TWG XXVII Postgame

[Afrobean]

Yeah, you wolves messed up. With Tass leading an alliance you should have done something drastic. If I had been running the red side of things, I'd have attacked Tass almost definitely. Tass is good at leading alliances and alliances are a wolves worst enemy.

Basically, a lesson to people for being better wolves: when you're looking at a game in which your chances of loss are greatly increased, you might as well do something huge. Worst case scenario: you're lynched, but you had the fun of doing something amazing. Best case scenario: you win, and you get the fun of tricking everyone with something big.

[JurseyRider734]

Afro don't be stupid. Everyone thought Tass was the bane (besides the people in the alliance etc) If we tried to wolf him and he really WAS, we would look like idiots and waste a kill. Unfortunately we didn't know he was the seer. I joked about wolfing him because I don't like him that much, but it never went through because, well...it was a joke.

[talisman]

our mistake was killing hans... we should have gone with mini that night, even if it would have made it obvious that I (or someone else who knew tass decently well) was a wolf.

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by JurseyRider734

Afro don't be stupid. Everyone thought Tass was the bane (besides the people in the alliance etc) If we tried to wolf him and he really WAS, we would look like idiots and waste a kill. Unfortunately we didn't know he was the seer. I joked about wolfing him because I don't like him that much, but it never went through because, well...it was a joke.

Well, you lost anyway. Wouldn't you have rather had more fun with it and take a chance for once?

[JurseyRider734]

No. You play to win, not to **** around. Sorry you lose

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by JurseyRider734

No. You play to win, not to **** around. Sorry you lose

You obviously don't understand. Your loss was basically guaranteed as soon as Tass came out as alliance leader. I'm saying that you should have made a move to take out Tass, since you were screwed anyway.

PS sorry, I won. You lost OOHHHHHHHHHHHHH

[JurseyRider734]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

You obviously don't understand. Your loss was basically guaranteed as soon as Tass came out as alliance leader. I'm saying that you should have made a move to take out Tass, since you were screwed anyway.

PS sorry, I won. You lost OOHHHHHHHHHHHHH

So because Tass was the alliance leader, you're saying the wolves should have given up and not tried to win?

Wow you're so ****ing stupid its not even worth arguing about this

[Afrobean]

Am I really wording it that poorly, everyone? Perhaps someone else can say it in terms that she'll understand.

[Tasselfoot]

Well... you probably should have given up. But that is another matter.


Afro, I gotta say... Jurs is right. You play to win the game. While I don't disagree that given the situation, trying something drastic might not have been the worst course of action... odds are it would make losing happen faster.

The kill that REALLY was dumb, more than Hans, was eb. Mead made it super obvious that he was working with me closely, more than anyone else... yet you left him alive when you KNEW I'd vote with him against you. At least if you had attacked Mead, both talisman and eb would have been alive. We weren't 100% certain it was talisman, but more like 98%. Still, better than killing eb and making it 100%.

[JurseyRider734]

If he tried to attack Mead, it would have failed, because he was the wolfsbane. rofl good one

[talisman]

are you kidding? I was dead either way and wanted the game over. I considered wolfing myself, just for kicks. Plus I felt that eb didn't really deserve surviving the game, given that he did jack ****.

[Tasselfoot]

That would have been great.... wolfing yourself. Committing suicide. Hilarious.

PS - Time to update my sig again...

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by Tasselfoot

Afro, I gotta say... Jurs is right. You play to win the game. While I don't disagree that given the situation, trying something drastic might not have been the worst course of action... odds are it would make losing happen faster.

"you play to win the game"

Yeah. The only way a wolf team is going to win against a strong alliance is by doing something drastic. If they're going to try to lay low, they might as well just wolf themselves. My point from the beginning is that they had no chance of winning and that they should have given themselves a small chance of winning through doing something drastic.

Yeah, it probably would have ended in a loss for them, but how would that be any different than how it played out anyway?

