TWG XXIII: Assault on France! Victor E. to Humans!

[talisman]

I say we wait and see if anyone else comes out... it's highly unlikely but you never know. If someone does, we lynch them both and switch to matt's partner for the alliance.

If someone doesn't we trust eb, but I think there should be some kind of security system like where matt's partner and the guardian know each other so that if the guardian dies then matt's partner rats on eb. something like that, I dunno.

Also afro, it seems to me unlikely that eb (or any other wolf, if eb is a wolf) would talk to matt (of all people) before the game started and that matt would reveal himself. But an outside possibility, yes.

[Kilgamayan]

Looks like the wolves are taking a page from recent BMS games. Damn I hate confusion kills on Night 1.

What makes this worse here is that there won't be a stupid bandwagon against me on Day 1 as a result that I can pick wolves out of D:

[Tasselfoot]

Kilga: who pays attention to those jBMS games? I haven't checked out BMS since like twg9... I've heard some BAD things about them though.

[nforcer06164]

I had quite the "wtf" moment when TPS voted for me. I thought he was being serious O_o

Anyway, I think we can trust eb as the lone green. I'd say give it a good 24 hours so everybody can see the thread, in case he is a wolf trying to get the guardian to come out early and take him down. I doubt that is the case here, though.

Talisman, you sent out a PM to all of us about the revelation strategy. Now you're just going back on this. The problem is, there is NO WAY to confirm anybody that said their partner died is telling the truth. It has already been discussed, maybe not in the thread but in other places, that the perfect wolf plan would be to kill one wolf, then another wolf would come out and say their partner was killed. There would be no argument, and BAM. Instant wolf victory. The converse is also true. A human innocently reveals that his partner died. A wolf argues. We lynch the human, and trust the wolf. Even if we decide the arguer is a wolf after one or two days, we've still wasted time with a rat in some alliance, and false words whispered in our ears.

The main focus right now should be this: guardian, wait until all players have seen the thread, then contact eb. This will give you someone to trust and discuss situations with as the rest of us do. And everyone else: TALK TO YOUR MASON PARTNER. The more communication we get amongst ourselves, no matter how small the group, we can trust what the other is saying, knowing their humanity. It can get us a little bit closer to the wolves if we pool our ideas. Two heads are better than one.

Oh yeah. nforcer is back.

[Tasselfoot]

nForcer... I thought of what Talisman said as well, and as well was going to use it. But, considering what Talisman said to everyone... no wolf could get away with doing it, as they wouldn't be able to come out. Theoretically they could be the "widower", but is the EV worth it? can it EVER be worth it to kill 1 wolf night 1? Well, yes... if they can be the center of an alliance. Clearly that isn't the case...

So, yea. Its possible... but the return seems so low. The cons outweigh the pros... just doesn't seem worth it. AND, who would be willing to sacrifice themselves night 1? Look what happened when I got Alain killed last game. He flipped a HUGE bitch to me, and he was going to be lynched either way.

Same with the eb thing. With 4 wolves, you can't possibly have a plan THAT dumb.

[talisman]

I'm not going back on it at all... what are you talking about? I said eb should be the only one to come out, not matt's partner, and that's what happened.

It's true that there's no way to confirm that a person who's by themself is human, but after a few days have gone by you can pretty much assume that they're telling the truth. No wolf wolfs another wolf night two or three... and I doubt it happened night one, especially after my pm.

I'm not going to reveal my partner to him at least until everyone's had a chance to check in on the thread in the long shot that eb's faking it. Do I think he is? no but caution doesn't hurt.

[FishFishRevolution]

At this point I'm going to say that I trust eb because he's not ballsy enough to do it as a wolf.

TPS, it's never safe to assume you're just being TPS--ever. But yet again you're pulling your Day 1 routine. I'll wait until I see more to judge one way or another.

[evilbutterfly]

At this point I'm going to say that I trust eb because he's not ballsy enough to do it as a wolf.

You have no idea what you're talking about. The only reason I wouldn't do this as a wolf was because I didn't realize that the lone green was special, hence my anger at being the lone green. Now that I realize I'm the center of things...w00t!

