FFR poker league -dead- - Page 10

**Plan_Bsk81127** · 02-4-2011, 11:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reach

I like this hand, personally: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkmc1lG3N4w

Reasons:

1. It has happened to me before
2. It makes me feel better seeing it happen to Ivey

3. Commentators orgasming @ 2:30 = lmao.

I F'in lol'd at this part. XD

**nois-or-e** · 02-5-2011, 12:24 AM

Completely unrelated, but I keep reading all of reach's posts in Sheldons voice. . .

**awein999** · 02-5-2011, 12:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reach

I like this hand, personally: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkmc1lG3N4w

Reasons:

1. It has happened to me before
2. It makes me feel better seeing it happen to Ivey

3. Commentators orgasming @ 2:30 = lmao.

I'm guessing what this is without clicking. Phil Ivey, Patrick Antonious, Tom Dwan playing three handed. Tom dwan has 67 suited phil ivey has A2. flop has 3 and 5. Turn is 4 with no flushes on board. And they get all 1.1 million in the pot. Ivey drawing dead. Biggest pot in televised poker history.

Am I right? lolz.

rparty89 · 02-5-2011, 09:10 AM

sweet i'll join (not sure to use as a username)

**ddrmaniacaaa** · 02-5-2011, 09:43 AM

Best laydown?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8go5N...eature=related

**Reach** · 02-5-2011, 10:37 AM

That hand is pretty sick. I can't ever recommend laying down there though. Even if I'm suspicious of being beat there, which I would be in that scenario, I'm still calling. It's obvious he isn't bluffing, but he could be raising there with a straight or a 10 for value against hands with say, an ace in them, which might call there.

I mean, do the math with ranges here. Clearly a call is better than a fold unless you have a soul read.

Hands he's raising that have you beat: AA, KK and TT.
Hands he's raising that don't have you beat: AT, KT, JT, AQ, KQ, QQ, QJ, QT, and maybe even T9 if he's a loose player.
I'll exclude bluffs here because only a tard would bluff there when the other guy leads on the river.

Ergo, you're probably right on your call some 75% of the time here, and in terms of pot odds you only need to be right about 30% of the time here for the call to be profitable.

But the fact that he laid it down correctly is pretty damn impressive. Then again, I never would have checked that hand down like that in the first place, so. It's an interesting board to lead with there if you have jacks, and the guy with kings almost had to bet there. Sure, not betting is sneaky, but when you do bet it's hard to get paid off.

**lumphoboextreme** · 02-5-2011, 01:51 PM

he would've made that same raise to 6k with just a queen for the straight lols

**Reincarnate** · 02-5-2011, 08:31 PM

That 1 in 2.7 billion statistic seemed too retardedly high for that sort of situation -- I wasted a good part of my day trying to figure out how the hell they got that figure and what I would calculate instead.

One huge thing about multiplayer Poker probabilities I failed to really take into account earlier is that you have to really have to be careful and account for overlaps. Since there is a finite deck and a shared pool of community cards, you can't just calculate an independent probability and overlap it. Sometimes certain play situations have different implications based on the fact that you have a finite deck and only so many ways a particular play can be distributed.

So I *think* this is what they did to get 1 in 2.7 billion, but also why I disagree with it:

P(player holds KJ of a like suit) = (4 choose 1)/(52 choose 2)
P(other player holds AA, but of a different suit from the KJ) = (3 choose 2)/(50 choose 2)

The remaining 5 cards must include remaining 2 aces, the relevant queen, the relevant 10, and a random kicker. We know what those remaining two aces must be, and we also know what the relevant queen and 10 must be, so that means the kicker can take on 52 - 4 hole cards - 4 necessary conditionals = 44 possibilities.

Given that there are 44 possibilities for this situation out of (48 choose 5) cards left for the flop, turn, and river, and multiplying this entire thing by 2 (since there are 2 ways for all of this to occur -- to either player 1 or player 2), that means the probability is:

2*((4 choose 1)/(52 choose 2)*(3 choose 2)/(50 choose 2)*44/(48 choose 5)) = 3.7966751 * 10^(-10) or 1 in 2,633,883,525 which I think they rounded up to 2.7 billion.

