TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

[emerald000]

If we could get two other votes for AC before day ends, that could save us a couple of phantoms.

[Viccica]

I don't want an insta. I think afro is a way more likely suspect. Despite that log with ac. Maybe I'm just missing something, but I don't see anything condemning enough for an insta....

fiction for the safety. I don't want to take part in this one. =p

[Panda Express]

Something I didn't think about, if seer finds red and green, then to be safe I think the Seer needs to wait a third night. Red-green could possibly be wolf-MasterWolf, so they need a 3rd seer target to just revert back to the plan I stated above.


I think the seer needs to find a mini-alliance here, but not look to expand.


Hope I'm not coming in as too strong for still being within my first 10 posts :P

[Viccica]

Well.... To avoid people who haven't voted yet getting phantoms I guess I have no choice....



ac for the insta... =/ Even if I'm not too sure I like it.

[Viccica]

Hookers need to be active and whatnot. >

[Makilaz]

Insta has been reached, update will happen when I'm at a comp again. 30 mins tops is my estimate.

[Panda Express]

Changing my vote, we can't afford phantoms this early on. VOting AC, sorry Bro =\

[Makilaz]

Day over! AC1speakerbox was insta'd.

Night 2 begins now, ending in 24 hours. That's 1 PM EST 10/17/09 (SAT)

1. Gun92 (james92hofmann)
2. Ac1Speakerbox (Ac1Colossus)
3. Clarinet89 (clarinet898)
4. Afrobean (Afrobean16)
5. DarkManticoreX2 (DarkManticoreX2)
6. FictionJunction (FikshonJunkshon)
7. Syhto (amanetora)
8. A2P (awesome lamer)
9. Ruritsu (Ruritsu)
10. u84 (u8477)
11. sc979 (sam97379)
12. Viccica (mmviccica)
13. emerald000 (emerald3x0)
14. Bolth mannn (bolthmannn)
15. Sullyman2007 (sully5313)
16. BDN (megamngtx)

[Syhto]

hopefully this insta lynching in order to prevent phantoms wont become a trend

[DarkManticoreX2]

Insta was reached with Panda's vote.

Originally Posted by Afrobean

I don't see any advantage that is worth the risk. Can you explain to me why the seer and psychic getting together is such a good and necessary thing? Even assuming one subtracted from the seering pool, is there anything else that warrants putting both of our blues at risk?

There is a 9% risk that the seer come out to the master wolf. 9% it's not even close to 50% or even 25%. I would feel much better knowing the seer and psychic are alive, especially after BDN got killed night 1. It's advantageous, because it forces the wolves to wolf the human that comes out in the thread to stop the "potential" alliance from getting too big for them to handle. As a tradeoff, we get a night were the seer isn't the target of a wolf kill, and the blues get together. If somehow the MW gets really lucky and is hit by the first seering, the two blues can take him down. Yes its the worst scenario possible, but it still nets a wolf. The psychic is about useless anyway once the MW is dead. It's not that helpful to know wolves after they're dead.

Originally Posted by Afrobean

Except that the seer has to come out and endanger himself to reduce the pool by one. Is it worth it? At least in a "normal" game, the threat of guardian would cause the MW to act exactly as a human would in your example, but if the MW they could take out both of our blues within 2 days.

The MW has to act like a human for the day the seer comes out to him. It's after that you have to worry about, and like i said above, we are talking about a worst case scenario.

Originally Posted by Afrobean

And yes, the other blue could then immediately call the seer'd person on it (assuming the blue wolfed WOULDN'T otherwise be killed... hard to say given first night choice of BDN), but then we'd be trading our two blues for one red. Do you think that's a good trade? I'd be willing to trade one blue for one red, but in this sort of game, I don't think we should risk giving up both of them just to get one red.

This is why it would be good to know what assets we have. If the seer is dead we're in for a tough long haul. if the psychic is dead, we're not at that much of a loss, and the game is plenty doable still. I don't like trading two blues for one red, But i really really really would like someone else to have the same info as the seer. If the seer dies without talking to anyone, we loose all the seered greens, and whatever red he is possibly sitting on. I would be more then willing to risk a 9% chance of sacrificing the blues to get someone else with all the seers info so it can't all be lost in one night.

