Turbo XVI: The Day After Tomorrow - Game Thread

[xXOpkillerXx]

Roundbox tracker no CC,
if he tracked wolf it's over,
if he tracked town it's 2 town clear vs 1 wolf

What am I missing ? It cant be that easy right

[xXOpkillerXx]

Originally Posted by sanzath

Actually I'm going to bed too

Closing thoughts, eod is basically set in stone at this point, unless someone CC's which seems super unlikely with 2 hours left

I'm clinging to the idea that roundbox is right for the wrong reasons and cel isn't the wolf partner

but tomorrow I'll consider the idea that he's right for the right reasons, since in in my d0 reread so far it really does look like Cel/Xel have 0 interactions

If Sanz CC, this is wat

Originally Posted by Celirra

I kinda think it makes sense for a wolf [talking about CK] to have hopped on the vote early to make it seem like they were down with it sooner and such, bussing is notoriously effective in ffr twg

I don't think Cel can possibly CC, I don't understand the reads if he does.

Originally Posted by inDheart

XelNya (3) - FreezinIce, Cold Kitten, XelNya

unvote - Celirra, roundbox
not voting - sanzath, xXOpkillerXx

Freezin bussing ? That'd mean Cel and Sanz couldn't hammer, fearing they'd get wolf read. Idk why yet I think this is less likely than Sanz wolf. (?)

[xXOpkillerXx]

Originally Posted by roundbox

huh no I had you pinged out as a wolf yesterday so I checked the person I thought was most likely your partner and found out they visited haku last night

Roundbox knows Xel wolf

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

You have my attention

xel

I can wait to vote op not like he's going anywhere or even attempting to dig himself out of the hole he's in

Spice this up

Freezin jumps on first vote so that it looks legit ?

[roundbox]

Cel is clear

[roundbox]

My money is on sanz last wolf
Freezin is the fallback

[Celirra]

Originally Posted by roundbox

Cel is clear

No I'm a wolf right

[xXOpkillerXx]

sanzath

Ayy boy where's your volume at ? "Sorry I was working" pffft not buying it

[roundbox]

celirra how much do you trust opkiller

[roundbox]

also whoever the last wolf is you've got some BALLS to kill CK with that much confidence

although I'm pretty sure she softed earlier with saying "you definitely don't want to lynch me"

[FreezinIce]

We're dealing with a madman if they thought killing ck was better than killing the confirmed town.

Mechanically the odds of victory are extremely high for town but don't get complacent

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

We're dealing with a madman if they thought killing ck was better than killing the confirmed town.

Mechanically the odds of victory are extremely high for town but don't get complacent

it was a gamble since it could have been a doc or a backup

[roundbox]

we're in better shape than you think since we have one confirmed town living into f3, guaranteed

unless we decide to lynch me or celirra today

[FreezinIce]

Town has 2 lynches out of a pool of 3 possible suspects. A blind 42% chance of victory if the lynch was rng'd both times. While this seems low it's actually MUCH higher than it has any right to be.

If roundbox was killed instead of 2 confirmed towns and 3 suspects, we would have 5 suspects.

Giving us a 23% chance of blind victory.

But enough about raw statistics, time to stratagize.

=====

Every suspect (me, sanz, opkiller) finds themselves in a faux delimma.

We have 2 lynches.

All the human suspects know that if they kill both the other suspects town will auto win. The wolf will pretend to believe this as well.

2 confirmed towns means if we miss today, a confirmed town makes it into f3 guarenteed, where they will decide the course of the game, both suspects being mechanically forced to vote each other.

Don't fuck it up.

===

Elaborating on my thoughts on ck kill.

I used a bit of strong hyperbole in my previous post

The kill wasn't garbage but it wasn't optimal.

The easy explanation for it is the wolf knows that of he takes the roundbox kill instead of ck, she gets promoted and wins the game if she isn't lynched or killed the next night.

The obvious problem with that is it was still mechanically incorrect to kill her before roundbox. Why?
Because if you knew she was the backup there should be no incentive to kill her first.

You'll end up with the same results, except with no confirmed town like you have today (cel)

[roundbox]

we could have gone for a BALLIN strategy and lynched someone that wasn't xelnya yesterday and instead looked for his most likely partner

yeah I wouldn't get a track result because xel would have just done the kill again to cover for the partner but if we hit the partner with the lynch it's a mechanical GG

I wanted to propose it but it's always in town's interest to go for confirmed wolves

a backup for my death would have been cool though in that situation

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by roundbox

it was a gamble since it could have been a doc or a backup

I'm retarded and keep forgetting the setup has a possible doctor. Lol.

The kill wasnt as bad as I thought

[FreezinIce]

I think sanz is last wolf atm.

[xXOpkillerXx]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

I think sanz is last wolf atm.

A wolf Freezin would vote me in this situation, right ?

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by xXOpkillerXx

A wolf Freezin would vote me in this situation, right ?

Wolf me, like regular me, would know you get triggered by anyone being suspicious of you which makes you easy to manipulate.

So uhhh, yeah.

Wolf me totally would have voted you. Yep.

[xXOpkillerXx]

Unless you think it'd be easier to convince roundbox that I'm wolf and not you, I dont see wht else you'd thinm sanz is wolf.

So yeah I'm satisfied with this

[xXOpkillerXx]

Yeah makes sense (even though I hate to admit it xD)