jTWG LXIX: MECHANICAL POWER OF LOVEEEEE Game Thread

[Tps222]

Ok, so day phase, lets do some math.

9 players, 2 wolves, 2 blues.

(Assuming no successful guards scenario)

End of D1: 8 players left
End of N1: 7 players left
End of D2: 6 players left
End of N2: 5 players left
End of D3: 4 players left (If no wolves have been killed by this point, it is game over)

Scenario 2 (1 Random Successful guard)
End of D1: 8 players left
End of N1: 8 players left (successful guard achieved)
End of D2: 7 players left
End of N2: 6 players left
End of D3: 5 players left
End of N3: Game over if no successful guard.

The point of this is, if we don't get a successful guard once, we need to absolutely hit a wolf before the end of day 3, or it is game over for us. Even if we get a guard, the game will end if both wolves are still alive by the end of day 3. If we get multiple successful guards then we could extend that by a day, but that is highly unlikely.

With that in mind, we need to make sure we kill a wolf in the next 2 day phases. With 1 wolf dead and no successful guards we get an additional day phase (d4) where we would have 2 humans against one wolf. This is our most likely scenario. Even if we do get one successful guard and lynch a wolf before the end of day 3 we still won't see the beginning of day 5 (3 humans to 1 wolf at start of d4, if wolf not lynched then its 2 humans to 1 wolf and then wolf has night kill ((only hopes of doctor being alive and guarding the remaining human left to prolong the day).

The resulting strategy from this is that extending it to d4 is in our best interests. It means we would have at least guarded one person or successfully lynched a wolf. This creates a role in which the seer is best suited to fit. If the seer detects a red, they need to announce it. Their death won't affect the overall chances of success for us and the chance of them seering both wolves is really low; this means that their utility is expended when they out a single wolf and extend the game to a potential d4.

The doctor should remain hidden the entire time because the seer can not be guarded. There is no point for the seer to out a green; a green being guarded and leading an alliance is not as beneficial as the seer outing themselves with a red read. With only 7 non-wolves the chances of the doctor being lynched/wolfed is too high to rely on them as anything integral to the plan; they simply will have to take shots in the dark in the hopes of providing a saftey valve for a potential d4 should the seer not produce a red result.

I'm pretty confident that we can steamroll with this strat if we stick with good lynches and don't rush the day(aka seer if you find someone let the discussion take place normally to allow for any connections to be made, then out the red. we can go back to those posts and look for possible clues and connections)

Let me know what you guys think, I haven't been in a real forum TWG in a while and this shits got me hyped