TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

[Charu]

God damn it Cubone.

[Charu]

Wait a minute, no one died?

[Xiz]

I mixed up PM's. That was completely my fault. I mixed up peoples roles and who is what. No death tonight.

[James May]

From my last post before the phase ended in the dot:
TPS

[j-rodd123]

wow nice one fictions mom, anyways im going to bed I have a LOT to say tomorrow I did a lot of work today, plz don't insta me by then thanks

[Charu]

Yo, who ever is Fictions Mom, you better start telling who put in time out in some way.

[Tps222]

what happened?

[Svaz]

Originally Posted by Charu

Yo, who ever is Fictions Mom, you better start telling who put in time out in some way.

Most likely, if she came out, mom would have one more full cycle (assuming dAnce guarded mom) to live before wolves got her. It'd be our best chance for game progression in the right direction, but it's also a surrender of leverage... it's tricky. I could see it being advantageous to stay hidden, too. The no external talking thing completely renders knowing a blue for sure unusable, sadly.

It could also be a wolf ploy (abstaining from killing) to shift suspicion elsewhere, I don't know. I feel like that probably wouldn't be ultimately advantageous, to surrender a chance to thin the herd.

Huh, for some reason I thought mom had them in time out during the day phase too, but I suppose I misread. I guess a mute AND roleblock would be a bit intense.

[dAnceguy117]

dear town,

the power of our votes will only be strong if we vote together. that's not to say that we should pick one person and immediately kill. that is to say that our votes should not be diluted and look like

1
1
1
2
1
3
1

at the end of the day. we'll vote together at least an hour before the deadline, and we'll kill a wolf.

we can do this.

love u truly,
danceguy

[Crazyjayde]

I hope you guys are okay with the fact that I need sleep. I hope we can all post analysis tomorrow then start narrowing from there. Voting the same person as yesterday without taking a step back or take a look at the whole can be misleading. My reads have been unfounded this game, I need to get back into doing my usual detective.

I'll be honest to god in my role, but I don't think I need to stress the fact that I am a party guest. Now try to be in my head a little: I'm thinking that the wolves, from where I stand, and being that my posting is sincere by nature, will have trouble sniping me down in day phases. First, it may be perceived out of place that attention will be brought on me immediately, and second, persuading others to vote for me needs an adequate context which are results of bad choices/mistakes. What I get from this is that either the wolves need to build up pressure during the day OR perform a kill at night. Now, I'm totally fine with the fact that anybody can vote me for any reason, but that's not where I'm coming from. What I have concluded late phase yesterday because of this is that the wolves will probably either let me live long enough and try to divert attention so that my arguments do not influence anything, letting the crowd go down in numbers so the lynch is easier to perform. That and killing me at night.

So if you're wondering why I've been freaking out it's because of this. There's multiple angles from where I'm working this idea on. So if anybody can clear a bit of my paranoia on this it would be great. It's totally more of a POV thing, but for those reasons, I've been finding it weird that Jrodd has patted my back on the Fiction wolf read and later ignored my question on his intentions. If you want to clear that up feel free, I sincerely don't consider those tell much about your case, however, things have been adding up. I am presently working on my reads, and doing my usual shit.

That being out there, I'd heavily suggest the mom from coming out today. Since numbers have been depleting, and the rest of our blue components are dead/confirmed, I'd like to stress that it may be the only time where we could have intel on someone's case and their relations. If you deem any reason that is good enough not to claim, stick by your feeling. Just consider that there is absolutely no way you can assure constancy in your role.

[Crazyjayde]

Dance, who did you target each night?

[j-rodd123]

at work, have to keep switching tabs so i dont get caught :S i'll just post my reads list, discuss until i get home

LOCK CLEAR (PRETTY MUCH)
Pizzaguy
Danceguy

DEFINITE HUMANS
j-rodd123

LOOKING VILLAGERY
Vendetta
crazyjayde
James May
Charu maybe

???????
Svaz
mellonxcollie

LOL WOLVES
DarkManticoreX2
Krauthammer
Tps222

[Krauthammer]

Alright MOMMY DEAREST, who did you target? That person has good chances of being a wolf.

