TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

[Tokzic]

Originally Posted by iggymatrixcounter

Conclusion: Now that I've looked at what everyone has been saying, it is a better idea than what I was thinking it was but I still advocate hidden alliances because the only risk you run into is dumb pawns giving out info. You have to realize that if there's 1 overlap, the overlaped person will hook the two together. And damage control is maintained by not sharing the names of the seers.

uh

nforcer's plan will probably either go for another attempt or break into hidden alliances if it fails N1 anyway

so i still don't see why you would advise something different considering that the risks are the exactly the same but there is great potential gain in nforcer's

[Afrobean]

Haven't read everything yet (I think I'm on page 2 right now), but I just thought of this stuff and I want to say it before I forget.

My plan I said in my first post worked best with no millers, but still functioned well with 1 miller. With two millers, the seer could have a small chance of seering both millers and coming out, which would suck really bad (along with all the stupidity of the chance of a wolf faking or a legit coming out and no one trusting them). With two millers, I feel that the best course of action would be to go for hidden alliance and maybe sacrifice seer'd greens as figure heads to reveal as someone has been seer'd as red. What might be better though is to have seer'd greens simply push for the lynches of seer'd reds. This way, it won't totally reveal who has been seer'd and who hasn't and as long as the person who had been seer'd is good at coming up with logic to lynch someone, we can end up lynching seer'd reds.

And the idea I had just now: The two seers should try to seer the same person. I have no idea how this could be done exactly (if it's common knowlege who is being seer'd the wolves will just kill...), but if it could happen we'd have both seers working together from the beginning of day 1. Can anyone come up with something that could help the seers to seer the same person without revealing that one person to everyone? I feel like there's a way somehow, yet I can't think of anything.

[nforcer06164]

Afrobean, my plan gets the two seers together, even if they seer two different people, provided they are both green. Go back and reread it.

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by nforcer

My death would easily have value equal to that of two wolves, maybe less.

That was my logic as well in my initial post, yet with two red millers, it's not really true. Two, one, or maybe no wolves is not worth losing a seer over... not in a game in which there is no master wolf.

[Tokzic]

InfernoBlueFlame: Was I right in assuming that if your plan fails N1 we're going to have another go or just go with two alliances?
nforcer06164: YEs.
nforcer06164: Because the risk increases exponentially each day.
nforcer06164: It's not worth it beyond day 1.
InfernoBlueFlame: Actually, another go second day is probably better
nforcer06164: But if we can get the seers in contact day 1...
InfernoBlueFlame: Then game won rofl
nforcer06164: Well, let's hear your take on it.
InfernoBlueFlame: If we shoot and miss first time, assuming both seers are still living for the next one, we will have eliminated 1-2 reds/red millers.
InfernoBlueFlame: Meanwhile, we will potentially have one guaranteed green in the alliance.
nforcer06164: See, here's the deal...
nforcer06164: If we have two humans...
nforcer06164: The seers can hook up by the end of the day
InfernoBlueFlame: I know that much.
nforcer06164: sup humans almost can't even lose.


[boring reptition of ideas in thread]