[Wilkin]

I believe both Afro and Jurs are right, but they're just taking the extremes. Any shot for survival would be worth it, especially if losing was imminent. You do play to win, and I believe any wolf doing something drastic shouldn't be merely for the Hell of it.

However, this game probably couldn't have been saved for the wolves, so perhaps this isn't the best case to debate this over.

[Tasselfoot]

Sig updated.


Top 10 players, after XXVII:

PLAYERS Wins Games Percentage Survivals
Tasselfoot 15 24 0.625 9
Kilgamayan 13 20 0.650 7
Lightdarkness 13 22 0.591 7
BlahBlah18 13 23 0.565 7
JurseyRider734 10 12 0.833 6
Afrobean 10 15 0.667 7
evilbutterfly 10 18 0.556 5
nforcer06164 9 15 0.600 6
Talisman 9 16 0.563 5
HansSky 9 19 0.474 4


Kefit, Guido, and TPS are all at 8.

[Tps222]

//Jurs was a wolf in TWG 13, missed that one I guess.


Jurs-I looked up all of her previous games to realize she has never been a wolf. Unless I missed something, which I'm pretty sure I didn't, I don't know how to compare her to past games. I'll just use a few quotes that spark my suspicion meter from her.

TasselFoot (4:46:36 PM): go post.

Okay.
I've never played with iggy before, so I don't know why or why not he should have been wolfed. And as everyone else said, it makes sense for the wolfsbane kid to come out for alliance etc.
I also don't understand what Wilkin said. I got lost in the words.
Tass, please inform me if there's something else I need to post that people didn't already say. I'm also on AIM.

Seems jurs-like, except for the whole iggy comment, would seem like a reason to wolf him.


Then there is the whole switch from Hans(safety vote) to Afro(in order to save hans). I guess this makes some sense, as she is friends with hans, and she really doesn't like afro. Posts some weak points saying that Hans is a good addition to the team, so he should live, seems like an odd concept, especially in this game where every day counts. Damage control is not a creditble option.

I agree with mead about Wilkin. He's a smart kid. I can tell he has a lot of influence on Hans because of the way they talk and stuff, so I can tell he's very intelligent because Hans is, too. I'm not saying Wilkin couldn't be a wolf, because he very well could be and is too smart to let that vibe off, but he's not setting off any alarms for me.

Post on day 2, her entire game revolves around hans it seems. Not sure what to make of that.


Jurs votes afro again, says that he does a poor job of summarizing mead's posts for evidence as a wolf, and that he voted wilkin, who she believes to be human, also making him a wolf. Weak.


Tasselfoot- Human. No way tass could have known if the wolfsbane was dead and fake it. I can't see any scenario as to how he would have a reasonable chance of faking it. The bane would have came out by now, so he is legit.(olol, I'm retarded, props to blah)


talisman- Was a wolf in TWG 16. I was seer, just re-read it and laughed at my horrible posts trying to lynch him without saying I was the seer. Tis why I was wolfed that night. Anyways, to analyze posts this game with that.

As for the kill, hans is a strong player but not strong enough to be a likely guard on night one? I'm not sure if the kill gives us anything to go on or if we're stuck with the normal day one doldrums.

Comments on the kill, he did it in this game as well. Not really anything too important, I know some people hold beliefs that comments on kills is suspicious, but he seems to do it every game, so nothing there.


He tries to get on the humans good side. Starts a chat, no one joins. He then goes very quiet for a bit, and goes into a conservative posting mode. He put up any strong attacks against anyone, and just tries too hard to be human. He points out shox's absence as a distraction, and puts together a sketchy vote on snapps, of which he derived a list of suspects that were flying under the radar.



His only post that resembles anything of talisman this game is his long defense against tass, that basically refutes tass's claims. Although, I do find some of talisman's posts wolfy in this game, 16 was a while back and players mature.


First post discusses possible scenarios with the bane coming out. This seems like classic Talisman, but it has the same properties as a human looking post as a wolf.


Talisman then goes on agreeing with Guido

I wouldn't be so certain that the bane will come out. Guido makes a really good point in that it's easily faked... and I agree that it might not be to our advantage to trade the bane for a wolf, if two were to come out.