But really this just assumes you start out with something like KJ when really you can start out with KQ, KT, QK, QT, or JT, too (therefore bringing it up from (4 choose 1) to 6*(4 choose 1), rendering the rest of the calculations to be the same due to the necessary conditions of the remaining 5 cards, changing the probability to 2*(6*(4 choose 1)/(52 choose 2)*(3 choose 2)/(50 choose 2)*44/(48 choose 5)) = 2.27800506 * 10^(-9) or 1 in 438,980,588, which seems a lot more reasonable to me.

**Reach** · 02-5-2011, 09:17 PM

I'm not actually sure how to calculate that probability, but it's not really that important. The more important point is most people can expect to never have that happen to them in their entire poker career. Even players that have played millions of hands never run into a scenario like that.

I have encountered, thus far, quads over quads (Twice. Won one, lost the other ), but never straight flush over straight flush, or straight flush over quads.

Edit: After pondering it, I'm pretty sure you're right Rubix. About both the actual value and where the original came from.

**awein999** · 02-6-2011, 02:07 AM

At a casino I had pocket nines and flop was 4 9 A rainbow and guy had pocket A's.

A week ago one of my friends had quad 8's while his opponent had a straight flush. Opponent flopped straight flush. And he ran into three of a kind on the turn, and then the quads on the river. Pretty sick.

**Reincarnate** · 02-6-2011, 11:14 AM

this is hilarious
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIo-2...eature=related

**awein999** · 02-6-2011, 11:24 AM

Why Phil Laak is my favorite personality in poker: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pD-63PHMGbo

**Reach** · 02-6-2011, 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reincarnate

this is hilarious
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIo-2...eature=related

God, that was a stupid call. You're never ahead. You're pretty much always a significant underdog to win, and Bellande isn't giving him good odds (you shouldn't be calling this unless you're ahead more than 40% of the time)

This is the reason I prefer cash games over tournaments. If someone does this to me I'll laugh and re-buy. I can feel Bellande's pain here, as I've ran into a lot of these thus far in tourneys.

Quote:

Why Phil Laak is my favorite personality in poker: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pD-63PHMGbo

Dwan and Blom are really, really notorious for doing this type of super-range merging type bets.

e.g. here he does the exact same thing and gets phil to pay him off: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kg0kd...eature=related

This is why I would never, ever want to play Dwan heads up in NLHE lmao. Nor Viktor Blom, or Daniel Cates. All of those guys are just retardedly good.

**Reincarnate** · 02-6-2011, 11:43 AM

Wow WTF is up with this Hellmuth guy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99-jcla0MHc

**awein999** · 02-6-2011, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reincarnate

Wow WTF is up with this Hellmuth guy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99-jcla0MHc

Emotional when things don't go his way. HUGE ego. Tight aggressive. Good at manipulating lesser skilled players, good at reading lesser skilled players. Doesn't compete very well against former professionals in general.

edit: Known for his success in tournaments.

**Reach** · 02-6-2011, 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reincarnate

Wow WTF is up with this Hellmuth guy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99-jcla0MHc

Phil does make at least one point. Having 'special hands' and putting your money in with junk like that is retarded and superstitious nonsense that will leave you a busted donk.

However, Hellmuth deserves pretty much any punishment he gets for being so bad mannered.

With that said, I firmly feel like a lot of what this guy does is purely hyperbole for show. He puts on a show wherever he goes, and that's partially why he's so famous. He has a lot of tournament wins in the past, but if he didn't blow up all the time, nobody would really pay attention to him. As such, he's probably a nice guy off camera. I'm willing to bet it's mostly a show.

**Reincarnate** · 02-6-2011, 12:26 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCpuu...eature=related

0:35

"Meltdown in 3... 2... 1..."

lmfao

**TC_Halogen** · 02-6-2011, 12:28 PM

I'm still a big fan of Joseph Hachem. He's proof that a ton of patience with a short-stack can make you a winner (like his win in the 2005 WSOP, coming into the final table as a major underdog). I definitely idolize him.

