TWG 206: Betrayal at House on the Hill GAME THREAD

[Lights]

Well, seeing that MC also wants to vote is an interesting data point. At the very least this indicates that there are townies also interested in pursuing this likely ill-advised strategy and that Charu and Lar's insistence on a no-intel vote isn't a dead giveaway of guilt.

I'm back to having no good intel and thus no vote. My apologies Charu.

[Lights]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

Pretty much the same as Lar and Charu have said tbh.

A roleflip in the morning will give us a bit of information, we will know the identity of one dead townie. But if we also yeet someone today we will also have their flip, as well as who was willing to vote for them. Some (or all) of those voters will still be alive, and we can talk to them and get more information about why they voted how they did.

It's basically the best way for us to get useful information that can bring us further in the game. Even if we lose a townie short term, in the long term it will hopefully pay off

There's also always the chance that we just luck out and hit a wolf

Knowing someones role is inconsequential if we no longer have their voting power. voting townies directly wastes our voting power for a pot-shot at a hit. You guys talk like this role flip actually provides us actionable intel.

is it a wolf? nice we got lucky
is it a townie? darn, they were on our team... there goes 1 potential vote we could have used.

[Charu]

Would you mind explaining in your own words why having an extra player is beneficial?

Don't give me numbers, because having +1 extra actually doesn't change the number of *possible* phases this game can have

[Charu]

If anything, it adds an extra unknown data point wolves can make use of.

[Arp!]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Arp talk to me what's your take on current standings?

iunno who to trust anymore .w.

lights definitely has a point, but the werewolves are a ticking time bomb, and analyzing who voted for who is probably the best way to gain as much information as we can within a short time frame.

I hate it when I vote for someone and they turn out to be innocent, but it's probably the best option here

[Lights]

Originally Posted by Arp!

iunno who to trust anymore .w.

lights definitely has a point, but the werewolves are a ticking time bomb, and analyzing who voted for who is probably the best way to gain as much information as we can within a short time frame.

I hate it when I vote for someone and they turn out to be innocent, but it's probably the best option here

what intel is there to gain off of a random vote? if i vote with you guys on someone random based on a guess, it means i made the same guess you all did.

none of us know anything here, so our voting patterns amount to very little intel

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by Lights

Knowing someones role is inconsequential if we no longer have their voting power. voting townies directly wastes our voting power for a pot-shot at a hit. You guys talk like this role flip actually provides us actionable intel.

is it a wolf? nice we got lucky
is it a townie? darn, they were on our team... there goes 1 potential vote we could have used.

How long do you think we should wait then? Cause if we want to get a wolf, we have to vote at some point

[Arp!]

Originally Posted by Lights

what intel is there to gain off of a random vote? if i vote with you guys on someone random based on a guess, it means i made the same guess you all did.

none of us know anything here, so our voting patterns amount to very little intel

right, it's not a lot of intel; but the only other option is just letting the werewolves eat someone and gaining no intel at all. I think that's the point lar and the others are trying to make

[Lights]

Originally Posted by Charu

Would you mind explaining in your own words why having an extra player is beneficial?

Don't give me numbers, because having +1 extra actually doesn't change the number of *possible* phases this game can have

Certainly. I'm looking at this as percentages. if you have 10 players in a game and 2 of them are evil, you have a 20% chance of hitting wolf. they kill someone and you're down to 9 players remaining, now you have 22.2% chance. this increases as the townies die.

HOWEVER, to make a successful vote, there needs to be a sizeable concurrence amongst voters. given the wolves are usually not going to vote for themselves, that voting pool needs to be higher than the wolves. so the critical point would be when 5 players remain (3 townies, 2 wolves) or 3 players remain( 2 townies 1 wolf).

In the meantime, we have one source of consistent intel each night- the Seer. whom will reveal one role (the first tick of which did not result in a wolf being revealed). each time the seer can see a new players role, the more like this is to hit a wolf. so the more nights a seer has to potentially discover a wolf before we reach the critical point of 5 (or 3) players, the better our odds are.