Also hey, a colorful suspicious list from JRodd. It'd be nice if everybody posted a suspicion list, now that I think. It gives insight to self and to the others, and can help in the unified vote later.

Top is the last name, bottom is the first name.

WENDY IS LACTOSE INTOLERANT, ASSHOLE
Pizzaguy: Waiting for you, buddy.
Danceguy: The Clown. Still alive AND uncounterclaimed.

VERY HUMAN
Krauthammer: Yours truly.
crazyjayde: I'll be honest: before this phase, I had this guy in the tier below, however, that post he made recently...yeah, it makes me almost mark him as total human, at least for me. It kinda bugs me that it is a big defense, when nobody was attacking him or expressing a big amount of suspicion on him, but there is a difference between Jayde's post and TPS's uncalled defense from before: Jayde's post seems sincere, expresses confusion, and didn't rely on meta or similar to mark himself as human. It seems...just like another player, looking for guidance. I think that if he were a wolf, he wouldn't be able to make a post like this. And if he ends being a wolf...well, then that is impressive!

RELATIVELY HUMAN

James May: James, somewhat inactive, somewhat lost, somewhat contributive, he is here from time to time. However, I haven't been able to see something that may point to a wolf behavior.
j-rodd123: This one has been all over the place recently and isn't afraid of saying his own opinions around. Human indicators, in my opinion.
Svaz:

Originally Posted by Svaz

People are posting veritable tomes of posts and you've contributed, what, five sentences altogether, three of which are whining about this stupid deadline you've set. Why should I listen to you? Just because you claimed? Like, I'm sorry, but that's pretty lazy and not really any better than Manti's attitude. These LORD AND SAVIOR personas people develop are pretty annoying. Ehh, whatever. I suppose that's why they call this a prickass douche game for assholes.

The moment this was posted, I went all "woah calm down", mentally, that is. This post really attracted a lot of my attention. Would a wolf post something like this? Probably. But going against the power role like this has a lot of risks. I know (or hope) Danceguy isn't the type of player that think that the player that expresses discomfort towards the confirmed player is automatically a wolf, but Svaz (I think) hasn't played any games with Dance as a confirmed human, nor I think there has been one recently. Svaz had no way to know how Dance would react, or how people's reaction could be. Would people be a bunch of sheeps and be angry towards Svaz? Or would the post just be one more in hundreds of posts more? I think that a wolf's objective is to try to be active, but far from the spotlight, as it would mean a risk of being caught. This post doesn't help towards that objective. And I think that only confident and/or experienced wolves wouldn't be afraid of being the center of attention. I don't know how experienced Svaz is, or something, but meh.

ON THE BAD SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM
Vendetta: Man, you have been much more inactive than what I'm used to. You're the player I have no idea what to think.
mellonxcollie: Most inactive player here. I know you're busy, and all, but eh...without posts from you, it is hard to classify you as a wolf or as a human.
Charu: Where do I put you...here? You have been going against TPS, that kinda calls my attention. This is your first game. Would a first timer Charu wolf vote for his own partner, specially this early? That is the question. If TPS ends being a wolf, I think that would make Charu more human, in my opinion. However, if TPS is a human...that doesn't make Charu more suspicious or less suspicious.

WHY U HAVE TEETH SO BIG
DarkManticoreX2: Your complaint about the Party Pooper keeps being the biggest red mark I have on you. It still seems to me like a frustrated wolf. I know you said that a wolf wouldn't do it in the thread, but that reply itself is still a wolf post for me. It seems like "i'll do this thing then argue a human does that". In other words, something a wolf may do to look more like a human. Those two things are what bother me.
Tps222: Your uncalled defense is what still makes me mark you as a wolf. In Jayde's part I explained the differences between his and yours. Yours rely on a replacement, and an "only a normal human would request a replacement, it is a boring role" argument. That argument, and the fact that you weren't a target yet you posted something like that, are what makes me suspect you.

