TWG CXX: Villains United

[TWG Jafar]

Originally Posted by TWG Yzma

don't edit your posts jafar

Quotes around pretending. Thought I was getting them in before the minute free edit timing window closed.

Won't happen again.

[TWG Hades]

Originally Posted by TWG Cruella De Vil

a hero might vote on a villa/villa kitb because they believe one or the other might be blue, or to cast suspicion on someone they want to kill the next day

That is possible in theory, but it does not seem plausible in this case. Any blue on the chopping block is not going to say "vote for me" they are going to say "I am blue, don't vote for me" so that the Heroes at least have to use a night kill on them. At least I would hope that no blues go down without a fight.

As far as suspicion, it seems to me that the person who gets the most suspicion from breaking a KITB would be the person who broke the KITB and the person who they saved. Heroes want to avoid attention, so doing this is pointless and stupid if it is Villain/Villain, and only makes sense if it is Villain/Hero.

there's a much broader range of possibilities than narrow little game theory diamonds of decision-making; the more important questions are about Auto's behaviors in context of what he said in the past and what he says in the future and whether or not that decision fits with what his intentions appear to be elsewhere

There is definitely a broader range of possibilities, but so far none of them are plausible in my opinion. As for narrow little game theory diamonds of decision making, how do you expect to play this game? Based on broad sweeping generalizations and 'feelings' about other players?

Who did you vote for again yesterday? (Don't answer this, it's rhetorical.)

[TWG Jafar]

Originally Posted by TWG Jafar

Blaming Hans for not defending himself - Hans did defend himself, and rather well for D1. He split his time between defense and he did his hero searching research and he added to general conversation. All of that was pro Villian.

Originally Posted by TWG Cruella De Vil

Hi I read through your post history and didn't see anything please quote your defenses of hans TIA

Originally Posted by TWG Jafar

Hans has been up there all day, despite making some solid contributions and train of thought logic.

Hook almost wiggled out once already, despite not doing anything about it and I really didn't like that.

Kinda thought I posted a more vocal defense of Hans, so I forgive you for missing that one post. I was focused on trying to get Hook lynched, and in being forcused on that I guess I didn't defend Hans to the thread.

It's still pretty obvious from my fervor in going after Hook that I thought Hook was the better lynch. Hell Hook thought hans was a bad ynch.

[TWG Hades]

Yes, but at the time Hans was looking guilty, so Hook sticking up for him only made Hans look worse.

[TWG Cruella De Vil]

What I'm trying to say is the conclusion you've narrowed in on (that Hook is the best lynch choice) excludes a lot of possibilities

1. If we lynch Auto today and he comes up Hero, Hook is almost certainly Hero
2. If we lynch Auto today and he comes up Villain, Hook could be either
3. If we lynch Hook today and he comes up Hero, Auto could be either
4. If we lynch Hook today and he comes up Villain, Auto is almost certainly Villain

this is what you said (added numbers to your words)

So you chose hook based on this game theory diamond, but Hook being hero is partly indicated (in your opinion) by the possibility that Auto might be hero, but auto being a Hero NECESSARILY indicates that Hook is a hero, yet you chose killing Hook because he might be a hero, and if he isn't we get the benefit of clearing Auto???? If there is a seer in this game auto is likely either cleared or not already, but the bigger thing is why wouldn't you be interested in the choice that would possibly catch you two wolves if your going to think using a methodology like this???

See this is what I'm talking about when I say that your game theory diamond is really narrowing and excluding possibilities and just basically saying "fuck reading people's behaviors, I'm going to arbitraily slice up the playerbase and play some dumb version of checkers."

Plus you haven't really supported why you "believe" either auto or hook must be a hero????

I think the Queen is probably thinking along the right lines looking at people who stayed away from the lynch choices entirely.

But for now I'm going to vote for Hades because he's trying to pretend he has considered a lot of shit that I just honestly don't believe he has. The whole strategy seems like its pulled out of his ass and he's just bushwhacking to get through every point people bring up in contention to it, but the big thing is saying he has considered these possibilities I've brought up when the original post really doesn't indicate that he has considered them (otherwise why wouldn't you just tell people in the case your selling to them those other options and why they aren't viable??)

[TWG Cruella De Vil]

Originally Posted by TWG Jafar

Kinda thought I posted a more vocal defense of Hans, so I forgive you for missing that one post. I was focused on trying to get Hook lynched, and in being forcused on that I guess I didn't defend Hans to the thread.

yeah this is what i'm talking about, not that you fucked up somehow but how your past beliefs and preferences (or in this case, impressions of your own behavior) are really easily revised when you get new information and that it's not entirely intentional

for the record i didn't miss that post i just didn't think it was at all convincing and didn't think it intended to serve the purpose of "keeping hans alive" which to me indicates a degree of uncertainty about hans at the time (just uncertain enough about his alignment to commit to seriously defending him)

[TWG Jafar]

Fair enough.

