TWG CXX: Villains United

[TWG Maleficent]

hook because there's pretty much no difference between him and auto as far as info from a hero flip goes but oh my fucking god auto flipping villa would be the biggest waste of time ever

[TWG Maleficent]

fifth post to remind everyone with fewer than 20 posts to shoot some meth into their urethras

[TWG Auto]

Well my last post was started before your last post, so I didn't see it.

And of course I am caring about others who vote for me. It's just that apparently in the FFR meta defending yourself before you're L-1 is a hero-tell. Not to mention everyone's voting me for posts that I've either explained or attempted to explain. The case against me seems to be mainly due to me breaking the KitB, which has already been analyzed and really tells NOTHING about me. As I already explained, I thought Hans was for the hero. As for the Shere Khan vote, how come when others vote inactives to get them active they get nods of approval but when I do it it's suddenly a hero-tell?

[TWG Syndrome]

Originally Posted by TWG Maleficent

hook because there's pretty much no difference between him and auto as far as info from a hero flip goes but oh my fucking god auto flipping villa would be the biggest waste of time ever

So whats your course of action if hook flips villain? Are you agreeing with hades in this case that auto is clear?

[TWG Captain Hook]

Originally Posted by TWG Maleficent

hook because there's pretty much no difference between him and auto as far as info from a hero flip goes but oh my fucking god auto flipping villa would be the biggest waste of time ever

How is me flipping villa less of a waste? We're down two villains already, I'd like to try to focus more on who actually looks more like a hero rather than this "we'll get information if this person flips villa" stuff.

This day phase has given me a hero lean on Hades and since we're coming down to end of day I'm going to put my vote back there. I still don't like Syndrome but I don't feel I'll get any steam on that wagon. I'd also be good with a Gaston kill, I don't like the random voting, flying UTR stuff while still trying to make his presence known here and there.

I'm guessing no one was given that one shot kill last night?

[TWG Maleficent]

you can say a hero would never break a villa/villa split since on the surface they'd have nothing to gain
but what if there were more heroes voting for hook on d1 and auto splitting the vote makes more villains suspects?
what if you apply wifom logic so fucking hard that it suddenly only makes sense for a hero to arbitrarily break up villa/villa ties?

that said, i think the chance that auto is a villain if hook flips villa is significantly higher than 50% but he's definitely not clear
hook flipping villa brings more attention to his aggressors and further suggests looking at the people who went for third party candidates on d1

[TWG Maleficent]

Originally Posted by TWG Captain Hook

I'm guessing no one was given that one shot kill last night?

if there is a gunsmith, i REALLY fucking hope they didn't give anyone a gun last night
that kind of decision depends on a lot more than just hoping that someone is villa

[TWG Shere Khan]

Originally Posted by Auto

My biggest hero leans are Maleficient and Jafar, and then Hades, for reasons stated above or in previous posts. I'd rather see one of them go than Hades, but I'm not opposed to a Hades lynch.

I'm going to leave this here if and when Auto flips hero. Law of TWG averages always has one wolf in a list of 3 when listed by a fellow wolf-mate.

[TWG Syndrome]

Originally Posted by TWG Captain Hook

I still don't like Syndrome but I don't feel I'll get any steam on that wagon.

Starting to think you are a really new player and villain since you really think a hero would want to tunnel so early. It also explains your bad defensive stance in the first day. Still not completely sure about you though. I can vote you later if auto flips hero, but i dont want a hook flip to determine autos fate

[TWG Maleficent]

Originally Posted by TWG Auto

As for the Shere Khan vote, how come when others vote inactives to get them active they get nods of approval but when I do it it's suddenly a hero-tell?

simply put, it looked like a really shitty bandwagon

[TWG Captain Hook]

Originally Posted by TWG Syndrome

Starting to think you are a really new player and villain since you really think a hero would want to tunnel so early.

Lol because a wolf has never tunneled someone early game before right?

[TWG Cruella De Vil]

So let me preface this by saying it is always my modus operandii to focus on one person at a time until I get something from them I like enough to clear them. That failed us last phase, but I'm not a perfect wolf hunter. Nonetheless, it is my intent right now to convince you to lynch Hades and I don't feel ambivalent about that.

What I see from Hades that I really want you to consider is the phenomenon of sticking to his guns. It makes him appear confident, consistent, and clear, like saying "I Know Why I Think What I Think." In the normal course of every day life we find that quality attractive and trustworthy.

But a game of TWG has a lot of arguing, people getting emotionally invested in their opinions and typing as fast as they can to try to keep up with their thinking, huge swings in opinion and resolve, and just an overall constantly shifting landscape of opinions and reasons. I have played at least 50 games of TWG in my life and my personal level of certainty and my self-conception of how right I could be still waver and fluctuate constantly as villa because to be honest: no one method will ever consistently get you results and you end up always being more wrong than you are right. It takes a vigilant, insomniac, paranoiac attitude to win as villa, and you have to acknowledge your imperfections and failures but never let them get in the way of your attitude.

So what I really want is for you to review a few things that have been said by Hades:

I really thought we had something with Hans. Disappointing.

The last vote by Auto is probably one of two things: a Hero saving another Hero (Hook) from a lynch, or just a misguided/unlucky Villain breaking the tie.

I cannot imagine that a Hero Auto would save a Villain Hook from KITB. There is no potential upside from breaking the KITB. A Hero Auto would have known that breaking the tie would flip a green, and make him the center of attention for the next day phase.