Originally Posted by Afrobean

Also: the seer'd party could be MW and STILL act as a normal human would. Help establish the alliance and get themselves a nice seat of power behind the two blues. From there, the seer'd person could offer themselves as a front to reach out and establish more members of the alliance (under the premise that he would claim himself as the seer, and if he talks to the MW, he'd be wolfed instead of the seer). They could even help the seer identify and kill the wolves for real ("hey, seer, you should look at X, I think he is a wolf" then when it turns up red be like "yeah we got one!"). Then when it inevitably gets to endgame with both blues wolfed already and it comes down to MW, one seer'd green, and one non-seer'd player, the alliance members would team up to take down the "last wolf".

If that player doesn't get wolved 1 or 2 nights after he comes out i wouldn't count him/her as a given green anymore. Hell I'd be damn suspicious of him if he isn't immediately killed. The green is the seer's opening to the thread. The wolves have a very good reaon to kill him.

Originally Posted by Afrobean

Why would the seer come out to a seer'd green? What advantage does this give anyone? It risks his existence without good reason. I think your brain has been addled by games which rely on alliances. This game is designed in a way to PREVENT them. I think it's foolish of you to suggest we should attempt to rely on them in spite of the prevention in place.

I mean, in a NORMAL "no guardian" game, there wouldn't be a MW. Seering results would be 100% verification. The seer would still be able to build a hidden pooled alliance, so long as the greens trust the seer (i.e., a wolf could potentially fake and collect themselves another pool of trusted followers). But in this game, the only seering result that's truly accurate is red and blue. Nothing else should necessarily be trusted at face value.

This game is designed to make it difficult to establish one, not impossible. Alliances win games. PERIOD. Knowing what humans have been cleared and what humans haven't is a very good way to out every wolf but the MW. It sounds like you don't want any sharing of info if there's a little risk involved with it. It might be more fun for you, but it's detrimental to the game as a whole.

Originally Posted by Afrobean

Please explain to me why you believe this. Is it just because you've never played a game where the seer had little advantage to doing so? Is it because you're just so used to there being a huge advantage to the seer coming out in one way or another? Is it just because you want to sacrifice your MW in exchange for removing the seer from play before they take a look at you or your partners?

The seer i not going to come out in the thread unless he absolutely has to. the day he comes out in the thread, he will immediately be killed the following night. So yes, I believe he has to come out to someone at some point to preserve his life

Originally Posted by Afrobean

And you're also ignoring the point that in a game where the seer can't PUBLICLY come out, there is realistic chance of wolf faking seer privately. If someone came to me and said "I'm the seer and I seer'd you last night", I wouldn't trust them. I wouldn't out them since odds are good they'd be legit, but I certainly wouldn't trust them completely like I would in a PUBLIC coming out.

If that happened and you came out to the thread with info, the real seer would likely contact you to stop the bs seering, and you'd have to trade seer for fake seer.

Originally Posted by Afrobean

I would say this should only happen if the seer nails two or more wolves. If they only hit one, they should do their best to point out the wolfy things that person does and get them lynched, but they shouldn't expose themselves (unless they feel like their life is worth the one wolf's life). But if they get two or more, they could absolutely trade their life for those two wolves I think.

If an alliance of some sort does get set up, the seer doesn't need to hold the name of the first wolf till he finds a second, he can just have a human come out with the first one.

Originally Posted by Afrobean

If I was the seer, I'd probably just publicly announce myself to PROVE WHO I AM. I'd be killing myself, but I'd also be essentially confirmed that I was telling the truth and we'd be able to knock out 2 wolves right away.

And we'll have two MW's running around great.

Originally Posted by Afrobean

But apart from that, the first night's seering does appear to have the highest likelihood of being human, so LATER IN THE GAME, that could be the person the seer comes out to (or if they've been wolfed or whatever, night 2, etc.). But again, I'd say it's better for the seer to wait until they have something worth dying for, then publicly reveal themselves to confirm the info they're giving is legit so that everyone will trust them.

Obligiatory, Later in the game that person could be dead.

Originally Posted by Afrobean

I know I probably wouldn't trust someone with seering information enough to lynch based solely on that unless they publicly reveal themselves.