[TWG Hades]

Originally Posted by TWG Cruella De Vil

What I'm trying to say is the conclusion you've narrowed in on (that Hook is the best lynch choice) excludes a lot of possibilities



this is what you said (added numbers to your words)

So you chose hook based on this game theory diamond, but Hook being hero is partly indicated (in your opinion) by the possibility that Auto might be hero, but auto being a Hero NECESSARILY indicates that Hook is a hero, yet you chose killing Hook because he might be a hero, and if he isn't we get the benefit of clearing Auto???? If there is a seer in this game auto is likely either cleared or not already, but the bigger thing is why wouldn't you be interested in the choice that would possibly catch you two wolves if your going to think using a methodology like this???

See this is what I'm talking about when I say that your game theory diamond is really narrowing and excluding possibilities and just basically saying "fuck reading people's behaviors, I'm going to arbitraily slice up the playerbase and play some dumb version of checkers."

Plus you haven't really supported why you "believe" either auto or hook must be a hero????

I think the Queen is probably thinking along the right lines looking at people who stayed away from the lynch choices entirely.

But for now I'm going to vote for Hades because he's trying to pretend he has considered a lot of shit that I just honestly don't believe he has. The whole strategy seems like its pulled out of his ass and he's just bushwhacking to get through every point people bring up in contention to it, but the big thing is saying he has considered these possibilities I've brought up when the original post really doesn't indicate that he has considered them (otherwise why wouldn't you just tell people in the case your selling to them those other options and why they aren't viable??)

Interesting, because to me it seems like you are dismissing valid logic by calling it a game theory diamond, and ignoring the fact that none of the counterpoints that you brought up make any logical sense. If i can't base theory on motivation for actions, what can I base it on? Do you come into a game of TWG and assume that everyone will act in the most random manner possible and that the only way to catch Heroes is to catch them lying? If that is the case, I can point you to a number of games where Wolves use Human lies to push bad lynches through.

I chose Hook based on logic, not a 'game theory diamond'.

You said:

Originally Posted by cruella

a hero might vote on a villa/villa kitb because they believe one or the other might be blue, or to cast suspicion on someone they want to kill the next day

And I refuted both of these points. Neither is valid. How can you say that I have not considered them? Did you not read my reply? Apparently you need to stop skimming.

As for why I would not be for a case that gets us two Heroes: with that method we either lynch a Hero and get two, or lynch a Villain and have no extra information to work with. With the other approach we can either lynch a Hero and have some information to work with on top of it, or we can lynch a Villain and clear another Villain in the process.

I would rather go with the approach where we get some upside regardless of outcome. I would rather hedge my bets, and make sure that even if I am wrong, I get some information anyways.

[TWG Hades]

And it's not ignoring peoples' behaviors. Behavior is the reason that I focused on Hook and Auto, maybe I didn't make that clear. The only reason I thought this through was because both Hook and Auto are looking more than a little Heroic to me at this point.

[TWG Hades]

I was just trying to come up with a logical basis for getting as much information out of the situation as possible.

[Xiz]

Originally Posted by TWG Jafar

You should probably go back to the end of the day and re-read my stance and play. You know, during that time you sat in the back and did nothing.

I explained several times why I thought Hans was human, and I was heavily trying to get Hook lynched over Hans. There was no "pretending" that my motives or beliefs were different.

By taking such a stance you make it pretty clear you haven't done anything more then skim over the end of Day 1.

Do not edit posts. This is your first and final warning.

[TWG Hades]

Hook's attitude bothered me all day. He refused to try to contribute at the beginning of the day and put off any attempts to get information from him, which to me seemed like an attempt to get back off the radar without providing anything that could be used against him later. When that didn't work, he went inactive for a while (possibly trying to wait for everything to blow over). During this time, if I remember correctly, Auto came to his defense (just another piece of data linking them).

Gaston had a similar attitude that also bothered me, and I would consider voting for him if there isn't a push in the Hook/Auto direction.

Shere Khan either needs to start posting or be replaced.

[TWG Jafar]

Cat crew falling apart.

[TWG Cruella De Vil]

Originally Posted by TWG Hades

And it's not ignoring peoples' behaviors. Behavior is the reason that I focused on Hook and Auto, maybe I didn't make that clear. The only reason I thought this through was because both Hook and Auto are looking more than a little Heroic to me at this point.

Do you believe hook is more suspicious than auto?