Essentially, our best strategy is to stall and make the werewolves spend as many nights as possible to whittle our numbers while we either hope they make the first mistake in discussion or our seer is able to share actionable intel. The longer we keep as many townies as possible alive, the longer we have to gain intel that we can use once we get closer to that critical point.

If the Seer dies, this hurts the strategy considerably, but by this point our odds are better of actually hitting a wolf on a no-intel vote.

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by Lights

is it a wolf? nice we got lucky

If it's a wolf, then who voted? What was their reasoning? Who objected and what was their reasoning? Did they have good reasons to defend the dead wolf? Did they not defend but also kept undermining the push on other ways? We can go back and read what happen that EOD knowing the final result and that recontextualizes actions and stances.

QUOTE=Lights;4789462]
is it a townie? darn, they were on our team... there goes 1 potential vote we could have used.[/quote]

Same thing here: who made the initial push? Was there a believable reason? Any reason? Did someone else on the wagon quietly join without agreeing or providing reasons? Did they provide a reason and then forget what it was when asked d2, giving a different reason? Did the player we kill have any connection to the player who died in the night? Again, the info can recontextualize actions.

And we get even more after d2: sometimes the actions on d0's EOD become even clearer with more flips.

It's not a shot in the dark that will always just be what it seemed at the time

[Charu]

Originally Posted by Arp!

right, it's not a lot of intel; but the only other option is just letting the werewolves eat someone and gaining no intel at all. I think that's the point lar and the others are trying to make

Good man!

[MixMasterLar]

Broken tags yay

[Charu]

Originally Posted by Lights

Certainly. I'm looking at this as percentages. if you have 10 players in a game and 2 of them are evil, you have a 20% chance of hitting wolf. they kill someone and you're down to 9 players remaining, now you have 22.2% chance. this increases as the townies die.

HOWEVER, to make a successful vote, there needs to be a sizeable concurrence amongst voters. given the wolves are usually not going to vote for themselves, that voting pool needs to be higher than the wolves. so the critical point would be when 5 players remain (3 townies, 2 wolves) or 3 players remain( 2 townies 1 wolf).

In the meantime, we have one source of consistent intel each night- the Seer. whom will reveal one role (the first tick of which did not result in a wolf being revealed). each time the seer can see a new players role, the more like this is to hit a wolf. so the more nights a seer has to potentially discover a wolf before we reach the critical point of 5 (or 3) players, the better our odds are.

Essentially, our best strategy is to stall and make the werewolves spend as many nights as possible to whittle our numbers while we either hope they make the first mistake in discussion or our seer is able to share actionable intel. The longer we keep as many townies as possible alive, the longer we have to gain intel that we can use once we get closer to that critical point.

If the Seer dies, this hurts the strategy considerably, but by this point our odds are better of actually hitting a wolf on a no-intel vote.

What I'm getting our this.

Don't play the game............

[Lights]

Originally Posted by Charu

What I'm getting our this.

Don't play the game............

Why wouldn't we use the math to our advantage?

[Lights]

idk about you guys, but im not tryna let our town fall to the werewolves

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by Lights

Why wouldn't we use the math to our advantage?

There are two parts of TWG: math and arguing

I've found decent luck in my time playing completely ignoring the math part

The meat and bones and soul of the game is the arguing

[Charu]

Let's assume everyone just decided not to post at all. Have only the night actions go off.

You're suggesting every player should just not even *attempt* to solve the game and just let the Seer do checks until they get the necessary info.

Am I understanding this logic right?

[Lights]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

There are two parts of TWG: math and arguing

I've found decent luck in my time playing completely ignoring the math part

The meat and bones and soul of the game is the arguing

oh gosh... we're all gonna die ;-;

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

There are two parts of TWG: math and arguing

I've found decent luck in my time playing completely ignoring the math part

The meat and bones and soul of the game is the arguing

And arguing about concepts and theories is boring, the fun starts when you start arguing about why you did some specific action in the game and defending yourself!! Or burying a wolf!! Or being wrong and burying a town but at least you tried!!!

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by Lights

oh gosh... we're all gonna die ;-;

In theory, only three of us have to die if we get it correct right away