte]

I have a strange feeling it's not the first time I mess up like this. I'll be more careful in my next games.
I just thought town needed information really badly at this point and I didn't knew what to tell DFR after he asked me why I didn't want to lynch Storn. Sorry about that.

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

I wanna see how people respond to this before I give my thoughts on it.

It's something I can see FreezinIce doing as either alignment. It's kind of reseting his alignment and AA's as well. Do you think it's indicator of TvT/WvW ?

[danceflashrevo]

[quote=Hakulyte;4500858I didn't like the positive reaction from dadcop2/DFR on me trying to call out the IC, but I guess they're happy to know what's going on.[/QUOTE]

Lol you're misunderstanding why I was happy. I was impressed that you thought about that but alright.

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

Driving atm but long story short my push on AA was complete bullshit. He was my strongest townread, pushing the game forward, and was almost universally townread and was pretty much locked for dying next night. And I didn't want him to die and I wanted to live too.

So I fabricated a situation where it would be advantageous to wolves to let us both live and at the same time shrink the pool of people they were killing to not include me and my strongest townread so they would have a higher chance of hitting one of their own. I made sure to breadcrumb my plan so looking back and reading my push it should be really obvious that was what I was doing. And I think near EoD AA realized it too, which was a bonus.

Too bad the lynch failed, we got a modkill, and even in the shrunk pool they still hit a town. AA slot still alive so that worked at least. But yeah that explains my despair in a nutshell.

So we have that, and the knowledge that mml got brave and pushed on AA again after reading my fake aggression. I'll sort that info out later I guess.

Pretty
Sure
Wolves
Can't kill
Each other

Read OP

Why should I believe this instead of believing that wolves find out AA was red and you're trying to backpeddle convincingly

Dont text or drive but untill you get back to this you and AA Shado are my most suspected actives.

Actually here you

Freezin

Don't forget me

[danceflashrevo]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

It's hysterical tho because "knowing when to claim"probably would have helped in the FE game lol

Triggered

About the Freezin thing, I think it's really odd and kinda confusing. I don't think that them having the argument would've really affected the kill. Personally I read that interaction as TvT at the time, would like to know what other people thought at the time.

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Pretty
Sure
Wolves
Can't kill
Each other

Read OP

Why should I believe this instead of believing that wolves find out AA was red and you're trying to backpeddle convincingly

Dont text or drive but untill you get back to this you and AA Shado are my most suspected actives.

Actually here you

Freezin

Don't forget me

Hey I'll read the op if you do.

After night one, they can kill each other.

So....yeah.