jTWiG LXII - RPS

[Viccica]

Multiple things to point out since my last influx of posts;

One; I almost always flood the thread when I'm posting something of substance because I'm a person that has a lot of afterthoughts. It's nothing to do with nerves, I had no reason to be nervous. Saying I'm losing sleep over TWG is reaching at best, I'm sure I'm not the only one with a sporadic sleep schedule and I happened to be up at that time and viewing the thread.

Two; Voting for someone that is UTR is even more impotent than in another game because with all the candidates for a winning team, you don't inherently increase your odds of winning as much as just increasing their odds of losing. Not really the same thing in this game so I'd suggest sticking to votes that hold some type of substance.

[DarkManticoreX2]

Fiction will be an hour or so late updating the thread. The more you know!

[FictionJunction]

hi

[FictionJunction]

ok, n2 is over.

little bear is dead.

you have 72 hours. Monday 8pm EST

insta is at 5.

[dAnceguy117]

Let's see... That's two nighttime kills in two nights. A number of different possible scenarios exist, in terms of those two kills.



If the two nighttime kills targeted two different teams:
- Two teams would know they attacked successfully exactly once.
- The third team would know that they were a victim of exactly one of the two nighttime kills.

If the two nighttime kills targeted the same one team:
- The team with one member left would know that they were hit by both.
- The team with three members left and two successful attacks would know they had been successful.
- The team with three members left and no successful attacks would know they had not been successful and that they had not been successfully targeted.

The only possible exception to the above scenarios would be if two teams targeted the same player during the same night. One team's supposed knowledge would actually be flawed.



Conclusion:
In all likelihood, all three "teams" (rock, paper, scissors) are aware of the night kill distribution among the teams.

Exercise caution, everyone.

[Krauthammer]

I'll just remind all of you this, as an hypothetical thing.

If Fiction, member from the Scissors team, targeted Manticore, member of the Paper team, but Manticore was guarded, we don't get notified of the attempt to kill Manticore.

Keep that in mind. It is possible some teams will hit the right player but won't know.

As I see it, it is possible that the Little Bear kill was the product from a seering in Night 1. After all it is an odd kill.

Things aren't what they seem at first glance, people.

[dAnceguy117]

Approaching 48 hours left in Day 2.

Voting guide:
zzzzz

[dAnceguy117]

Originally Posted by Krauthammer

As I see it, it is possible that the Little Bear kill was the product from a seering in Night 1. After all it is an odd kill.

Good point. That jogged my brain a bit.

Senip appears to have lied to V about being green. What could his motives have been? Well, if V had been able to form a green alliance, Senip would have been essentially immune to being lynched; the presumed greens would not vote for each other. That same protection would be given to him in each day phase, as long as he managed to stay in the alliance.

Anyone on Senip's team could have tried to contact V and pull this strategy off. However, the most sound strategy for his team would be to have the most valuable teammate sneak into the alliance. What's the most valuable role to a team: guardian, seer, or vigilante? I think they would choose the vigilante, especially if they had seered Little Bear during Night 1.

I voted Senip in Day 1, and I'll continue to do so now. I think Senip has been lying through his teeth the entire game, and I believe he's a serious threat to everybody in the game who is not on his team.

Senip

[Krauthammer]

If Senip was going to be in the alliance to not to be lynched, then why Senip ended lynching Vendetta, the one making the alliance?

That is basically ruining the protection Senip would receive from being in the alliance. And Senip is smart enough to know that.

[Gun92]

Originally Posted by Krauthammer

If Senip was going to be in the alliance to not to be lynched, then why Senip ended lynching Vendetta, the one making the alliance?

That is basically ruining the protection Senip would receive from being in the alliance. And Senip is smart enough to know that.

Weren't you on board with V and then choose to vote for him as well?

[dAnceguy117]

Originally Posted by Krauthammer

If Senip was going to be in the alliance to not to be lynched, then why Senip ended lynching Vendetta, the one making the alliance?

That is basically ruining the protection Senip would receive from being in the alliance. And Senip is smart enough to know that.

Simple: V sniffed him out. Senip couldn't stop the alliance from voting Viccica, who could have been guarding him the following night. He had to bring the whole thing down.

I'm operating under the assumption that you considered V to be too dangerous, if he ended up not being green. I believe Senip had an ulterior motive.

[Krauthammer]

Welcome to the wonderful world of Krauthammer, Gun! Take note of this: I was wary of Vendetta since he claimed, and there are two players that know it. I never fully trusted him.

But yeah, I voted Viccicca, but she knows something about that.

[Krauthammer]

Originally Posted by dAnceguy117

Simple: V sniffed him out. Senip couldn't stop the alliance from voting Viccica, who could have been guarding him the following night. He had to bring the whole thing down.