And uh, we always say to wait for a while before coming out, but seriously, WHO THE HELL EVER COMES OUT!? Honestly, the most I expect from anybody right now is a fucking retarded mystery PM from some pussy like TPS. Fuck that, you might as well come out to me now so I have time to look at the list and see who is who. Plus, I might be going home at some point this weekend, and there I'll have less time to do TWG. If you come out after this and say it's a wolfy rush to get info: fuck you, I'm not a wolf. (lol I've been domineering lately)

Besides, I already know who the guardian is and like, 4-6 people (I forget XD) have come out (due to one partner telling the pair), +4 or whatever wolves, even if I was a wolf and didn't know the guardian already, I have it pretty much narrowed down. So just stop being pansies and dive in. I'd like to at least have the other half of the pairs confirm what one has already said.

PS: If any of you idiots vote for/lynch me and if the guardian fails to protect me tonight, I will fucking come to your house and murder you in your sleep.

[GuidoHunter]

So, lemme get this straight.

If nobody else comes out as the lone green, eb becomes the center of the alliance and, for all intents and purposes, a confirmed human. Only bad possibility is if matt came out as the lone human to someone on eb's wolf team. This, however wouldn't be a problem, because that would leave nobody widowed. In order to check this, everyone could come out stating that their partners are alive. No green would lie and a wolf lying would...okay, the third wolf would come out as the widowed. Damn.

Well, the odds of that situation are mighty low, even though n00bs have come out to players in the past. Like last game, though, I'm disinclined to believe that that happened.

The only other problem with the widower coming out, as was mentioned, was if the wolf team wolfed one of their own members just to get in with eb. There's no guarantee that the wolves would get the guardian's identity from eb even if they did that. The only sure thing to gain from it is being buddy-buddy with eb, which isn't worth losing a team member, as far as I'm concerned.

Aaaaand I've taken too long to compose this post and have lost my train of thought. So as to avoid losing this by accidentally closing my browser, I'll just post this much now.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[nickadeemus]

Just got back from a 27-person hold-em tournament where someone dodged my bullets on the river to take me out at 9th place, so I'm still a little steamy.

About matt-
Confusion kill? Maybe. I can't judge how he would have played during this game, but just on the fact that he and I are TWG noobs means that killing either of us is not a big advantage for the wolves; hence my suspicion. This is one time I hope my suspicion is wrong and matt WAS just a confusion kill. If there was a higher purpose to his death, I can't help but feel threatened being the only inexperienced player left.

The lone green scenarios seem to have been beaten to death by a few other people, and I'm fine with believing that matt was not the lone green and eb is. I didn't see matt online at all today, and the fact that he lives on another continent (and is sleeping when most people are online here) makes me almost certain he didn't 'slip-up' to anyone on AIM. For now and hopefully for the rest of the game, my trust is with you, eb.

Now excuse me while I put my bad beat on replay in my head.

[Afrobean]

nickadeemus.

If I recall, wolves tend to talk about the night 1 kill in the way that nick just did.

[lightdarkness]

so are we going to eb or what? I'm getting really bored :'(

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by lightdarkness

so are we going to eb or what?

I just did. eb seems a bit sketchy, but I really don't think that the lone green could be known to be dead by the wolves and I don't believe that ANYONE in this game would risk a 1/12 on the lone green having been the night 1 kill.

[nforcer06164]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

nickadeemus.

If I recall, wolves tend to talk about the night 1 kill in the way that nick just did.

Are you really sure about that? Because I was going to point out the exact same thing: matt was a confusion kill (or even a safe kill, I thought), and he was not the lone green. I thought that was already a given by now, which is why I did not post it. Remember that nick is new at this game, so, he's going to point out everything he sees and get involved as much as he can. Give him a bit more credit that that; if he is a wolf, I think his three other partners would give him a bit of guidance for his posts.

[mattc16]

Ah well, good luck guys!

