TWG CIII: New Players Welcome

[thesunfan]

I knew how to quote, but I didn't know how to do that with individual posts, thanks.

[Xiz]

hey guys sorry i'll be more active tomorrow, got a lot on my plate right now.
I haven't read the thread but mellon because of past claims I made.

I'll re-read sometime early tomorrow. I should have all my crap work done then. Thx ^^

[dAnceguy117]

reading through this thread is exhausting.

sadly I don't feel like I've come up with anything definitive. here are a couple things I've noticed:

- I've been looking for signs of wolves being coached. I don't think I'm seeing any. that might mean we're likely to find a wolf in runescapedude/jwcgator, as they've been mostly absent.

- I see stuff that looks sketchy to me, and then I end up leaning town for whoever said it. I think I want to move to more of a point spread analysis for my vote this phase, although the huge discrepancies in levels of activity between players makes it tough to gauge. a townie who posts 1000 times is more likely to screw up and say something sketchy than a wolf who posts 10 times.

- thesunfan vs. T-Force has been the majority of the content thus far in the first 24 hours of day 3. it's been useful activity, but only exploring one option can be dangerous. there's still more time to get shit done.




mellonxcollie

Raeko I noticed you have rarely named names during the course of the game. I'd like to hear more from you that doesn't involve discussion about the seers.

[pntballa18]

I'm about as confident as one can be in this game that Charu was a wolf. His death also cleared most of my suspicion of thesunfan and mellon. They were the first two to vote for Charu, quite a bit before the slip up that sealed his fate. Obviously there was probably at least a wolf or two who voted for Charu, but I think they would've voted for him after the slip up. At that point it was pretty clear he was getting lynched, so it would've been beneficial for the wolves to throw their votes in on him to avoid the awkward "why didn't you vote for charu?" question.

I still thesunfan's "NO DON'T SEER ME" thing is sketchy as fuck and might be worth looking in to, but I'm not going to pursue him as a lynch target today.

As poorly as the argument was presented, he still makes a good case against T-Force. In addition to the points he made (the one most damning, in my opinion, being his voting record; he hasn't really voted for players who he says are most suspicious to him), he's been playing this game really cautiously. He only really starts talking once prompted, and otherwise is content sitting back and watching.

I'm also suspicious of jwcgator and runescapedude, but there's not really much we can do about them right now. They could be wolves but it's kind of a waste to lynch someone who's not really playing when there are better leads to vote off of. As of right now, I think T-Force is the most likely to be a wolf.

[mellonxcollie]

Well, to be honest with you I was a bit suspicious of both T-Force and thesunfan at the end of day 2, but now it seems like it's unlikely they are both wolves (unless they are just fucking with us with that exchange). I think T-Force is a better choice right now mainly because of the aforementioned bandwagon voting, and I think thesunfan has made a pretty good case against him all together.

So that is sort of making me see thesunfan as green. My two other top choices for greens would be Xiz and yourself, Danceguy. BDN and Tokzic I believe their claims.

Everyone else I would classify right now as yellow, potential wolves. I am fairly confident about the Charu lynch, but I would still rather be a bit more cautious than expecting to have caught a wolf. My top suspicion from the "yellow" player list would probably be Riotpolice, as I think he needs to try a bit harder to actually defend himself which he hasn't done yet, despite the claims against him. Pntballa is leaning green to me but it's difficult to tell, especially with the two inactives, it throws my game all off.

[mellonxcollie]

Originally Posted by pntballa18

I still thesunfan's "NO DON'T SEER ME" thing is sketchy as fuck and might be worth looking in to, but I'm not going to pursue him as a lynch target today.

I agree with this. It doesn't jive with my "T-Force and thesunfan are not both wolves" theory, but I do think that's sketchy and we shouldn't forget about it.

[thesunfan]

damn, this is going well
can we get a votecount?

[dAnceguy117]

unofficial votecount below.

-----

T-Force (4) - thesunfan, danceguy, Riotpolice, pntballa, mellonxcollie
mellonxcollie (2) - Xiz, danceguy
thesunfan (1) - T-Force
Riotpolice (0) - notdanceguy, T-Force
jwcgator (0) - danceguy

-----

T-Force is within lynching range (4 votes needed) and 2 votes from instalynch (6 votes to insta).

-----


at this point, I think we should wait for Tokzic and BDN to weigh in.

[pntballa18]

Agreed. Gonna put my vote on jwc for now just to be safe until everyone else has a chance to chime in. T-Force is still my top suspicion at this point, though.

[thesunfan]

Originally Posted by dAnceguy117

Riotpolice (0) - notdanceguy

notdanceguy lmao

[dAnceguy117]

OOPS I was marking silvery unvotes with "not" and left one in there lawl


pntballa what are your thoughts on the DragonIIDX lynch?

[pntballa18]

i'm glad the coin flip resulted in him dying instead of Xiz. Xiz was strapped into the electric chair and didn't do anything about it. If he was a wolf, there would've been nothing stopping him from claiming some blue role or another. He probably would've died anyways, but at least that way he (hypothetical wolf Xiz) would've helped his team out by getting a blue to reveal before he dies. I would rather the person who had pretty much shown that they're a green survive, over the person who could not be read one way or the other.

[dAnceguy117]

should it scare me that Raeko and pntballa are saying what I am thinking? or is this game pretty close to being solved? weeee shalllll seeeeeee



jwcgator is viewing the thread

hello jwcgator how's it going how's life who are the other wolves

[jwcgator]

Originally Posted by dAnceguy117

jwcgator is viewing the thread

hello jwcgator how's it going how's life who are the other wolves

Damn right I'm viewing the thread

[thesunfan]

why haven't you been posting and why haven't you asked for a replacement. Why didn't you vote last stage.
Feel welcome yet?

[jwcgator]

Hey guys. So I've been bad and not reading the thread (25+ pages since I last read ver daunting).

The only thing that really jumped out at me was the instant (relatively) three votes on BDN after he came out as aide by charu/xiz/sunfan. I liked that you guys lynched Charu just based on the way he was acting at the end. I've played a lot of epic mafia and usually when a wolf has the most votes at the end they tend to fight a LOT more than a human/green would and he really threw a fit lol.

I don't really have much else to say. I'll try not to let so much of the game pass me by like I did this past time. I know it's REALLY hard to get a read on someone when they've said next to nothing, and saying nothing is a really wobbly reason to suspect someone.

Hopefully BDN and Tokzic are actually who they say they are and not elaborate scheming wolves who took a bet on the aide and inspector being dead and winning (though I don't think that could have actually happened yet, mathematically and the enforcer would have likely said something by now)

Sorry my post isn't cool with a bunch of weird colored fonts and pictures and stuff but at least I'm here now

[jwcgator]

Originally Posted by thesunfan

why haven't you been posting and why haven't you asked for a replacement. Why didn't you vote last stage.
Feel welcome yet?

Yes

[jwcgator]

Originally Posted by dAnceguy117

reading through this thread is exhausting.

***
Yep.

[thesunfan]

I'm glad you guys feel better about the Charu lynch than I do. For once, I'm glad to be in the minority here haha.

[dAnceguy117]

jwc, I like that post, and I agree about Charu. I think it's sort of in his personality to act like that, but honestly, that behavior at 2 from insta is not role-neutral lol.

on BDN and Tokzic: like you said, all THREE of the aide-inspector-enforcer trio would have to be dead already for a long con to work. either a power role would need to have been lynched, or the trio would have to be Manti/YoshL/Kraut. wolves can't wolf-seer the aide so that would be a total crapshoot no matter what. honestly, I don't regard it as a possibility worth considering.