TWG Turbo V: No One Pretends to be the Seer Game Thread

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase

100% false, if you like I will point you to plenty of examples

I'm working on elaborating on my own read, but I'd really love it if you could elaborate on yours as well

because while it's a little bit hypocritical of me to say this, I don't like how you deflect my asking you for more detail by asking me the same thing and not doing anything after that point

You seem adamant about that, huh? Well I've yet to play in a game where both wolves where inactive at least. I stand by my belief; post your examples if it makes you feel better.

It's more then a little hypocritical. Have you even given one sentance that implies why I am a wolf? Other then both of us talking about my post theory I recall nothing. Does my suspicion bother you that much?

[juckter1]

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

don't do this to me

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

youre telling me..

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

if i treated it as gospel i would've unvoted. my vote is still on aa and will stay there until i lean the other way. just seeing that didn't make me feel better

This sequence of posts seems town to me, because a wolf would probably be aware that Aryxi is not the seer, and so wouldn't see the need to respond to this. Of course, that can be a fake response, but the overall tone of his posting tells me that's not the case.

I feel ok giving DFR a townlean unless his future posts change my opinion. I don't have stuff I feel confident about regarding AA and Precarious so far, and with Aryxi I only have what I thought yesterday.

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by juckter1

Oh, was that the Commentrics thing you and AA were talking about earlier?

Something like that. The thoery is wolves spread out over the chart day 1

So there will never be two wolves in top 4 or 5

Meaning in this setup, out of Shado, AA, myself, and Haku only one is a wolf and the other three are town.

Obviously you don't just go off that, but i've checked it serveral games and it has q scary accuracy rating.

and lar i just mainly don't agree with it being a good post and maybe it just seemed good to you based on interpretation and timing. i'm like 95% sure that he wouldn't have said that if i responded to a quote or put @lar or something along those lines.

So it's

Hey Why do you think I and Aryxi are agreeing -> I didnt say that

Yes you did -> I mainly just didnt like the post



You realize you've never answered my original post straight, right?

[AragakiAyase]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

You seem adamant about that, huh? Well I've yet to play in a game where both wolves where inactive at least. I stand by my belief; post your examples if it makes you feel better.

It's more then a little hypocritical. Have you even given one sentance that implies why I am a wolf? Other then both of us talking about my post theory I recall nothing. Does my suspicion bother you that much?

it's really been a feeling that's been changing and building since the end of first day up until now, and I didn't articulate it yet, but I am now

here are some examples

relatively inactive, not totally: http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...d.php?t=144060

this is the best example I was thinking of:
http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...d.php?t=142638

I actually thought there were more, but a wolf was at least semi-posting stuff, so maybe you have a better point than I thought. but what bothers me is you seem to be pushing that as one of the main points of your argument, which I'll address in my big post

[danceflashrevo]

Originally Posted by haku post 223

I'm going to out right now if you want to lynch me.

Originally Posted by aa post 225

<haku's quote> what

Originally Posted by aa post 229

shado seems town
haku is scummy
MML seems towny
precarious is null
james is null
dfr is null
juckter is green
arxyi seems town

AA putting haku still as scummy here is very weird to me. Putting "weird" or something would make more sense.

Haku after this just says he's gonna tell his flip and role. But he's simply self destructing. He has no need to do this, he's not even piling votes at this point.

Originally Posted by haku post 239

<DFR Quote = "my lynchpool is haku into wolfe. haku's bneing really awkward and self destructive which isn't helpful. it seems like he's trying to cause a lot of havoc>
I agree, but that didn't stop me from rolling town.

I'm just worried because I know my game has been average.

He claims town here. Not seer or anything. Simply town. Everyone at this point basically just thought that he was gonna arnt it, iirc most actually had a town read. I was the only one that had a vote for him. Only AA, aryxi, and lar reacted to his claim. I don't sense that anyone changed their minds or confirmed their minds after this. I don't think anyone actually thought he was the seer at the end of the day, except for AA who comes in after I asked and says that he actually thought haku was the seer. Convenient because in this setup wolves always should go after the seer because there's no medic or any other PR. RNG is out at this point and a misdirection is highly unlikely. It's not ruled out but I doubt a misdirection would lead me to believe AA is wolf. Me saying that I trusted him at EoD was very lazy of me, very timid of me, and I can contribute some of it to being very tired because lol football.