15/16 people disagree

Originally Posted by Afrobean

But ****... even a wolf could fake a seer'd list of reds late in the game and then wolf themselves to make it appear legit. I guess they probably wouldn't risk it since the seer would probably still be alive though, eh?

The later it gets in the game, the less i am inclined to believe when some random seer comes out. Too much possibility of a wolf taking a shot at winning the game.

Originally Posted by Afrobean

What is there to gain for the humans if the seer risks himself like that? Where is the ADVANTAGE? You're talking in givens without justifications. WHY should the seer HAVE TO come out? WHAT does he have to gain other than revealing if he catches a red?

He gains an underground alliance with the psychic, and at least someone knows what assets we have that are alive.

Originally Posted by Afrobean

And like I said, I won't trust a report of a seered red unless it's reported publicly (although a seer'd green could fill this role if the seer feels it's worth the risk of his life to get this wolf dead) and no one contends it. As it gets later into the game, I'm less likely to even accept that as the seer could be killed and a crafty wolf could play a fake out.

Haha i posted this too before reading your post completely

Originally Posted by Afrobean

All in all, it's up to the seer to decide. If he feels the risk is worth the benefit when he hasn't even yet caught a red, that's up to him. I'm just trying to persuade him away from giving himself away to the MW before he is even able to do anything useful for the team.

The longer the seer goes without contacting someone, the better the chance is that he's dead.

Originally Posted by Afrobean

I just don't get you people. You're so entrenched in alliance-based play that you can't wrap your minds around a game which is PURPOSELY DESIGNED to make them NOT FUNCTIONALLY USEFUL. This simple design makes it impossible to go with the typical pick-'em-off-one-by-one design that EVERY OTHER GAME EVER works on. Why are you so wishful that a team of blues will win the game for you even in this sort of game that is supposed to be green-driven, discussion-driven, based on logic and deduction?

It's not that we want blues to win the game, it's that we want to keep useful, human beneficial information alive. If the seer gets offed randomly we loose that information and can't get it back. besides the chance of the seer getting hit tonight by random luck is 10% if we haven't killed a wolf, and 9% if we have.

OH **** LOOK AT THAT ITS THE SAME RISK PERCENTAGE IF HE CAME OUT TO A SEERED GREEN

[FictionJunction]

I'm not a fan of long segmented posts. It seems you guys just like sounding and looking smart instead of being it.

ANYWAY, I'll just assume manti's post is a tl;dr version of what I said before.

[DarkManticoreX2]

If you're going to tl:dr it, read the first and last segmentations at the very least

[FictionJunction]

like, **** your percentages. If the seer seered a green player he should have enough of a brain to try and figure out whether or not the player is the MW. If everything points towards the player being human and there's a chance of imminent death then he should give whatever info he has to this player. Even if it's just green seer results.

why are we having this discussion.

[FictionJunction]

the seer isn't only there to give us red results. The seer isn't a martyr. Red results aren't guaranteed. He has to do something with whatever results he gets.

[FictionJunction]

I HATE THIS GAME. FictionJunction

[Panda Express]

Well seeing as we all seem to agree that coming out after a night 1 seering, regardless of the result, is out of the question, this is all going to come down to a waiting game with the seer. Besides that, back to trying to eek out information out of each other.

Zzz ...

[Ruritsu]

Um, I have a terribly dumb question to ask, considering how long I've played. However, when does the psychic get his/her reading, end of day or end of night?

[Gun92]

I think your sig is incorrect Ruritsu...just saying. I think you mean to say Too not to.

[Makilaz]

Originally Posted by Ruritsu

Um, I have a terribly dumb question to ask, considering how long I've played. However, when does the psychic get his/her reading, end of day or end of night?

End of night/beginning of day.

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by DarkManticoreX2

There is a 9% risk that the seer come out to the master wolf. 9% it's not even close to 50% or even 25%. I would feel much better knowing the seer and psychic are alive, especially after BDN got killed night 1. It's advantageous, because it forces the wolves to wolf the human that comes out in the thread to stop the "potential" alliance from getting too big for them to handle.

