TWG XXX - Objection!

[GuidoHunter]

Wolves still have to be greater than humans (check nForcer's example in the clarification thread), and there is no n3 witness pick. That's where you were off.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[Kefit]

So the prosecutor doesn't get to have more than two witnesses at a time? I'd like nforcer to clarify this, as I see nothing about this written in the rules of the game.

And the wolves need a majority now? That is rather bizarre, since wolves have always won by equaling the number of humans at night, before the wolfing. Again, nforcer please clarify this.

[Kefit]

If both of these are indeed the truth of the matter, then the main change is that the prosecution is now ahead of the wolves in the race for victory. This means that the prosecution is no longer a Good Thing for the wolves, and they will want the prosecutor gone just as much as the humans do.

Gah, it's late and I am tired. I will think about this more tomorrow.

[GuidoHunter]

Originally Posted by Kefit

So the prosecutor doesn't get to have more than two witnesses at a time? I'd like nforcer to clarify this, as I see nothing about this written in the rules of the game.

And the wolves need a majority now? That is rather bizarre, since wolves have always won by equaling the number of humans at night, before the wolfing. Again, nforcer please clarify this.

The last thing posted in the balance thread:

Originally Posted by nForcer06164

FINALLY: The prosecutor can have no more than two witnesses at a time. If the prosecutor has two witnesses, and a witness is wolfed, the prosecutor has to wait until the next night to choose another witness.

Wolves have always required a majority during the day to win. Wolves=humans in the day is a game on. If the lynch is a human, wolves have a majority and win.

So, the wolves still want the prosecutor alive to have him take humans out of the equation, but certain witness wolfings will put the prosecution back one day, while other wolfings and any lynching of a witness will upt them back two days. Either the prosecution wins immediately or has a looooong way to go.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[GuidoHunter]

To clarify the "certain wolfings", the only way to have the prosecution set back by just one day is if Tass were the first witness called, which isn't a very unlikely situation, but the Night 1 pick being wolfed is the only way for that.

Any other witness death sets them back two days.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[GuidoHunter]

Dammit, I got owned again by forgetting the transition. EVERYONE REMEMBER THAT THE DAY AFTER THE SECOND WITNESS IS CALLED IS SIGNIFICANT, AS IT IS THE FIRST DAY OF TWO FOR SURVIVAL.

That said, any death sets them back one day, regardless of the type of death.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[Kefit]

kk, understood on the prosecutor.

This means that there will be one additional human at end of day 3, preventing the wolves from winning.

This means that the prosecution is now ahead in the race - prosecutor wins end of day three, wolves win end of day four.

This means that the wolves no longer like the prosecutor. Unless, of course, they can kill one witness. This will knock the prosecution back to no earlier than end of day 4 win, and prosecution wins after wolves win. And wolves WILL win if all three are still alive:

First, the case of a witness dying anytime before night three. The source doesn't matter - let's say that he is lynched day 2:

16 players - (n1 wolfing + n1 witness call + d1 lynching + n2 wolfing + n2 witness call + (d2 lynching - witness death) + n3 wolfing + n3 witness call + d3 lynching + n4 wolfing + d4 lynching + prosecutor + 3 wolves) = 2 remaining humans after d4 lynch = wolf victory.

Assuming that a witness is killed on n3 or d3 (again, the source doesn't matter, so let's say d3 lynching), then:

16 players - (n1 wolfing + n1 witness call + d1 lynching + n2 wolfing + n2 witness call + d2 lynching + n3 wolfing + (d3 lynching - witness death) + n4 wolfing + n4 witness call + d4 lynching + prosecutor + 3 wolves) = 2 remaining humans after d4 lynch = wolf victory.

Looks like the wolves' ideal strategy is going to be to be to make sure to take out a witness at some point before the end of day 3. If they do, then they get ahead in the race, and they win. If they don't, then the prosecution wins at end of day 3.

Their other option is to help the humans take out the prosecutor, but with three lynchings and three wolfings available to take out a single witness, I think it is clear that going after a witness is a far more attractive strategy for them.

So I can now conclude:

Wolves want to kill a witness. They can actually kill up to two without pushing their victory back past end of day 4. They don't want the prosecutor to die, as his death pushes their victory back several days, which means they need to survive more lynchings.

Humans want to kill the prosecutor. Killing a wolf would be nice, but unless we kill both a witness AND a wolf, wolves still win at end of day 4. Even if we manage this, unless the witness was killed during night 3 or day 3, then prosecution will then just win at end of day 4.

The prosecution wants to kill the wolves, and desperately needs to keep their witnesses alive. The latter will be a key clue for human victory, I believe.

As for where to go from here, I dunno. I think that sleep would be a good first bet.

[Wilkin]

While we've discussed all the possibilities of the humans being completely owned by the wolfings and witnesses, we've failed to consider the other factors that come into play at night:

1) The guardian. Assuming that he takes a night off of Iggy in the future, which may be a possibility, a guard would be very helpful right now. I haven't done the calculations for whether or not it would in fact create an extra day, as the Prosecution team may null that. Though successful guardings are rare, it's still something to think about.

2) The wovles hitting the Prosecutor. While just as likely as a successful guard, it would still provide a deathless night. Since they would be notified that they attacked the Prosecutor, they might be able to use that information to their advantage by not killing possible witnesses they think that the Prosecutor role would choose.

3) The Prosecutor calls a special role. Assuming a non-red/blue is lynched today (and Tass was not a blue), the Prosecutor has a 36% chance of failing to call a witness at all. Include that with the 31% chance that the Prosecutor may have failed last night, and there's a very likely chance that one of the calls will fail before the Prosecution wins, messing with all these calculations we've come up with. And with each witness that is killed, the chances of the Prosecutor's next call failing increases dramatically.

