jTWG XLVI: Chicago

[argo15]

Originally Posted by sc979

So argo trusts dorama without ever talking to him

I don't trust him, I jst really think he's the real seer.

Originally Posted by sc979

thinks xplay is lying and that trav is human. When shadow votes for him, he tells shadow to listen to xplay instead and lynch trav?

I do think xplay is lying, but why the hell would shadw vote for me if he thinks xplay is not lying?

[sc979]

Okay, I might need more time to think things over, I'd remove my vote if I could, but since I can't, I'll safety on megamon. But either trav or shadow should be lynched to prove the real seer.

[Kekeb]

Originally Posted by travman301

This counter claim BS only helps our cause.

Thanks to you xplay, we don't need to kill the real seer to get the wolf imposter out.

You seem to have forgotten that there is a psychic in this game as well.

All we have to do is lynch either shadow or xplay, wait for the psych. to give us the results, and thats two wolves down already.

You seem to have forgotten if you are a human, xplay is a wolf or dumb human. Notice how he doesn't put himself on the line, but he does put the supposed seer and shadow on the block. We simply have to lynch Trav, it won't hurt us too much. If trav was a human he would have bonded with the real seer, also if he was blue he would have came out to the real seer (unless he's waiting for 2 counter claims, which is moronic)

[Kekeb]

If trav is a wolf, the counter claim was probably put out there because he knew the real seer would most likely seer him. Just look at his sketchy as hell behavior at the beginning of the game, who wouldn't seer him.

[DrKirth]

Here's my list of possible voting targets:

dorama
xplayfan
travman
argo
shadowdevil


Now, since we have a psychic, it's in our best interests to test who the real seer is. So, scratch out dorama and xplayfan, since they should both stay alive until the test is complete. I'm opting out shadowdevil, because I think he's human, as I explained in my previous post. Argo is acting rather strange, but lynching him will not confirm who the real seer is, so remove him from the list.

So, I'm basically reiterating what Kekeb is saying: we should vote out travman to see who the real seer is.

[Sh4d0wD3v1L]

Originally Posted by DrKirth

All right, I'm going to get this thought out into the open. I don't think that shadow is a wolf at all. Consider the portion of the conversation that trav, argo, and dorama are all voting him for:


Notice that shadow starts to mull over the offer once trav tells him sully agreed to the plan I name "trav is green and wants to help the wolves win". Now, if shadow is a wolf, one of the following two scenarios would have occurred:

1: Sully is a wolf, so shadow thinks, "Well trav's right that sully is a wolf, and he told me sully agreed to his plan, so I better think it over."

2: Sully is not a wolf, so shadow thinks, "Hah trav is pulling up some bull****, since I know who all the wolves are and sully is not one of them. I'm not going to consider this plan at all."

We know that shadow thought about the proposal. So, if shadow is a wolf, sully must be too by this logic. If sully is not a wolf, then shadow must not be a wolf.

Personally, I don't think sully is a wolf at all, and I know there's others that agree on this point, including argo. So why, then, argo, are you still strongly considering to vote for shadow? To think that he is a wolf is to think sully is a wolf as well. It strikes me as odd that you would overlook this detail, and the same goes for travman.

Very true. I had never thought of it this way...Good point.
Kekeb, I also agree that lynching trav would show the real seer, but you also must consider the fact that it is possible the psychic will have a counterclaim. Let's just say trav is red. He was seered red, only the psychic knows that he is really red when he gets the readings. What happens if someone says "I am psychic, trav is green, kill xplay"?

[Sh4d0wD3v1L]

I'll be on aim for about another 30 minutes and then will be gone most of the weekend, I'll be minimally on forums and not on aim at all..... If someone would answer my question in my last post, I might flip-flop again (I feel dumb....never voting early again).

[argo15]

Originally Posted by Sh4d0wD3v1L

Very true. I had never thought of it this way...Good point.
Kekeb, I also agree that lynching trav would show the real seer, but you also must consider the fact that it is possible the psychic will have a counterclaim. Let's just say trav is red. He was seered red, only the psychic knows that he is really red when he gets the readings. What happens if someone says "I am psychic, trav is green, kill xplay"?

If that is the case, we will have 6 people of 2 groups
seer, human, psychic
wolf, wolf, wolf

It would probably screw the wolves over.

[Sh4d0wD3v1L]

What happens if we lynch the real psychic first? Then the wolves have control of that, and can lie as much as they want to protect themselves...

[DrKirth]

Well, we shouldn't be lynching a psychic anyways in the first place, lol.

[Sh4d0wD3v1L]

LOL True Kirth, but if a wolf claims psychic, and the human claims psychic, how hard will it be to tell real from fake, and if we don't lynch, 1 wolf stays alive...

[DrKirth]

Well, that means two of the three wolves are faking roles, quite risky if you ask me. I think we'll have to think about it should the situation arise, since it's likely that it won't.

[argo15]

Ok this will be hypothetical if we get 2 psychic claims.

right now, 13 people 6 suspects (trav, dorama, shadow, xplay, psychic 1, psychic 2)
lynch suspect
night 2, 12 people 5 suspects
someone gets wolfed
day 2, 11 people 5 suspects
lynch suspect
night 2, 10 people 4 suspects
someone gets wolfed
day 2, 9 people 4 suspects
lynch suspect
night 3, 8 people 3 suspects
someone gets wolfed
day 2, 7 people 3 suspects
lynch suspect
night 3, 6 people 2 suspects
someone gets wolfed
day 3, 5 people 2 suspects
lynch suspect
night 4, 4 people 1 suspect
someone gets wolfed
day 5, 3 people 1 suspects
lynch suspect
2 people 0 suspects

If the wolves counterclaim a psychic we win by day 5.

[sc979]

yeah, lito already said it, if there are 2 psychic claims, we should lynch both.

But it probably won't happen. The human to wolf ratio in this game is 4.67:1 instead of 4:1, so the wolves probably won't try it.

[Kekeb]

There is also the fact that lito could have been the psychic.

[Sh4d0wD3v1L]

I see........But what happens if one of the wolves is not a suspect?

[Sh4d0wD3v1L]

Good point Kekeb, it is possible we have no psychic anymore....

[DrKirth]

Originally Posted by Kekeb

There is also the fact that lito could have been the psychic.

Nah, I'm thinking he was a human from his aim chat with sully about the human PM. It would be a stretch for Lito to have knowledge of the human PM before the game really started.

[sc979]

blah, I did the math wrong on that. But you get the point.

[Kekeb]

Kirth: Aim please?