**Reach** · 02-6-2011, 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TC_Halogen

I'm still a big fan of Joseph Hachem. He's proof that a ton of patience with a short-stack can make you a winner (like his win in the 2005 WSOP, coming into the final table as a major underdog). I definitely idolize him.

Hate to say it, but a ton of luck can make anyone a winner.

Hachem is pretty good, but he luckboxed that win. Joe Hachem one time'd about a hundred times too many (I'm with daniel here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JcfGlVBYE8 )

Not that every main event winner didn't luckbox their way there. The best players never win the main event, but that's precisely why I wouldn't idolize them. In a tournament with a structure like that without re-buys, it's simply inevitable that the luckiest player wins.

if you're going to idolize a tournament player, at least idolize someone like Ivey that has been showing good results for years on end.

**TC_Halogen** · 02-6-2011, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reach

Hate to say it, but a ton of luck can make anyone a winner.

Hachem is pretty good, but he luckboxed that win. Joe Hachem one time'd about a hundred times too many.

Not that every main event winner didn't luckbox their way there. The best players never win the main event, but that's precisely why I wouldn't idolize them. In a tournament with a structure like that without re-buys, it's simply inevitable that the luckiest player wins.

if you're going to idolize a tournament player, at least idolize someone like Ivey that has been showing good results for years on end.

About Hachem though: while he did draw a good amount of winnings from his 2005 WSOP win, he's also racked up a good amount more since then. I just happen to like his confidence and how collected he usually is at the table, even when he loses.

Nothing wrong with going for some bigger names who have one a lot of money; Phil Ivey definitely knows how to keep winning over and over again. I just don't find myself as interested in him, though.

Actually, now that I think about it, I totally forgot about Greg Raymer. Another pretty great player, who's been remaining under the radar.

Also, just found this article. Just caught my interest a bit.

02-5-2011, 12:24 AM	#182
nois-or-e SponCon Aficionado Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: doot~ Age: 38 Posts: 3,250	Re: FFR poker league -ongoing- Completely unrelated, but I keep reading all of reach's posts in Sheldons voice. . . __________________

02-5-2011, 09:10 AM	#184
rparty89 FFR Player Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 618	Re: FFR poker league -ongoing- sweet i'll join (not sure to use as a username) __________________ Last edited by rparty89; 02-5-2011 at 09:15 AM..

02-5-2011, 09:43 AM	#185
ddrmaniacaaa FFR Veteran Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Dublin, Ohio Age: 34 Posts: 126	Re: FFR poker league -ongoing- Best laydown? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8go5N...eature=related

02-5-2011, 10:37 AM	#186
Reach FFR Simfile Author Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Canada Age: 37 Posts: 7,471	Re: FFR poker league -ongoing- That hand is pretty sick. I can't ever recommend laying down there though. Even if I'm suspicious of being beat there, which I would be in that scenario, I'm still calling. It's obvious he isn't bluffing, but he could be raising there with a straight or a 10 for value against hands with say, an ace in them, which might call there. I mean, do the math with ranges here. Clearly a call is better than a fold unless you have a soul read. Hands he's raising that have you beat: AA, KK and TT. Hands he's raising that don't have you beat: AT, KT, JT, AQ, KQ, QQ, QJ, QT, and maybe even T9 if he's a loose player. I'll exclude bluffs here because only a tard would bluff there when the other guy leads on the river. Ergo, you're probably right on your call some 75% of the time here, and in terms of pot odds you only need to be right about 30% of the time here for the call to be profitable. But the fact that he laid it down correctly is pretty damn impressive. Then again, I never would have checked that hand down like that in the first place, so. It's an interesting board to lead with there if you have jacks, and the guy with kings almost had to bet there. Sure, not betting is sneaky, but when you do bet it's hard to get paid off. __________________ Last edited by Reach; 02-5-2011 at 06:47 PM..