InfernoBlueFlame: That's the big problem of having seperate alliances if we nab a red or two - it will delay getting vital information out there.
InfernoBlueFlame: Meanwhile, the seers or allied greens could die.
nforcer06164: I think that's how things will have to go if two humans aren't seer'd
nforcer06164: This plan is very circumstantial
nforcer06164: But very beneficial if the circumstance is right.
InfernoBlueFlame: If we get one human, can't we just try for one more on day two?
InfernoBlueFlame: obviously we'd need the seer(s) who missed day one to do it
InfernoBlueFlame: But the plan could still work.
nforcer06164: It's risky, even I'm wary of that idea...
nforcer06164: But, it could still work
nforcer06164: I'm afraid of infiltration past Day 1
InfernoBlueFlame: The thing about this plan that irks me
InfernoBlueFlame: is that the reds will obviously buy into it
nforcer06164: What do you mean?
InfernoBlueFlame: Let's say only one green gets seered.
InfernoBlueFlame: They come out to the thread, but unfortunately, the other seer hit a red.
InfernoBlueFlame: What's to stop the red seer from dawdling around then poking their head in and saying "sorry for the delay sup i know you're green"
InfernoBlueFlame: Chances are slim of it happening because it would specifically require one seer to seer red and the red seer to seer a green
InfernoBlueFlame: But if it happens, we are in big trouble
nforcer06164: See, here's the deal with that.
nforcer06164: Any wolf can do that at any time.
InfernoBlueFlame: not really
nforcer06164: No?
InfernoBlueFlame: "HI I KNOW YOU'RE GREEN"
InfernoBlueFlame: "actually i'm seer"
InfernoBlueFlame: "uh"
InfernoBlueFlame: well they wouldn't say "i'm seer"
InfernoBlueFlame: they'd play it off and report it to their greenmate
nforcer06164: Right.
nforcer06164: Yeah, you're right.
InfernoBlueFlame: But the point still stands.
InfernoBlueFlame: Their situation is circumstancial, too... but there's even more in it for them.
nforcer06164: Hm, see, this is what I wanted.
nforcer06164: A substantial counterpoint.
nforcer06164: I knew there had to be something.
InfernoBlueFlame: i'm sure if we post that iggy will say "WELL YEAH THAT'S WHAT I WAS TALKING ABOUT"
InfernoBlueFlame: even if he just likes to make the plans
InfernoBlueFlame: I still say we give it a go though, but be on our guards about it
InfernoBlueFlame: We should encourage immediate responses on the seerings.
nforcer06164: Right.
InfernoBlueFlame: actually
nforcer06164: Baiting is hoping for too much.
nforcer06164: If that's what you were gonna say.
InfernoBlueFlame: Wasn't going to suggest it.
nforcer06164: Okay, go ahead then.
InfernoBlueFlame: Like I said, it's circumstancial and would only leave an opening.
InfernoBlueFlame: But anyway - we should make it so that at a certain time the thread meets up and shares seering results.
InfernoBlueFlame: That way the red seer can't twiddle his thumbs and notice an opening, then say "oh sorry for the delay ps ur green"
nforcer06164: Right, right.
nforcer06164: You mean like a time deadline?
InfernoBlueFlame: Bingo.
nforcer06164: Sounds good.
nforcer06164: Let's hear other input too
nforcer06164: Remember the day hasn't started yet.
InfernoBlueFlame: It'll dent the chances of everything working on our part but it will kill the chances of it working against us.
InfernoBlueFlame: Yep
InfernoBlueFlame: lol night talking
nforcer06164: It's amazing, no?

I don't even notice these things until I have someone to rant to about them.

yes i know more of that convo is important than not

[nforcer06164]

@afro: Wow, I completely missed that. Still, that seer would have to have one or two humans to pass info on to in case of getting killed. Oh, and I think it's best to kill anybody seered red anyway; it's kind of the inverse of the master wolf seered green. We can't be sure, but sometimes it just has to be done.

[Afrobean]

oh i see, nforcer

I dunno... it's better than anything I could come up with to do it, even if it sacrifices two seer'd humans to do so. And you KNOW that the wolves will kill the two humans who come out. Yeah... the wolves might go for blue hunting early on, but knowing that the two seer'd greens from day 1 won't get lynched, they'll be wolfed.

Also, what's this about blue miller? Their seer report comes back the same as real wolves, and red millers to the human seer? That makes lynching seer'd reds even more stupid...

I say we go for humans and pretty much disregard it when they come back red. Of course record the information and tell the alliance members, but don't go out and lynch them JUST for being seer'd as "not human".

[Afrobean]

you guys post too much... I was expecting double post rofl

[Omeganitros]

nforcer06164: Hey, I gotta get goin'....

OmegaNoxim: k

nforcer06164: But, always good talking to ya.

OmegaNoxim: Yah

nforcer06164: Oh, and you're in TWG... best get in the thread.

nforcer06164: We have three pages already

nforcer06164: and night hasn't ended.

nforcer06164: =P

nforcer06164: See ya

OmegaNoxim: WHAT



**** **** **** **** **** **** ****

Okay, gimmie a second to read the thread. God, it totally slipped my mind.

[Afrobean]

ok to elaborate on what I've said, I'll say this:

I advocate seers staying behind things. Themselves and their seer'd greens may push for the lynch of players they believe to be red, but simply being seer'd as red might not be enough justification for them to decide to lynch. Obviously if a player looks pretty red already and they're seer'd and it comes back red, then yeah... but if a player looks green, and their report comes back red, I would suggest holding off at first. Think of it the same way you would for a lynching of a player seer'd as green in a game with MW: that is to say, don't disregard the idea of them being a wolf, but if you do want to lynch them, do it later.

[Afrobean]

ok, so I keep thinking of things:

Basically a lot of you guys are pushing for a "find reds and kill them" strategy. This is not very good with two red millers and someone mentioned that blue millers come back as "not human" as well. That's like 7 people coming back red and only 3 of them are wolves. Maybe I'm misunderstanding something, but still with two red millers, that's only a 3/5 chance of lynching a seer'd red.

I think the best strategy is to play as normal. Try to lynch wolves during the day using logic. The alliances' function would be to:

#1: Seer humans and build and grow to gain power for their cause.
#2: Overlap with the other seer's alliance.

Lynching seer'd reds shouldn't be a part of what the alliance needs to do. I think they should play it more as a set of masons that gets new members every night. By the end of the game, there should be a ****ton of seer'd greens and after that you just lynch anything that hasn't been seer'd green.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

'AHHHHHHHHH!!'