No, it doesn't. Like I pointed out, the wolves could just leave that human alive and we could probably lynch him. But on the reverse psych angle, a MW could play that card as a defense for why they haven't been wolfed (assuming the green the seer came out to is publicly identified... why would the person the seer came out to reveal themselves publicly if a red hadn't yet been caught? And due to this, why would the seer bother to risk themselves by revealing themselves to a potential MW who may not even be alive if/when the seer has anything worth revealing?).

As a tradeoff, we get a night were the seer isn't the target of a wolf kill

In a game where the seer isn't identified, he is NEVER the target. Getting him would be a lucky shot in the dark. The wolves might be HOPING to get him, but they're not aiming.

I mean, technically, they COULD use logic to deduce who is NOT the seer, but I don't think most in the game have the brain power to figure that out. People in this game apparently don't even have the brain power to figure out how to catch wolves without a seer.

and the blues get together.

Still, no one has explained to me what is so advantageous about this. The only advantage I see is that the psychic could pair his vote with the seer's if they catch a red, but is one additional vote on the stack worth the risk? A good player should be able to motivate the group to get behind his vision without saying "I seer'd this person".

If somehow the MW gets really lucky and is hit by the first seering, the two blues can take him down.

Not necessarily. What if the psychic and seer are both relatively likely to die from wolfing? What if the green is legitimately green, but the seer dies the next night anyway? What if the wolves DON'T attack a public seer'd human?

If I was a wolf, I wouldn't attack them. I'd wait for the idiot masses to lynch him.

Yes its the worst scenario possible, but it still nets a wolf.

Again, not necessarily.

The psychic is about useless anyway once the MW is dead.

I repeat, I consider card flips more useful info than a bunch of people who are "green" but might be MW.

It's not that helpful to know wolves after they're dead.

And you have a reputation for being good at this game???

This is why it would be good to know what assets we have.

Only a wolf wants to "know what assets we have" to know if they can let their guard down. Humans should trust that the blues are alive and going behind the scenes, silently pushing the rest of us in the direction their limited knowledge indicates is right.

If the seer is dead we're in for a tough long haul.

Shouldn't be too bad, but why would you say that? You think the chance that BDN or (lol) Ac1 was the seer is that great? Don't worry about it. Just trust that the seer is alive and working. What's far more likely is that, like me, they don't think it's worth risking themselves for such minimal gain (especially when the primary component of that "gain" seems to be to just give you piece of mind).

if the psychic is dead, we're not at that much of a loss, and the game is plenty doable still.

The game is "plenty doable" in either scenario. You're just too reliant on the seer killing your wolves for you.

I don't like trading two blues for one red, But i really really really would like someone else to have the same info as the seer.

The only info worth passing on is if the seer actually catches a red. I've conceded that it makes much more sense for the seer to risk himself in that situation (even though I personally wouldn't do it unless I got two reds).

If the seer dies without talking to anyone, we loose all the seered greens, and whatever red he is possibly sitting on.

Seer'd greens are more a hinderence than an advantage. If the MW gets seer'd, he'd be able to float through the end of the game because no one would choose to lynch him over a non-seer'd person. This is why seer information should be more tightlipped. If it comes down to the end of the game and all we have is a pool of seer'd greens and a few wolves, the seer'd greens shoudn't be given a free pass, but knowing the fools who'd be left alive at that point, they would be.

I would be more then willing to risk a 9% chance of sacrificing the blues to get someone else with all the seers info so it can't all be lost in one night.

There is no information worth passing on so early in the game. And if the seer DID have useful information to pass on (a red), he'd have no one yet to tell it.

If that player doesn't get wolved 1 or 2 nights after he comes out i wouldn't count him/her as a given green anymore. Hell I'd be damn suspicious of him if he isn't immediately killed. The green is the seer's opening to the thread. The wolves have a very good reaon to kill him.

No... BECAUSE you wouldn't trust him, the wolves have every reason to keep him alive. Think about this from a wolf perspective. Human comes out and says "I was seer'd, psychic come to me by day's end so I can get you in touch with the seer," the damage is already done. Assuming he's legit and assuming the psychic goes along for it, killing this green won't stop the two blues from getting together. So why bother wasting a wolf attack on him? Let him live and clueless humans will decide to lynch him. There's literally no advantage to the wolves to kill a human like that right away.