Something else I have thought of is if the Prosecutor is taking note of these discussions, and could be planning to use a reverse-psychology strategy by now calling witnesses that wouldn't usually be considered to survive very long. We can't be too sure of who the picks would be without more information on the Prosecutor himself.

[FishFishRevolution]

Given that situation, the wolves will undoubtedly be able to swing votes on a witness at some point, giving them the win. They know off the bat, 4 people who aren't witnesses; themselves and the seer. Couple that with how many will be dead by Day 3, there will only be 7 people for them to choose from, two of which are witnesses and one of which is the prosecutor. I don't see, unless we lynch a wolf AND the prosecutor/witness, how this situation can be avoided, and pull through for a human victory.

Chances are if our focus comes off the wolves for too long, they'll win just as easily as the prosecuting team. I'm more for the focus on wolves, as Guido said earlier, although if we can get the prosecutor, that would solve all our problems.

[Kefit]

A successful guarding would knock wolf victory back half a day. Since wolves are ahead half a day with their end of day 4 win scenario, wolves still win at end of day 4. Same thing with the wolves hitting the prosecutor.

Likewise, a failed witness call effectively knocks wolf victory back half a day. More importantly, however, it knocks prosecutor victory back a full day, putting the prosectution behind the wolves in the race.

So yes, with all of these things flying around, it is pretty likely that in some point during the game, the prosecutor will fail to call a witness, or a witness will die, or we will even get a successful guarding. Unfortunately, unless such things happen multiple times or in combination with eachother, the wolves still win at end of day 4. Yay.

[FishFishRevolution]

AIM chat: twgpmdeal

[iggymatrixcounter]

Everyone send me the pm from the wolves AND what time you received it.

[nforcer06164]

nforcer's Guide To Slackers Who Are Indecisive:

LD (1) - TPS

Left to vote: everyone else

Day 1 ends at 9PM CDT (that's 10PM EDT, 8PM MDT, 7PM PDT, and 11AM Friday in Tokyo). You don't want phantoms. I don't want to dish out phantoms. We're good, right?

[Kefit]

Chardish

As I said before, and as I am sure Chardish realizes, witness deaths are far more beneficial to the wolves than to anyone else. The easiest way to accomplish this? Why, to wolf the witnesses. But wait, this can't be done unless we know who the witnesses are. Chardish's plan solves this problem. Furthermore, it raises the possibility of the the humans lynching a witness, which is a double bonus for the wolves - one guaranteed witness death, and one lynch without lynching a wolf.

Chardish is a smart guy. More importantly, he loves this game, and putting thought into the startegies and outcomes possible within it. I fully expect that he has gone through the same deductions that I did in my last few posts, and has worked out that, assuming no witnesses and no wolves die, prosecution wins at end of day three, and wolves win at end of day 4. In fact, I suspect that he arrived at these conclusions before day one even began - I don't buy his line of having "thought of [the plan] a minute ago" at all. In short, I think he is a wolf, and he was throwing that idea out there in the hopes that a stupid witness would jump for it.

Now, I have said before that we need to be concentrating on lynching the prosecutor. This hasn't changed. However, we have a minimum of three lynchings with which to nail him, and even if we do get him, we still have to deal with the wolves. Thus, I think that if I have strong suspicions that somoene is a wolf, and no suspicions yet as to the prosecutor, then there is no problem with going after the likely wolf.

Furthermore, we can't win until after both the minimum win condition for both the wolves and prosecution has passed. We can be assured that the winning scenario for the wolves requires either a prosecutor or a witness death. Thus, wolves WILL be going after one of the two, and will especially be focussing on wolfing witnesses. If this is the case, then we should let the wolves handle the witnesses - we cannot waste any of our lynchings, as if we don't get the prosecutor or a wolf by day four, then the game is over. Period. Either one will work, at least for now.

[iggymatrixcounter]

I also agree with kefit. We need witnesses to die but wolves will go for them also for the first couple days. (Or for the whole game IDK)

nick is fairly inactive and a good choice for being called a witness.

Probably won't be on by deadline, which sucks, but what can ya do.

So far there are people that need to send me their PM times. It is VITAL that you send them to me sometime since I won't be able to act on it until tomorrow probably.

[blahblah18]

ok i'm gonna be totally drunk the rest of the night, already am now, but I have to say Kefit is an absolute genius and everything he's said so far has been completely perfect and accurate. I love his reasoning on chardish, some of the best i've seen day 1 in a long-ass time... i'm voting chardish as well off of it

[mattc16]

blah

sorry, this is a random vote, just to confirm, i have no suspicion of blah whatsoever, i just can't be online any longer so i have to make some vote.

[nforcer06164]

nforcer's Guide To Phantom Paranoia:

LD (1) - TPS
Chardish (2) - Kefit, blah
nick (1) - iggy
blah (1) - mattc16

Left to vote: Kilga, chardish, Guido, wilkin, talisman, fish, Hans, Afro, nick, LD

9PM CDT, and it all ends... for one person, that is. 3:45 left to go and counting.

[Kilgamayan]

Tps. His vote was really early and I don't at all agree with the idea behind it that we should lynch witnesses.

Not much else stands out to me aside from the relative lack of posting overall (though this could be related the very short day), and the abnormal amount of Kefit/Guido posts.

I'll be here for a little while longer but I have a softball game at 8 so if you need to talk to me make it fast.

[Kilgamayan]

Oh, note that I'm making my vote based on the notion that Tps may be a wolf, not that he may be the prosecutor (for pretty obvious reasons).

Also I've been watching and reading this thread a lot, so don't think that the above being my first post is an indication that I'm not paying any attention.