04-30-2020, 04:33 PM | #2181 |
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
yeah most like scum rn for me are haku and bolth after dbp
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04-30-2020, 04:37 PM | #2182 |
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
Great, now I have to entertain DBP/ShadoWolfe/leetic.
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04-30-2020, 04:39 PM | #2183 |
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
Prob not revisiting Duskfall until game is over because the guy seems to actually be upset by my play.
That helps clear FFA a bit too.
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04-30-2020, 04:41 PM | #2184 |
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
at this point I'm convinced it's just this running gag where leetic keeps voting me because they think I'll eventually be a wolf
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04-30-2020, 04:45 PM | #2185 |
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
Would you be surprised if MML Godfather or you're pretty sure that's town almost every time ?
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04-30-2020, 04:46 PM | #2186 |
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
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04-30-2020, 04:47 PM | #2187 |
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
it would be a more favorable conclusion for MML than them actually being this bullheaded
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04-30-2020, 04:50 PM | #2188 | |
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
Quote:
Considering the Xiz case and how his game unfolded, I wonder if he's just tunnelling stuff on purpose.
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04-30-2020, 04:51 PM | #2189 |
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
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04-30-2020, 04:51 PM | #2190 |
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
I have trouble to take your 0.06% chance thing seriously.
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04-30-2020, 04:52 PM | #2191 |
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
want to put something more tangible on these odds?
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04-30-2020, 04:53 PM | #2192 |
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
0.06% chance is a reasonable amount when it comes to the odds of the setup.
It's not like a setup has 99.4% chance to appear and it's between those two. It's some big number splitted between a ton of scenarios.
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04-30-2020, 04:58 PM | #2193 |
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
The activity makes me sad for a game that's 2 hours from EoD.
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04-30-2020, 05:00 PM | #2194 |
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
leetic didnt do maths right btw given the info we know, assuming leetics claim is also correct the odds of there being exactly 3 Cs in the setup is actually
~5.25 percent |
04-30-2020, 05:01 PM | #2195 |
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
The real joke is why you guys keep asking me to do setup things.
If anything, I'm usually the one that somehow get things wrong.
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04-30-2020, 05:02 PM | #2196 |
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
wait i also did my maths wrong i think its like 1 percent
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04-30-2020, 05:03 PM | #2197 | |
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
Quote:
Moreover, the only evidence Mikey has really brought up against DBP is his cop check. Mathematically speaking, it is much easier to believe DBP. |
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04-30-2020, 05:05 PM | #2198 |
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
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04-30-2020, 05:05 PM | #2199 | |
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
Quote:
The binomial probability of rolling 3 Cs out of 7, where the chance of each C is 1/10, is roughly 2.296% I cheated tho I used a calculator https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx
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04-30-2020, 05:06 PM | #2200 | |
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
Quote:
- we already know two of the letters so we are rolling for 2 things in a subset of 5 -we arent selecting in a set number, you are calculating the odds of a setup being rolled in an exact order, not being rolled at all |
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