-----
So, in light of the stuff I have posted, I'll make a tentative vote on Manti. At least until MOMMY DEAREST makes the confirmation of who was targeted by her.

[dAnceguy117]

fiction's mom don't claim unless you're getting lynched.

Originally Posted by Crazyjayde

Dance, who did you target each night?

I'm not comfortable answering this and exposing my patterns. why?

[Vendetta21]

agreeing with jrodd's wolf tells, calling him human, and voting manti now after your second phase of lynching green? and with jrodd nonetheless. "oh no i'm going to keep completely agreeing with this guy and following his lead but never consider him wolfy when he fails to catch red."

Krauthammer

where was the insight on manti last night when we were sitting on fiction? and why not push for TPS in this situation when multiple others are doing so. do you honestly believe that TPS read with conviction? TPS still hasn't said much so what do you hope to gain by splitting the vote right now. I mean we know what we can get out of manti already (hint: nothing he's fucking lazy.)

you also have no real attacks or prods on manti for him to respond to, which makes this even more interesting. were you hoping for the momentum from yesterday?

[Krauthammer]

I'm not voting TPS right now because it isn't time for a lynch yet. It is time to wait.

Voting for TPS and making it nearer to an Insta is bad in the actual situation. So meanwhile, I vote for the second suspect.

[mellonxcollie]

Sorry I have been so busy, especially as a replacement. At least I have a computer to use now!!

Danceguy you are right about voting together. However this also lends itself to easy bandwagons and wolf sabotage so we should tread lightly. We do definitely need to be more coordinated and I think we would all benefit from everyone paying just a bit more attention to what everyone else is doing

I know how bad my inactivity looks on my part. However, I can assure you that I am a party guest (maybe if I had a more interesting role I would make a bigger effort to get online, JUST SAYIN). I am just an easy scapegoat with nothing against me other than the fact that I have made few posts.

V, I think your suspicions are probably right about Krauthammer, the timing of that post was odd.

[Crazyjayde]

Originally Posted by dAnceguy117

I'm not comfortable answering this and exposing my patterns. why?

Taking some things in consideration. Any elaboration on why suggesting the mom not to claim though?

[dAnceguy117]

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

Danceguy you are right about voting together. However this also lends itself to easy bandwagons and wolf sabotage so we should tread lightly. We do definitely need to be more coordinated and I think we would all benefit from everyone paying just a bit more attention to what everyone else is doing

the lynch is more prone to wolf sabotage if the votes are close at the end. there will be a bandwagon regardless; it's a matter of choosing correctly.

Originally Posted by Crazyjayde

Taking some things in consideration. Any elaboration on why suggesting the mom not to claim though?

the role can still be useful, and this game is not at must-lynch. even with the N2 no-kill, revealing fiction's mom's target gives ambiguous data.

what things are you taking into consideration that require my targets?

[Crazyjayde]

Well it's ambiguous at best if we don't have the data... and if any role so far would have claimed, we would have ambiguous data anyway.

Well anyway, I'll tell you why even though it kinda makes me look like a big douche. I usually like my thoughts to follow the guidelines of a tenth man theory, if every actors implicated in a case comes to the same conclusion, I'll explore the possibility of something they deem impossible. I don't always stick close to those opinions, but it's an experiment in critical thinking. Following this, I took in consideration that there is a possibility that you might be wolf. Quite thin I might say, but there is no denying that wolves may benefit from it.

Being that nobody has counterclaimed, the possibilty is at >10%, but WHAT IF the player in question has been deeming it more valuable to stay hidden. What if the wolves were actually trying to fetch an additional claim? What if the claiming wolf would have good probability in sticking until the end if that is the case? There's 4 wolves in this game, three wolves can easily carry the game to the end even if one takes a high risk, being that you were already at risk of being lynched. You know, it's a big WHAT IF. But it helps freshen the mind.

If I'd put aside your previous claim, you could easily go from villa to wolf considering how you have posted and how you have reacted. BUT even though I'd still read you green. Just a lazy green.