I'm operating under the assumption that you considered V to be too dangerous, if he ended up not being green. I believe Senip had an ulterior motive.

Message from Vendetta:

i'm beginning to believe you might be the confederate who informed viccica. why aren't you voting for her?

what's this bullshit about activity? we are in a game of power players and negotiations what is your logic here?

what are you accomplishing for the green team by taking this tack?

your actions don't make sense, furthermore, trying to direct all inquiries to the green team to yourself reeks of desperation. senip has given rationale for his behavoir, but you seem oppourtunistic. additionally, a third green has emerged, so it's looking like you are on a team with viccica, who will die today regardless of your pathetic and obvious wavering.

I present you evidence showing that Vendetta wasn't that wary of Senip.

He was wary of me. I started suspecting that he wasn't Green, and started taking the matters on my hands.

I tried to direct any other Green claims to me, but unluckily it claimed to Vendetta. Later when I was more confident of my supposition, I went around and talked with the rest of the players who voted for Vendetta, except Viccicca.

Senip had the ulterior motive of actually being Green. And seeing how Vendetta was the most likely not to be Green, Senip voted along with me and the rest. We had talked about that much earlier before it happened.

Vendetta was a threat not only for the Greens, but for everybody. If one let him have the control of the Greens then whatever team he was part of would eliminate every threat.

After all...his reasons to vote Viccicca was that she was a threat to show resistance to the supposed plans he had and could make with us. He was already planning ahead by killing those who was experienced.

[j-rodd123]

pokelda where you at? seriously lol..........

[dAnceguy117]

Originally Posted by Krauthammer

Message from Vendetta:

This PM looks entirely legitimate. The end of Day 1 no longer seems like it came out of left field. One question: why did you wait until now to post this message?

Originally Posted by Krauthammer

Senip had the ulterior motive of actually being Green. And seeing how Vendetta was the most likely not to be Green, Senip voted along with me and the rest. We had talked about that much earlier before it happened.

I suppose so. A number of hours have passed since your post, and no counterclaims have arisen. I will have to give Senip's claim credence. My mistake, Senip.

Originally Posted by j-rodd123

pokelda where you at? seriously lol..........

Right, if I remember correctly, pokelda has made a total of 2 posts in the thread. I'm not sure if "putting pressure" on an inactive player is a valid justification for a vote, though.

[dAnceguy117]

Safety on Gun92.

[Krauthammer]

Originally Posted by dAnceguy117

One question: why did you wait until now to post this message?

Was it necessary until now? I think it wasn't, as I thought that what I had said before was enough. But it wasn't, so...

-------------------------------------

Either way, I think I shall say this to everybody: Go on with your missions! We Greens will be doing that too. If our paths cross, then let it be. We're only going to vote a player who we think is a Vigi. You aren't obligated to vote with us in any way.

Just remember: more than one team can win at the end, if the circumstances allow it. So don't be afraid about us.

[dAnceguy117]

Not many Day 2 posts so far. Kinda looks like Kraut and I are playing by ourselves, haha. I think the posting trends are understandable, though. With different people after different objectives, instalynches are unlikely; waiting until closer to the end of the phase would often be more effective than making moves early. I'll do my best to be available on AIM during the late afternoon tomorrow.

Originally Posted by Krauthammer

Was it necessary until now? I think it wasn't, as I thought that what I had said before was enough. But it wasn't, so...

What you've said during Day 2 has clarified many details. I was just wondering why you didn't post V's message during Day 1. Until your vote against V, you hadn't mentioned any doubts about him. What made you decide that garnering voters via AIM was the proper tactic, rather than posting the information at your disposal?

[Gun92]

I think it's funny that when v was coming out as a green, people wanted to kill him for it or at least for trying to formulate an alliance. Kraut was with him in the beginning from what I could tell, but then changed his vote when v wanted to kill off vicca. My question is this. If we didn't see v being green as an asset to any of the factions, why are we entertaining the notion of kraut being a green? If you didn't want to keep the most vocal and one of the strongest players alive, why keep him alive? The greens win when we loose all of our vigis. I think it's time we removed a problem from our plates so we can worry about the bigger thing which is each other. I forget who said it, but I'm fairly certain that someone said there was no point in coming out to the thread as a green. So why kraut should we keep you alive? Quite frankly, you are now more a detriment to us alive than if we all band together to kill you.

[yo man im awesome]

my birthday is coming up next week, and my sister and I are going into Manhattan tomorrow to go ice-skating/adventuring and such, so i won't be here at all tomorrow. I'm going to put my vote onto Danceguy. As much as I love talking to you, I have this feeling you're on the team that's hunting mine. Sorry <3