TWG CXXXIV: C9++: The Last of You GAME THREAD

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CXXXIV: C9++: The Last of You GAME THREAD

My calculation was erroneous, I'll give you that.



you flatter me
I mean, it's not like you said you had a 93% confidence interval of Red Blaster being the final wolf in last game. Am I not allowed to give percentages based on my certainty? (this is in reference to me discussing blind, not the 50% stat I gave earlier which is blatantly wrong)



It will be no more than a shot in the dark, as we don't know if certain roles were roleblocked, unused, etc.
To restate the obvious, the only thing we know at this point is an Innocent Child and the possibility of a mason pair. That's it. I don't expect this confidence to change any time soon.

I'm more critiquing not the use of percentages but the use of percentages without showing or explaining your reasoning can u understand the difference

[Charles Claythorne]

Re: TWG CXXXIV: C9++: The Last of You GAME THREAD

Wait wait wait if you're serious why would you do that? With an Innocent Child role, unless there are two doctors (and maybe even if there are...), one of you is going to die during Night. If you're the one that's hit, then your mason partner can't really make a believable claim (and you run the risk of a wolf claiming mason instead), which will hurt the humans later down the line.

I'm assuming/hoping you're not serious.

Also, hi Mashi!

Hello!!!
I woke up like 15 minutes ago lol

There's a 95% chance he's fake claiming. Probably not alignment indicative at this point either.

Carry on.

95% chance

95% chance

theres a 95% chance that people who reference statistics are wolves btw. its science

roundbox

[choof]

Re: TWG CXXXIV: C9++: The Last of You GAME THREAD

1) Realizes claim of chance to have a mason bro pair is erroneous. Differs to V in an earlier game being explicitly certain about a wolf (irrelevant information).

realizes mistake in calculations, concedes that V is correct

2) He is fixated on getting an early jump on potential PR reads/innuendos to figure out the setup. Would a wolf be particularly noting what the setup might be before anything happened in game?

everyone is noting what the setup is, welcome to C9++, a semi open setup where winning generally depends on being able to figure out the setup
because if we get the setup, we know what wolves we have, and how to manipulate night actions and lynchs so the wolves get locked down

He was also 95% sure that Blind is bluffing about being a mason bro. Why are you holding back 5% certainty that Blind is bluffing? Does this mean that you are possibly considering him actually being a mason? Would Round know even the possibility that no masons are in game and he is referring to a dead end data point just because the Innocent Child is outed?

nothing is ever 100% certain in twg, the only thing that's certain in this game is the innocent child and that's only because there aren't fake ICs and this isn't a bastard setup

[_Zenith_]

Re: TWG CXXXIV: C9++: The Last of You GAME THREAD

Choof why are you defending him on those allegations?

[choof]

Re: TWG CXXXIV: C9++: The Last of You GAME THREAD

honestly i'm not sure what to think about zenith pinging out a player that's been known to be cold and calculating for being cold and calculating

[choof]

Re: TWG CXXXIV: C9++: The Last of You GAME THREAD

Choof why are you defending him on those allegations?

because he's playing better than you are

[_Zenith_]

Re: TWG CXXXIV: C9++: The Last of You GAME THREAD

Actually you aren't even defending him. You are more taking the allegations and applying them in a general direction of how C9++ works.

He needs to answer his motives for posting such material.

[_Zenith_]

Re: TWG CXXXIV: C9++: The Last of You GAME THREAD

because he's playing better than you are

And this is why I fucking cannot stand D0.

[choof]

Re: TWG CXXXIV: C9++: The Last of You GAME THREAD

sugoi ze hoho

[TWG King Dedede]

Re: TWG CXXXIV: C9++: The Last of You GAME THREAD

Hi this Nydus. English is not first language. Zenith wolf.

[_Zenith_]

Re: TWG CXXXIV: C9++: The Last of You GAME THREAD

Hi this Nydus. English is not first language. Zenith wolf.

ste zo mňa srandu

[TWG King Dedede]

Re: TWG CXXXIV: C9++: The Last of You GAME THREAD

I not understand

[roundbox]

Re: TWG CXXXIV: C9++: The Last of You GAME THREAD

I'm more critiquing not the use of percentages but the use of percentages without showing or explaining your reasoning can u understand the difference

yeah I understand your point, it was a valid call-out

theres a 95% chance that people who reference statistics are wolves btw. its science

roundbox

hi Mashi

[choof]

Re: TWG CXXXIV: C9++: The Last of You GAME THREAD

Hi this Nydus. English is not first language. Zenith wolf.

lmaooooo

[roundbox]

Re: TWG CXXXIV: C9++: The Last of You GAME THREAD

1) Realizes claim of chance to have a mason bro pair is erroneous. Differs to V in an earlier game being explicitly certain about a wolf (irrelevant information).

2) He is fixated on getting an early jump on potential PR reads/innuendos to figure out the setup. Would a wolf be particularly noting what the setup might be before anything happened in game?

He was also 95% sure that Blind is bluffing about being a mason bro. Why are you holding back 5% certainty that Blind is bluffing? Does this mean that you are possibly considering him actually being a mason? Would Round know even the possibility that no masons are in game and he is referring to a dead end data point just because the Innocent Child is outed?

1 - The erroneous part was the 50% statistic. Everything else was valid criticism.

2 - The only thing I've pondered so far is the fact that there MIGHT be a mason pair. Do I want the mason pair to claim? No. Never have I implied this. What other roles have I attempted to ping out? The game will go its natural course. Given the player pool I doubt anyone would show their hand this early as it would be detrimental to the team they serve.

3. I'm holding back the 5% because there is a slight chance he really is a mason. Completely dismissing the possibility would be wrong since it is still possible in the game's mechanics.