If we lynch Auto today and he comes up Hero, Hook is almost certainly Hero
If we lynch Auto today and he comes up Villain, Hook could be either
If we lynch Hook today and he comes up Hero, Auto could be either
If we lynch Hook today and he comes up Villain, Auto is almost certainly Villain

I believe our lynches today should be between Hook and Auto, since they will give us the most information. Based on the above, if we lynch Hook, we either get a Hero or we clear Auto. If we lynch Auto we either double up, or we get nothing.

Because a Hook lynch is win-win, I vote for Hook. Either we get a Hero in hook, in which case we can re-evaluate an Auto lynch, or Hook comes up Villain and we can clear Auto.

According to Hades, the basis for choosing between Hook and Auto is that they will give us the most information.

The second can be seen as a way of selling the lynch. Calling it a "win-win" is coloring it in very fanciful language compared to the alternative. More on that later.

As for narrow little game theory diamonds of decision making, how do you expect to play this game? Based on broad sweeping generalizations and 'feelings' about other players?

After calling it a narrow game theory diamond, he defends this methodology of thinking and tries to make what I think is a character attack on my style of play (which he voted alongside with Hans the previous day and even used language like "I really thought we had something with Hans")

Who did you vote for again yesterday? (Don't answer this, it's rhetorical.)

Another character attack. Character attacks like these are always a tell for me because
1.) they don't provide anything for the other person to respond to (which he acknowledges, making that intentional). sometimes an insult coupled with a question is effective because you make the person feel guilty or stupid or something and then they want to answer the question to prove that they are not, but just attacking someone's character leads into:
2.) the main purpose of attacks like these is to get people to listen to the person they are attacking less because you feel threatened by them

If i can't base theory on motivation for actions, what can I base it on? Do you come into a game of TWG and assume that everyone will act in the most random manner possible and that the only way to catch Heroes is to catch them lying? If that is the case, I can point you to a number of games where Wolves use Human lies to push bad lynches through.

I chose Hook based on logic, not a 'game theory diamond'.

Interesting here is now what is he doing is ever-so-slightly shifting the purpose of his choices because I am insulting his method by calling it a "game theory diamond" but I'm also trying to get at the point that his diamond should lead him to vote Auto over Hook (it just seemed really salient to me, it would take me forever to suss out the statistics here but I think it is really salient to anyone who gives the thought experiment like 2 earnest minutes.)

I was genuinely suspicious of why he wouldn't want to go on Auto harder. It seemed contradictory and also it seemed that Auto was naturally in terms of the only stated opinions on the matter in the thread just an overall better bet. Auto's behavior is overtly a more wolfish thing to do, if Auto was a red then we would know Hook was also probably red.

What I found weird after this though was his drift away from this topic, like he somehow was uncomfortable going into more and more, and starting to focus on other people in the thread.

Because it seems like neither Hook nor Auto will be on the chopping block today, I will change my vote to Shere Khan until he posts something useful or gets replaced.

I stand by my logic, but it is only useful if we are choosing between Hook and Auto, which doesn't seem to be happening.

It's really important for him to note that he is standing by his logic here, so that he doesn't appear to be wavering or inconsistent, even when it's obviously clear that that logic has not done anything for him this phase, so much so that he needs to change his vote.

I am fine with a Gaston lynch, as I already stated, and will switch my vote to him because I am not a Hero and do not want to be in a two vote KITB.

Switches again, heavily rationalizing why he is switching but not why he is fine with a Gaston lynch.

When it starts to become clear that Auto has got a good chance of getting voted I say

wonder if hades will vote auto now

And we see

Absolutely. Auto

Because he has to stick by his convictions, even though in the post immediately previous to this he has gone from having 2 suspicions that he thinks will give us the most information and not deviated from point to having

Gaston and Clayton would have been my next two Hero leans, but now that Clayton was replaced I'm willing to give his replacement a chance, for now.

So, yes, Gaston is my third favorite. But the reason I changed my vote from Shere Khan was self preservation.

I would love to vote for Cruella or Syndrome, but I'm not convinced that they're not just stupid Villains.

HOLY SHIT YOU HAVE FOUR MORE SUSPICIONS NOW?!?! WHEN DID THIS HAPPEN??? WHAT EXACTLY HAVE THESE PEOPLE SUDDENLY DONE??

I mean if the case isn't obvious to you after reading this far I'm either really terrible at making my case or I'm just seeing a totally different game than you.

But anyways I want to address one more thing

I guess the other heroes could've told [Hades] to keep being a dumbass who doesn't bother reading into anything so that the only positive connection he has to anyone else in the game is with Hook. On the other hand, it's precisely because his posts are basically in their own little vacuum that he would be the worst mislynch possible next to Shere Khan.

The fact that his posts are basically in their own little vacuum is an indicator of possibly wolfhood. This is in no way of a defense of him. The only information that matters from a lynch is the information you get when you hit red. If you don't hit red the "information" is a pretty shitty consolation prize for wasting another 1/4 of your opportunities to fail when you need to win five times.

Posting in a vacuum is much easier than attacking people that you know are human.

Alright that's where I'm leaving it, boys. Strike true.

HADES

[TWG Gaston]

Xiz could we get a vote count again please?

[TWG Yzma]

wow

[TWG Yzma]

Idk if you're right Cruella but that's pretty compelling

[TWG Syndrome]

Originally Posted by TWG Yzma

wow

You forgot to quote and replace with wow and then vote for them.
Will definately read when i wont get interrupted though

[TWG Syndrome]

Originally Posted by TWG Sid Phillips

I'm suspicious because I voted for you for making a reads list a couple hours after the game started?

If by a couple hours, you mean a day? Sure.

[Xiz]

Vote Count: (10 to insta)




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No Vote:

[TWG Yzma]

Well in case day ends tonight Hades

Would like an extension though

[TWG Ursula]

after skimming it seems like Hades is the way to go