I've read this post a few times, and I can't determine if he was defending or attacking guido, to me, it looks like a minor attack. Decide for yourself I suppose.

k finished rereading and imagine that... guido has nearly the same thoughts on hans I had/have. Though I don't really agree so much with his analysis of the later posts, but moreso with that of hans' first. Maybe it's the "go go go" again or how readily he agrees to the bane coming out plan, but something seemed off with it. And then there's the way he's going after tps... granted I myself find a couple of tps' posts decently sketchy (especially the "I want to win" one where he accuses guido that hans based his arguments on), but I tend to think of tps as the player that wouldn't be so obvious about his intentions like that, if he were a wolf. Could be wrong, the only memory I have of him as a wolf was when he nearly duped us all in the cardflipping game, and I don't think he was making the kind of posts then that he's making now (although circumstances were different that game).

Also, I'm reminded of last game a little bit, where tass (the wolf) just went after the sketchiest player (I agreed with him at the time) day one and got him lynched... it was only in retrospect that I realized that even mead wouldn't be that blatantly obvious (something hans himself pointed out during that game).

*Whole bunch of votes on guido*

ugh... eb. blah is telling me not to bandwagon and I agree (with the two choices theory)... I I'll let tass decide if it's going to be hans/afro/tps/whatever.

Steps back and leaves it up to the leader. This seems to be both a human and a wolf trait of talisman, and seems like a good idea in each situation. He posts the chat that verifies his claim that he had prior feelings with evidence on EB, and that he wasn't just blindly listening to blah. Neutral stance on that post.


I vote guido with a comparison of styles to 23


Talisman responds with

The comparison to 23 is interesting, but I'm not sure I buy dismissing his bringing up of the "what if a wolf fakes it" scenario. Seems to me like there's plenty of reason to bring that up if no one mentions it, so as to save the seer from going to the bane prematurely, in case a wolf faked first.

Seems as he is now sticking up with Guido, after guido seems to be lynched for sure. Personally, I believe Guido was a wolf, so that is a suspicious post to me. Especially when I stated that a seer should always know the risk of a fake leader, so his defense isn't credible.

Kind of far fetched and convoluted, but possible. On the topic of guido, I kinda doubt that he was a wolf, but I've been known to have bad instincts regarding day one lynchings (sorry mead). I mean, I see what blah and tps are saying, but I also think that guido acts that way alot of the time anyway, not posting much, but posting fairly thought out responses when he does.

A little better defense as to why he didn't agree with guido. It's about 11:20 right now as I am typing this, and I have realized that all my comments on his switching are void if that post was a defense for guido, instead of my interpreted attack. I'll hop off that train for now.


His votes and attacks in his wolf game, TWG XVI:

Things that worry me:

- aperson whining. I see it as equally plausible that he is telling the truth or that he has a hidden agenda.
-omega putting out the revenge vote. This was just dumb. I don't know what to make of it.
-tass saying jack ****. Seriously, tass has set himself up so well to be a wolf this game with all the stuff he promised about changing his playing style in the postgame of 15. If he is a wolf, no one will be able to use behavior differences against him. He can just claim it's his new style. All that said, if he's human he'd have the same new style.
Anyway, djshox where are you? He hasn't said a word... which if you remember his last game, was exactly what he did as a wolf, racking up two phantoms and being so inactive that he had to be human. Would he do the same thing twice? I dunno. But it's something to go on, at least.

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I'm starting to hate these six o clock day endings... I have to work today from 1-7, which basically means I have to be absent AGAIN for the time when the real "action" happens and the voting starts to shake out.

