[Concluded] The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

[foxfire667]

The singular chance of winning is always 50%, but the chance of winning (or losing) a certain amount of times will always be smaller than the singular chance. The chance of winning a set number of times in this case will always be 1/2^n, where n is the number of win or loss times.

Though this is hardly just talk however, take a look at my credit winnings from the gambling hall (keep in mind that these are hundreds upon hundreds of bets, not just a few, and that a lot of it came from the past couple days after changing my baseline to 1k instead of 50 credits):

[Funnygurl555]

this thread made me start using the gambling hall

[j-rodd123]

gambling is fun and i encourage it

[MarcusHawkins]

Originally Posted by foxfire667

The singular chance of winning is always 50%, but the chance of winning (or losing) a certain amount of times will always be smaller than the singular chance. The chance of winning a set number of times in this case will always be 1/2^n, where n is the number of win or loss times.

Though this is hardly just talk however, take a look at my credit winnings from the gambling hall (keep in mind that these are hundreds upon hundreds of bets, not just a few, and that a lot of it came from the past couple days after changing my baseline to 1k instead of 50 credits):

What's your Best Win Streak, and your Worst Lose Streak?

[tosh]

Originally Posted by foxfire667

Though this is hardly just talk however, take a look at my credit winnings from the gambling hall (keep in mind that these are hundreds upon hundreds of bets, not just a few, and that a lot of it came from the past couple days after changing my baseline to 1k instead of 50 credits):

I used a similar system to you and lost quite a bit. You have to remember that someone loses a credit for each credit that you win. So while you're up 300k, that means that the rest of FFR collectively is down 300k from those particular bets.


I routinely had 6-7 bet losing streaks. That and combined with the fact that I was 0/13 on bets 100k and higher helps contribute to that net loss.

Your system is a good way to realize short-term gains, but over the long-term it will even out to zero.

[rushyrulz]

FFR eats 2% of whatever goes through the gambling hall, so someone loses a credit for each .98 credit that you win.

That's how we pay server costs.

[benny58624]

Originally Posted by foxfire667

The singular chance of winning is always 50%, but the chance of winning (or losing) a certain amount of times will always be smaller than the singular chance. The chance of winning a set number of times in this case will always be 1/2^n, where n is the number of win or loss times.

This is true. The chance that your next 5 bets will be a win streak is 1/32. But i'm talking about conditional probabilitys: what is the chance you will win if you are already on a 4 win streak? The answer is 1/2.

[foxfire667]

Originally Posted by MarcusHawkins

What's your Best Win Streak, and your Worst Lose Streak?

Best win streak: 9
Worst lose streak: 9

Also yeah if you take a larger risk you can crash and burn real hard. It's not a perfect method, it's just one that generally works quite well.

EDIT: Over the past few minutes I've taken several more bets...
Credits Won: 618498
Credits Lost: 306450

Noticing a trend?

[MarcusHawkins]

If you have the credits, and use the win streaks to your advantage though, I think that profits are almost a guarantee!! (9 is a good number to look at imo)

[foxfire667]

Originally Posted by MarcusHawkins

If you have the credits, and use the win streaks to your advantage though, I think that profits are almost a guarantee!! (9 is a good number to look at imo)

How exactly would I use a winning streak to my advantage though? There's no way I could know exactly how many times I am going to win. All I know is that as I win more, the chance of winning a set of n+1 is 1/2^n+1, which doesn't seem appealing to me.

[Riotpolice]

Hah, you guys using the gambling hall like it's gonna GET you credits. :P


I learned the necessary hard way to stay away from that shit when I lost 800,000 of my hard earned credits. rip.

[MarcusHawkins]

Here's the trend I see. The Win-Lose situation will go by win, lose, win, lose, when someone wagers/accepts.

Basically, you click wager, then someone accepts.
Obviously that's win, then lose.
So, the next person who wagers wins, and the next person accepts loses.
Then, if you wager before someone else, you win, and if you wager after someone else, you lose. (It's the opposite if someone accepts the other person's wager, then yours)

So basically it's...
Click wager/accept - Win
Click wager/accept - Lose
Click wager/accept - Win
Click wager/accept - Lose
Click wager/accept - Win
Click wager/accept - Lose
.
.
.

Of course, this goes by everyone's point of view combined, no just one person'ts point of view. (I hope this makes sense)

This, of course, can go vise versa too depending on the situation.

[psychoangel691]

Whoever took the 500k lost it cause that was my bet unless there was another one in there at some point

[psychoangel691]

Put more up, have fun

someone got my 25k I see


and my 50k

[rushyrulz]

oh
Bet Amount When Result
50,000 36 seconds ago Lost
100,000 32 seconds ago Lost
500,000 24 seconds ago Lost
250,000 28 seconds ago Lost

[j-rodd123]

rushy skyrocketing up the top 10 lost leaderboard

[MarcusHawkins]

Originally Posted by rushyrulz

oh
Bet Amount When Result
50,000 36 seconds ago Lost
100,000 32 seconds ago Lost
500,000 24 seconds ago Lost
250,000 28 seconds ago Lost

I guess in between these amounts, someone won credits when taken?

[psychoangel691]

Ouch

[MarcusHawkins]

Originally Posted by psychoangel691

Ouch

Does you History of Wagers PLaced say Won Lost Won Lost Won Lost... in that order?

[foxfire667]

Originally Posted by rushyrulz

oh
Bet Amount When Result
50,000 36 seconds ago Lost
100,000 32 seconds ago Lost
500,000 24 seconds ago Lost
250,000 28 seconds ago Lost

Wow that sucks, though that 50k start risk factor...