The seer i not going to come out in the thread unless he absolutely has to. the day he comes out in the thread, he will immediately be killed the following night.

Not necessarily. Could be a seer'd green playing seer in the thread and the wolves could kill a green, thinking the seer is dead.

Or the wolves could let him live and play on our fears of him lying to try to get us to lynch him. After all, if the reds know who the seer is, they should want him dead. But in addition, the wolves may not even trust the "seer's" word if he comes out in the thread-- they'd probably just guess he was a seer'd green faking seer to protect the real one.

If that happened and you came out to the thread with info, the real seer would likely contact you to stop the bs seering, and you'd have to trade seer for fake seer.

And what if a red plays fake seer? You'd have two persons who claim seer who have equal credibility both claiming the role. Should we just lynch both if this happens to ensure we actually get our trade-off of one red for one blue?

If an alliance of some sort does get set up, the seer doesn't need to hold the name of the first wolf till he finds a second, he can just have a human come out with the first one.

Or he could play as a good green and get the person lynched without revealing he'd been seer'd as red. Look at yesterday... all it took was one weak-ass accusation from me to snowball into a lynch on ac1.

And we'll have two MW's running around great.

You have a really skewed perception of this game and how it is supposed to work. The game isn't supposed to be "hey look seer find wolves, pick 'em off one-by-one", it's supposed to be a game of social engineering, of logic, of deduction.

Again, I repeat. The game is supposed to be about social engineering, not one role playing the game for their team.

Read this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mafia_(party_game)

In a true setting, there would be no private discussion. There would be no seer coming out. There would be no alliance. That's how it's SUPPOSED to be.

Obligiatory, Later in the game that person could be dead.

Then they'd go to their secondary resource.

And if that person was going to die later in the game, THEY WOULDN'T BE ANY GOOD AT HELPING THE SEER'S INFORMATION STAY ALIVE, WOULD THEY?

15/16 people disagree

God damn, if I was a wolf, I'd steamroll over the lot of you.

Afrobean16 (3:44:12): Hi, I'm the seer, I seer'd afro, manti, and fiction and they're all wolves go lynch them now please.
james92hofmann (3:45:02): ok brb making a post saying the seer came to me with reds who need to be lycnhed

The later it gets in the game, the less i am inclined to believe when some random seer comes out. Too much possibility of a wolf taking a shot at winning the game.

But a wolf couldn't try to fake it early in the game??

If I was a wolf, that's exactly the sort of thing I'd be thinking about. Building a hidden "alliance" by "seering" a bunch of greens. Would be fun as hell.

He gains an underground alliance with the psychic, and at least someone knows what assets we have that are alive.

No one needs to know what "assets" we have alive. Greens just need to trust that the seer and psychic are doing their thing behind the scenes.

The longer the seer goes without contacting someone, the better the chance is that he's dead.

If that person is dead at that point, then that person wasn't going to be useful to keeping information alive in the first place.

It's not that we want blues to win the game, it's that we want to keep useful, human beneficial information alive.

And I conceded that if a seer catches a red, he would be perfectly justified to risk himself if he so chooses. But you're advocating risking himself not to catch reds, but to GET IN TOUCH WITH THE PSYCHIC or to "keep his info alive". The only info worth keeping alive is reports of reds, so that is why the seer is justified in risking himself in that case.

If the seer gets offed randomly we loose that information and can't get it back.

A list of "greens" that easily has the MW among them is not a useful list to have come endgame. It's better for that information to be "loosed".

besides the chance of the seer getting hit tonight by random luck is 10% if we haven't killed a wolf, and 9% if we have.

Yeah... the seer's life is already risked just by the nature of the game, which is why I don't understand you thinking he should want to take additional risk on top of that when he doesn't have anything to gain from doing so at this time.

ps next time someone suggests hosting a game that will be green-driven, can we either eliminate blues completely (and adjust wolf numbers) or make it against the rules to reveal your role or information you got from the host because of your role? From a technical standpoint saying "I'm the seer" is already against the rules, because it's talking about something which is supposed to be kept private between player and host, same for seer/psychic reports. Allowing discussion of that nature allowed gameplay to shift from the original focus of social engineering and veer into some place where players see blues as the primary reason humans can win rather than wits and discussion.