02-5-2011, 01:51 PM	#187
lumphoboextreme FFR Veteran Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Age: 33 Posts: 8,592	Re: FFR poker league -ongoing- he would've made that same raise to 6k with just a queen for the straight lols __________________

02-5-2011, 08:31 PM	#188
Reincarnate x'); DROP TABLE FFR;-- Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 6,332	Re: FFR poker league -ongoing- That 1 in 2.7 billion statistic seemed too retardedly high for that sort of situation -- I wasted a good part of my day trying to figure out how the hell they got that figure and what I would calculate instead. One huge thing about multiplayer Poker probabilities I failed to really take into account earlier is that you have to really have to be careful and account for overlaps. Since there is a finite deck and a shared pool of community cards, you can't just calculate an independent probability and overlap it. Sometimes certain play situations have different implications based on the fact that you have a finite deck and only so many ways a particular play can be distributed. So I think this is what they did to get 1 in 2.7 billion, but also why I disagree with it: P(player holds KJ of a like suit) = (4 choose 1)/(52 choose 2) P(other player holds AA, but of a different suit from the KJ) = (3 choose 2)/(50 choose 2) The remaining 5 cards must include remaining 2 aces, the relevant queen, the relevant 10, and a random kicker. We know what those remaining two aces must be, and we also know what the relevant queen and 10 must be, so that means the kicker can take on 52 - 4 hole cards - 4 necessary conditionals = 44 possibilities. Given that there are 44 possibilities for this situation out of (48 choose 5) cards left for the flop, turn, and river, and multiplying this entire thing by 2 (since there are 2 ways for all of this to occur -- to either player 1 or player 2), that means the probability is: 2((4 choose 1)/(52 choose 2)(3 choose 2)/(50 choose 2)44/(48 choose 5)) = 3.7966751 10^(-10) or 1 in 2,633,883,525 which I think they rounded up to 2.7 billion. But really this just assumes you start out with something like KJ when really you can start out with KQ, KT, QK, QT, or JT, too (therefore bringing it up from (4 choose 1) to 6(4 choose 1), rendering the rest of the calculations to be the same due to the necessary conditions of the remaining 5 cards, changing the probability to 2(6(4 choose 1)/(52 choose 2)(3 choose 2)/(50 choose 2)44/(48 choose 5)) = 2.27800506 10^(-9) or 1 in 438,980,588, which seems a lot more reasonable to me.

02-5-2011, 09:17 PM	#189
Reach FFR Simfile Author Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Canada Age: 37 Posts: 7,471	Re: FFR poker league -ongoing- I'm not actually sure how to calculate that probability, but it's not really that important. The more important point is most people can expect to never have that happen to them in their entire poker career. Even players that have played millions of hands never run into a scenario like that. I have encountered, thus far, quads over quads (Twice. Won one, lost the other ), but never straight flush over straight flush, or straight flush over quads. Edit: After pondering it, I'm pretty sure you're right Rubix. About both the actual value and where the original came from. __________________ Last edited by Reach; 02-5-2011 at 09:24 PM..

02-6-2011, 11:14 AM	#191
Reincarnate x'); DROP TABLE FFR;-- Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 6,332	Re: FFR poker league -ongoing- this is hilarious http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIo-2...eature=related

02-6-2011, 11:43 AM	#194
Reincarnate x'); DROP TABLE FFR;-- Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 6,332	Re: FFR poker league -ongoing- Wow WTF is up with this Hellmuth guy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99-jcla0MHc

02-6-2011, 12:26 PM	#197
Reincarnate x'); DROP TABLE FFR;-- Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 6,332	Re: FFR poker league -ongoing- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCpuu...eature=related 0:35 "Meltdown in 3... 2... 1..." lmfao

02-6-2011, 12:28 PM	#198
TC_Halogen Rhythm game specialist. Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Bel Air, Maryland Age: 32 Posts: 19,376	Re: FFR poker league -ongoing- I'm still a big fan of Joseph Hachem. He's proof that a ton of patience with a short-stack can make you a winner (like his win in the 2005 WSOP, coming into the final table as a major underdog). I definitely idolize him.

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