*THUD*

'WHAT WAS THAT?!?!' yelled JurseyRider734 as loud as possible.

'It sounded like a yell coming from the direction of talisman's room,' replied iggymatrixcounter, still half asleep.

'We shuld go chek it out, rite?' xObserveRx chimed in, from across the hall.

Upon arriving at talisman's room, a gruesome sight was beheld by everyone.

//cue robot voice
THIRTY MINUTES LATER.

Welcome to mission briefing, soldiers.

I know how early it is, but..' started general nija.

'It's 2:36 sir!' shouted Afrobean.

'I know how early it is, but there is a serious problem. Standing in this very room, hell, maybe even standing beside you, we have four intruders. UNFORTUNATELY IT'S THE SECOND DAY HERE AND WE DON'T KNOW EACH OTHER WELL ENOUGH TO JUST PICK OUT THE INTRUDERS. They are believed to be Russian spies, sent here to destroy our bunker. Lucky for me, and bad for you, I'm about to leave. If you fagots can't figure out who the spies are, we're going to have to blow up the entire facility. Good luck. Lol.'

With that the general left.

'I played a game on the internet like this one time...' said Omeganitros, 'It was called 'The Werewolf Game.''

'YEAH WHERE THEY LYNCH SOMEONE EVERY DAY,' said JurseyRider734, still yelling.

'We'd better start...' Stoic RoivaS finished.

TALISMAN IS DEAD.

IT IS NOW DAY ONE.

DAY ONE ENDS AT MIDNIGHT SATURDAY

Players remaining: (Player Name/AIM)

Kilgamayan/bjstrattonIM
Afrobean/afrobean16
Stoic RoivaS/StoicRoivaS
Rioting/xRIOTINGx
Tokzic/InfernoBlueFlame
FoJaR/This Is FoJaR
iggymatrixcounter/Iggy911Mc
roundbox/tehroundbox
Shashakiro/Shashakiro
Omega Nitros/OmegaNoxim
Wilkin/Wilkini Evili
JurseyRider734/im jurs
xObserveRx/xTried N Truex
nforcer06164/nforcer06164
blahblah18/mastr414

That is all.

ps if you douchebags don't read the story tell me and I'll refrain from writing it.

[StoicRoivaS]

@afro:

Originally Posted by DiscoBobbyPARANOiA

Blue Miller - Meat. But with a twist. The Blue Miller comes back as HUMAN to the seer, and BLUE to the Wolf Seer.

Odds aren't that bad. 2 red millers and 4 wolves, 33% of accidentally killing a red, 66% chance hitting a wolf. I'm not sure which I like better but I still don't think the wolves would go for public greens. Why waste a kill on a known non-blue? Yeah it's a confirmed out of the way, but in a two seer game I'd rather take my chances blue hunting. That's my guess anyways.

[xObserveRx]

Just outta curiosity (and laziness), wasn't the night supposed to end at 12am? or do you just end nights when you get all required PMs?

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

I ended the night early because... I didn't feel like waiting.

If anyone has any objections to an hour early, let me know and I'll try to make it up to you.

[talisman]

helen keller would have seen that coming.

[Omeganitros]

No way, dude. Keep the story, it's awesome.

[nforcer06164]

iggymatrixcounter. I don't think I need an explanation.

So, are we moving ahead with my plan, or not? If we can reach a general consensus, we can get progressing right away.

[Tokzic]

Okay, so one thing I should start the day out with in case you didn't read the convo is:

DO NOT COME OUT AS A SEERED GREEN/BLUE YET.

If we end up going with nforcer's strategy, the red seer will potentially be waiting to see if we did not nab two greens. If both of our seers did not see greens, then the red seer (regardless of what they saw) could potentially dip their nose in and say "Hi, I seered you, you're a blue/green, sorry for the dlay in contact," and suddenly be a part of the alliance. All they'd have to do is wait to make sure we didn't get enough for our plan to work and we wouldn't know the difference.

To prevent this, like I said, we should organize a time for all seereds to come out at once. This will prevent the red seer from dawdling and seeing if he can come out to his seered without risk to identity.

AGRE/DISAGRE?

[iggymatrixcounter]

I say no. I gave you your "counterpoints" and your plan only has a 20-30% chance of working today. The likely senario strings a confirmed human out to dry.

Having the seers work hiddenly has just as many benefits as your plan does except the the seer alliances have to be more discreet in their lynching methods. And 3 days later there may be an overlap and then the alliances will be brought together without anyone being needlessly sacrifaced.

Besides, I'm surprised that you're advocating a human alliance anyways nforcer, you usually want the game to be played through the people and not an alliance where everything is decided for you.