[AragakiAyase]

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

AA putting haku still as scummy here is very weird to me. Putting "weird" or something would make more sense.

Haku after this just says he's gonna tell his flip and role. But he's simply self destructing. He has no need to do this, he's not even piling votes at this point.



He claims town here. Not seer or anything. Simply town. Everyone at this point basically just thought that he was gonna arnt it, iirc most actually had a town read. I was the only one that had a vote for him. Only AA, aryxi, and lar reacted to his claim. I don't sense that anyone changed their minds or confirmed their minds after this. I don't think anyone actually thought he was the seer at the end of the day, except for AA who comes in after I asked and says that he actually thought haku was the seer. Convenient because in this setup wolves always should go after the seer because there's no medic or any other PR. RNG is out at this point and a misdirection is highly unlikely. It's not ruled out but I doubt a misdirection would lead me to believe AA is wolf. Me saying that I trusted him at EoD was very lazy of me, very timid of me, and I can contribute some of it to being very tired because lol football.

haku had been posting badly all game iirc, I didn't have enough time to go through everything at that point

why is RNG out? also if the kill actually was a misdirection then you're obviously wrong about it not leading you to believe I'm a wolf. so far it still seems like all you have is that you think I killed haku, but you're wrong

[danceflashrevo]

AA do you really think that a misdirection would lead me to you?

[danceflashrevo]

like... idk it's very unlikely

haku had been posting badly all game iirc, I didn't have enough time to go through everything at that point

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase

The one thing that made me back off him at EOD was when he said "if you want to lynch me I'll out now" which made me think I might be pushing on the cop, so I stopped

But idk why he died, I assume it was a looking for the cop cause he didn't have townreads

[danceflashrevo]

yet you still had a scummy read on him after he said that, you even had a separate post reacting to it before you put your followup reads list.

[AragakiAyase]

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

AA do you really think that a misdirection would lead me to you?

I have no idea, I haven't played out all the possible kill scenarios and don't care to

I could say something to the post below that but it would be wifom

[AragakiAyase]

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

yet you still had a scummy read on him after he said that, you even had a separate post reacting to it before you put your followup reads list.

just because he made me worried that he could be the cop doesn't mean he suddenly magically becomes towny. I was remembering the last game where I was about to push hard on shado but he was actually the cop, which made me want to wait, at least for that phase. I still thought he was scummy

[AragakiAyase]

just think about the significance of my declaring my reasoning for interacting with haku the way I did

hopefully you can fix your read by doing that

[danceflashrevo]

i feel like you wouldn't put him on the same level of scummy as everyone else that you had as scummy. i feel like you would've put something indicative of marginally less at least

[danceflashrevo]

wait you had haku only at scummy

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase

it's really been a feeling that's been changing and building since the end of first day up until now, and I didn't articulate it yet, but I am now

here are some examples

relatively inactive, not totally: http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...d.php?t=144060

this is the best example I was thinking of:
http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...d.php?t=142638

I actually thought there were more, but a wolf was at least semi-posting stuff, so maybe you have a better point than I thought. but what bothers me is you seem to be pushing that as one of the main points of your argument, which I'll address in my big post

First, thanks for the examples, I'll check them out in a bit. I wanna try and get a sense of day 1's post count.

Second, I think me saying I dont like our interactions is a Much better excuse then you saying "a feeling". For someone who was trying to push me with a reason for a read, you've put me through too much Bush beating for that answer not to look weak as fuck. So kindly add "weak as fuck answer" to list of reasons why I think you lean wolf

Third, I fully expect town AA to laugh and forget about Commentrics pretty much right off the bat, but you seem convinced to let me know not to base my read on you off it, that I need more reason to suspect you then just that. You've mentioned it and gave it more thought then I ever expected you and I don't know how to take that

...
But I'm not taking it well.