In any event, I really don't feel prepared to vote right now. Omega seems very wolfish to me if I consider him to be a devious and quick-witted player and very human if I consider him more of a casual, nonchalant player. His reputation outside the game leads me to believe that it's more the casual style that he adopts rather than the cunning, but I could easily be wrong. The one game we played together (where his blue-ness was announced early) he didn't really post that much, usually just to put down a vote, so I'm not really sure how to read him. In any event, I don't know enough about him or suspect him enough to give him a second vote.
Right now I'm kind of worrying about the people who are flying way under the radar: flypie, snapps, kilga, and mead. Flypie and mead always seem like this to me, so they don't worry me as much. Kilga normally doesn't contribute that much (although perhaps he's been contributing less this game than in past ones). That leaves snapps, who I honestly believe is probably just posting his random "oh I'm playing" stuff probably due to noobiness, but I don't want to take a chance. Combine this with his random "I got saved night one" comment (impossible... the seer would have to know the guardian and have seered him and why the hell would the wolves attack snapps in the first place?) and he has just enough suspicion to justify my (albeit phantom-avoidance) vote.

Very weak accusations against innactive players, and then uses outside knowledge on omega on a game that changes people's personalities.


This game's attacks and votes:


Going to use his PM to tass that he posted as his attack and reasoning post, mainly because I'm tired and that sums it all up. (Talisman was the only one, I believe, to fully comply with Tass's PM request. EB named 1 person I believe)

what I just sent to tass (written before I saw eb's post just now, not that that changes anything):

finished rereading. my top three:
1. still eb. everything about his posts day one up through his vote post on afro seem off to me... overly defensive, forced, etc. The posts after that seem more natural, but still rather defensive. I want to see what he posts today.
2. mead/blah. I had to willfully force myself to overlook mead's posts yesterday based on how I messed up last game... but that doesn't change the fact that they're all way off sounding (see afro's vote justification post). still giving him the benefit of the doubt, for now.
On blah, all that last minute stuff made me really reconsider him. My only experience of him (that I can remember right now) as wolf was when I was a wolf with him, so I'm not really sure what he's like as a wolf from a human perspective. but I'm also leery of the apparent illogicality of the wolfings... blah has already played the "I'm too logical to do that" card and that would be my first assumption as well... but how easy would it be for him to cash in on that? sort of like ld cashing in on his inactivity.
3. mini/vash - there's no way these two are together, that's for sure (unless they're really really bad, and I don't think they are), but they definitely both made some seriously weird votes. Wilkin already pointed out the way vash could have possibly been setting up for a last minute save for guido by voting afro, and mini's vote on hans was an incredibly blatant bandwagon.
I realize this is 5, not 3. If I had to strictly 3, I'd probably go for eb/blah/mead or maybe eb/mead/mini.

His attacks are much more rich in content than his other game. He brings up some valid points with blah, and his others have some decent credibility to them. He's attacking larger names than innactive players.
His vote on EB

IRL excuses aside, nothing today has made me drop my suspicions of eb. If anything, his vote post (his only post today) furthered them. For one thing, he seems to have forgotten completely about afro, and is now all over wilkin. For another, he's essentially borrowed reasoning from tass and applied it to someone else... it seems to me almost like a way to walk the line between agreeing with the alliance leader and not bandwagonning with him at the same time. Even if that's not true, I still disagree with voting for wilkin on any kind of behavioral basis at all. How can people know that his posts seem off if he's never posted before? Not ruling him out, just saying that I find such justification weaker than others.

When I first read this I agreed with the points he made, and seemed like I was either going to vote afro or EB that day because of it. Unfortunately I didn't get on in time to vote, which was half my fault, and half RL's. This seems like more of a Talisman attack post than his other game where he had to stretch for reasoning. Dunno, perhaps I looking too far back, and he has advanced his play.

Mead-

[Tasselfoot]

so, this isn't a post-game post.... its just the post that you were going to make when I told you to, but then you realized you had been seered, so you didn't post it.

How about a post-game post?

[talisman]

he didn't post it because I insta'd him... if I'd waited I think he would have posted it. But he did mention to me he thought he'd been seered.

[Tps222]

Post game post isn't needed because I already discussed with you everything that happened, no need in revealing my mindset to the masses, is there?

[Tasselfoot]

Always... and if you don't feel like making it yourself, I'll just post our convo.