If you believe they are equally suspicious, then wouldn't picking the one that, if you were actually right, necessarily tells you two kills (in your opinion) be the better option? Why would you prioritize the one that would give you information tomorrow if you happened to be wrong? Do you have a latent expectation that you are going to make the wrong decision and that is influencing your decision making?

If it is the case that you believe one is actually more suspicious than the other and that influences your preferences, then why did you feel the need to arbitrarily divide things up in that fashion?

[TWG Darla]

Hello friends

my power has returned; there was a nasty storm last night and on top of the shit my computer was already pulling on me, the power dropped for quite a while. I've been trying to keep up with the thread on my phone while conserving charge on it, and so far from the looks of it, my computer is done being an ass, so I can resume play as normal.


NOW


It seems like we've started the day looking at ~2 people out of 18. While I guess it's whatever if one person does it, why does no one else look elsewhere?

Personally, from their interaction this phase, i'm getting villain/villain leans out of Syndrome/Hades. Both seem to be putting in earnest efforts for leads.

I'm with Yzma, though, I would like to hear from and look at Gaston at the moment. What basis did you have for yesterday's random voting patterns? Would you like to follow up on this post at all? I imagine you're caught up by now; who are your current suspicions? Why didn't you vote at EoD at all?

Originally Posted by TWG Gaston

Also I am back and am in dire need of reading the past day's worth of material. Though I gather from the quick skim of the vote counts it looks like Hans is pretty much the lynch.

[Xiz]

Vote Count: (10 to insta)



:
:
:
:




No Vote:

[TWG Hades]

Originally Posted by TWG Cruella De Vil

Do you believe hook is more suspicious than auto?

If you believe they are equally suspicious, then wouldn't picking the one that, if you were actually right, necessarily tells you two kills (in your opinion) be the better option? Why would you prioritize the one that would give you information tomorrow if you happened to be wrong? Do you have a latent expectation that you are going to make the wrong decision and that is influencing your decision making?

If it is the case that you believe one is actually more suspicious than the other and that influences your preferences, then why did you feel the need to arbitrarily divide things up in that fashion?

I think they are equally suspicious. I am more sure about them than I am about anyone else at this point, but when the best lead is not a sure thing, why not make sure that there is an upside no matter what the outcome?

Do you have the expectation that every decision that you make will be right at the very beginning of Day Two? I am overwhelmingly sure of lynch decisions maybe 15% of the time, and even then, sometimes I end up being wrong.

Does acknowledging this make me a bad TWG player?

[TWG Captain Hook]

I really don't understand why people are still focusing so heavily on me not wanting to contribute to the early roleplay of the game. I had nothing of value to post at the time and really don't know my character well enough to get into the roleplay. I never saw Peter Pan.

Originally Posted by TWG Jafar

Kinda thought I posted a more vocal defense of Hans, so I forgive you for missing that one post. I was focused on trying to get Hook lynched, and in being forcused on that I guess I didn't defend Hans to the thread.

It's still pretty obvious from my fervor in going after Hook that I thought Hook was the better lynch. Hell Hook thought hans was a bad ynch.

I still thought it was a bad lynch in the end but seeing as it was going to be him or me I had to move my vote to try and live another day. I really feel like people are focusing too much attention on some of the wrong things right now. There are still a lot of people in this game.

I've been out most of today so I have a little catching up to do. I really don't see this whole thing with auto and myself. But I need to read everything that's been written about it still, I just saw the initial stuff earlier today.

[TWG Maleficent]

Originally Posted by TWG Cruella De Vil

The reality is Hans did a piss poor job defending himself and his play was very wolfy.

Honestly, I don't think many people bothered to read past the shit-posting. Much like you (!!!), they were too busy skimming. There was a defense hidden in there that I saw (his Q&A with Hades, for starters), but I wasn't going to push it further when there was a fair amount of heat on me.

Originally Posted by TWG The Queen

Facilier voted Hades
Gaston voted Jafar
Ursela voted Gaston
tigger aka Shere Khan didnt vote

Shere Khan just strikes me as an asshole, which is role-neutral.
Ursula's pretty active, which is grounds for a serious study of her interactions. However, I want to leave her in. Her activity yesterday makes me think she'll show up again today to provide more information, unlike...
Facilier and Gaston. Both of them made votes without any reasoning and made (seemingly) empty promises to study the thread more intently. I say they're definitely potential lynch targets. Let's throw in Hook from the Hook vs. Auto discussion as well: like I said before, I don't think Auto would kill Shan Yu due to the latter tunneling him at first. I think he'd pick a similar target without the same baggage, like Dr. Facilier or, I don't know, Darla.

[TWG Syndrome]

Originally Posted by TWG Maleficent

I don't think Auto would kill Shan Yu due to the latter tunneling him at first.

If Auto is a hero, he wouldn't be the only one able to kill people. There isn't just one hero...