How's that for expanding my thoughts? Your turn.

[AragakiAyase]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

First, thanks for the examples, I'll check them out in a bit. I wanna try and get a sense of day 1's post count.

Second, I think me saying I dont like our interactions is a Much better excuse then you saying "a feeling". For someone who was trying to push me with a reason for a read, you've put me through too much Bush beating for that answer not to look weak as fuck. So kindly add "weak as fuck answer" to list of reasons why I think you lean wolf

Third, I fully expect town AA to laugh and forget about Commentrics pretty much right off the bat, but you seem convinced to let me know not to base my read on you off it, that I need more reason to suspect you then just that. You've mentioned it and gave it more thought then I ever expected you and I don't know how to take that

...
But I'm not taking it well.

How's that for expanding my thoughts? Your turn.

I'm not sure how to forget about commentrics when you keep bringing it up

post is still in progress

[danceflashrevo]

Also your lynch candidates were inactives and haku/precarious. your vote ended up on james may which was like.. the most inactive and probably the quietest player of the game.

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase

why is RNG out?

Are you being fucking serious

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase

I'm not sure how to forget about commentrics when you keep bringing it up

post is still in progress

Hopefully big post addresses the other 2/3rds of my reply

[AragakiAyase]

k

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

You can always pass the time by explaining your wolfread on me, since you seem bored

sure

so let's start off with these two posts that I mentioned earlier

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

I like this post.

It's not true because I was graced with the role of wolf one of those games and I was not a low count poster (especially if you discount Charu posting the damn alphabet)

But I like this post

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

It honestly makes me like his post even better now that I understand it, although I kind of did agree

More content = Better game

I pointed out both of these as being weird, the first in particular as being a possible slip. the second post definitely seems like you mistyped, because if not then it just seems like you're totally misunderstanding, which isn't wolfy, some could say it's towny actually. these seemed weird to me but I gave you and will still give you the benefit of the doubt that you really did just mistype both times, so we're still pretty null here, although I was a little suspicious at the time.

not sure how I missed this next post, but this is basically my thoughts about the 2nd of his 2 weird posts. if it weren't about himself I would think decent mindmeld, but as it is idk

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

I feel like my series of post, in addition to the fact that I'm always for more active players, makes me saying did agree in that context more of retarded nonsense. Like I wouldn't know what I would slipping from that PoV

But you do you.

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Wolves tend to love when few people help the seer



Goin' after that easy lynch? C'mon now




If it comes down to that we've failed hard



Why? Give me a good reason because that seemed like it came outta no where

Also you forgot someone and that bothers me



Ehh, I don't think it matters one way or another.

this was a good post, not necessarily on amount/depth of content but just showcases your thoughts well and I think all your reactions here are reasonable. I don't really think that shado was going after the easy lynch but that's not very important.

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

I might proved pretty relevant, I don't know yet.
I'd expect you to be pretty neutral to people who didn't check, but to view them favorable strikes me as odd.

I know the implication is that wolves could easily make a check and fall in line, but I've seen games where that simply didnt happen. Rather someone checked or not should not affect how you place them on the Scum-o-meter at this juncture.

this post is pretty strange. you basically ignore the majority of shado's post that you were responding too, instead zeroing in on the whole checks thing. shado's post about "loving this group" was also obviously not game-related, so again reading too much into the check related stuff. You seem very concerned about the checks in this game and I don't see why that would be the case at that point. one of the things you ignored is how shado basically said what I said above, that he wasn't really going for the easy lynch.

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

You're experienced as fuck and anyone who has even heard of BOATS knows it.
I don't recall you saying it was only your 3rd forum game back then and you certainly seemed in your element

Hell we eveb had OOTC on and you where doing pretty damn good.