[nforcer06164]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

eb seems a bit sketchy

• insanelikeafish: afro is rubbing me the wrong way
  nforcer06164: Afro may still be sore from not being chosen as a host...
  nforcer06164: if you've checked the Dumbass nominations lately.
  insanelikeafish: yeah
  insanelikeafish: i saw that
  insanelikeafish: haha
  nforcer06164: whoa, wait.
  nforcer06164: I just realized something afro said.
  nforcer06164: eb seems a bit sketchy,
  nforcer06164: uh, how?
  insanelikeafish: yeah
  insanelikeafish: that's what did it for me

I just noticed Afro's statement after talking to fish (he's not my mason partner, by the way). How could eb be sketchy? There's almost zero chance for eb to be a wolf.

I'm also going to try to patch us a few loose ends we may have here... After going over Talisman's post, I realize I must have misread it. But, I also realized that having a "back-up plan" by including matt's partner is a VERY bad idea. Though it's unlikely, a wolf could come to eb privately over AIM and state that he is the widowed green, whether or not a green or wolf was actually wolfed. That is, if only the wolf goes to eb, he has wiggled his way into the alliance. It could also happen that the widowed green does go to eb, but the a wolf comes back saying, "Hell no, I'm the widowed green." Chaos ensues. Which is why an alliance other than what we have with the masons and guardian+eb may be problematic.

Remember, I'm only putting out possibilities here. I discussed this with fish, and he believes that it's highly unlikely, but I think a wolf trying something new like this could only be an advantage. It may sound stupid to some of you, but just think of what my intentions are here.

[FishFishRevolution]

FishFishRevolution: of course we have lying wolves
nforcer06164: see, even if the widowed green does come out to eb, what happens if a wolf comes to eb by saying, "aw hell no, I'm the widowed green."?
FishFishRevolution: right
FishFishRevolution: i'm saying
nforcer06164: then we have an even bigger problem
FishFishRevolution: why in HELL would they do that
FishFishRevolution: no that isn't a problem at all
FishFishRevolution: a wolf would never put himself on the spot light
FishFishRevolution: because we either kill the widowed mason or him
FishFishRevolution: 50/50 there
FishFishRevolution: and even if he's not killed Day 1
FishFishRevolution: there's cardflipping
FishFishRevolution: (isn't there?)
nforcer06164: let me check...
FishFishRevolution: no
FishFishRevolution: there isn't
FishFishRevolution: but there is a psychic
FishFishRevolution: so same thing
nforcer06164: no there isn't.
FishFishRevolution: wait
nforcer06164: there's a guardian.
FishFishRevolution: oh you're right
nforcer06164: that's the only blue.
nforcer06164: that's why it would work.
FishFishRevolution: still
FishFishRevolution: we could kill them both
FishFishRevolution: no biggie
FishFishRevolution: i stand by my conviction that no sane wolf would put himself in that much shit
nforcer06164: I'm not saying it would happen
nforcer06164: I'm saying it is a possibility.
12:40 PM
FishFishRevolution: and i'm saying it's a very low possibility
FishFishRevolution: so low that i'm not worried about it
nforcer06164: fair enough.

Just to elaborate on why it wouldn't work.

[blahblah18]

silly kill except for the idea that kept being floated around pregame of a break being a pure randomization of people killed each night. I'm not entirely sure of A) this backup plan by talisman (as brought up by others) B) the need for it (shouldn't the guardian jstu be guarding EB?)

That said, there's not too much more to go on right now until people say more and try something

[nforcer06164]

I was also thinking about this... blah mentioned that the guardian should be guarding eb, but what's the difference between guarding him and someone else? I mean, of course guarding a confirmed human is a good idea, but it's just the same alliance as any other one because we all have disconnected alliances of 2 people right now. If the guardian happens to successfully guard someone else, then we potentially have a four person alliance. I'm not saying that the guardian should not guard eb. In fact, it's highly unlikely that this scenario could happen. I'm just throwing out an idea here.

[blahblah18]

you know what, thinking about it, I go back to ADVOCATING RELEASING ALL THE TEAMS IN THE FORUM.
The harm is that theoreticalyl the wolves can not kiill 2 people of the same team .. A. that is an incredibly small chance of happening, and not the most devastating to overall utility anyways
vs
We all have tne knowledge of al lthe teams and can see how epople interact and if we spot a wolf, we all can base it fof the character of the other person.

To reiterate, I am now STRONGLY for us all posting our teams in publicly