No, no not at all

Shado even for a "if we're gonna be that way..." style of retort that's weak as fuck.

and then you vote him for a "lie" that I've said repeatedly was not enough and could easily be clarified if he was given a chance to explain himself. I'm still not even clear on what the lie exactly was. If the whole epicmafia thing was a way of "catching" him in a lie about his online experience, I believe he online was referring to forum games, because I certainly don't count epicmafia games as actual games

and your vote never moved

here's the first reference to our beloved post theory

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Y'all can ignore this buuuut

Who Posted?
Total Posts: 152
User Name	Posts
AragakiAyase	30
MixMasterLar	26
ShadoWolfe	25
Hakulyte	18
juckter1	11
Precarious	11
R.E. Aryxi	11
James May	9
danceflashrevo	7

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Guys I have a hard time seeing Wolf Haku responding like that. Seems to me I would have gotten Much more of a shitpost sans the salt.

I see a dude who is concern efforts are being wasted and I don't think wolf Haku would see this game that way at this time

I think this is a pretty weak reason to townread him, I saw haku's post as being self conscious about his playstyle, which would lean wolf if anything

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Remember when he clearly lied about experience in an attempt to throw shade?

Also as town I feel like he wouldn't be tunneling on the new guy. This is kind of speculation on my part but I think Town Shado would assume new wolf can wait and go after more experience players.

more about the lying, also I think that's a bad assumption because as unfortunate as it may be, new wolves are still wolves, and it's being used as a reason to further push your case on him

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

"And yet it's only my fourth TWG on FFR, ans 6th online game ever"

That would mean the loads of experience he had in "other sites and IRL" that he said he had in BOATS was at most 2 games deep on the forum side of the scale, at most.

And if you ever read the logs from that game, you'll know he's either a prodigy or full of shit. Man was super comfortable running around in Discord, basically leading town for the majority of the game.

In addition to, you know, claiming he had enough experience to not be considered a newb and knowledge of general strats

Yeah

another reference to the "lie"

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

That's all that has been brought against him.

If you simply am not convinced then fair enough. To me, that experience nonsense has no excuse to exist.

I don't buy that Shado and Haku are close enough to playstyles for the "Haku did it too" excuse to really mean anything IMO

shows that his case is literally just the "lie"

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

AA searching hard for that other wagon.

You know, AA+Shado goes against Commentrics but it's still a funnt thought

Hey AA, why dont you suggest a better target

here's commentrics coming back into the scene again, I also wasn't searching hard as I said here

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase

I said haku but his response changed my mind

james may and dfr are possibilities cause they still haven't done shit

and I fail to see how I'm searching hard for that other wagon, I just disagree with all the pressure that shadow is getting

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Can't argue gut and last two points are valid

I think you re wrong but vote your conscience

Too close to cutoff for another post. My vote stands. Lar out

this post was made very close to EOD so I can understand a bit why it's lacking, but it was never addressed my thought about why the "lie" wasn't enough

tldr mml lynched shado only for lying

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Hey AA

What would your response be if I said according to the Post Theory, there's a confirmed wolf between us?

I mean, I don't feel like that's worth a vote atm but this would be the first time since I've kept up with it that Commentrics was wrong

Isn't it fascinating?

now that I look at this again, this post is really weird. we already know that MML like his commentrics/post theory, so it's reasonable that if he's following that he concludes that I'm potentially a wolf. But then he throws himself into it and says "confirmed wolf", which makes me think that he actually knows that there's a wolf between us, and that it's him


bolding because I think this post is really key

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Oh yeah, everytime I remember you have a vote on AA I am reminded of a story I heard about a buss, bussing it's was down bus street entering bussington with population: Charu

this is also weird because he makes it seem like dfr has been consistently pushing me but dfr had barely interacted me at that point, only coming in to say he trusted me, and then voting me the next day. seems like an easy place to slip in a scumread on dfr

so at this point it's mostly caught up, but to summarize:

MML lynched shado pretty much exclusively for his "lie", which I still disagree with
he seemed oddly concerned with checks and had an odd interaction with shado early on that I mentioned, where he basically ignored shado just to focus in on checks
and now he keeps waving around his post theory then has the nerve to say he'd expect a town AA to forget about it

his not liking my lack of a development is good, because admittedly that's my fault

but the rest of it is pretty lol