[roundbox]

One big thing that has contributed to my lack of effort the past 6 or so games that I've played is a damaged drive to play as well as me filling in games just to fill in slots so we have an active community. There are plenty of players that I haven't played with in a long time this game so I feel like that's some incentive to get off of my ass and actually do something. It's slowly becoming the HOT NEW MEME to say "yo roundbox you should post you fucker oMg" and it's pretty annoying. I get what you're all getting at, but let me continue rambling on about myself.

I was able to contribute some effort to previous games but the problem in my ability to solve them was the fact that my efforts were heavily rooted in meta, rather than individual game performance. I tried solving games almost exclusively using meta, because it only let me look at surface-level patterns rather than the small intricacies of someone's behavior in their initial posts to their later posts, tracking their intentions along the way. One big thing that always stood out to me when I actually sat down to SOLVE games was consistency of behavior from a player. There are a few players that I've attempted to observe some consistency (or lack thereof) which will be the focus of this post. Let me get some commentary done first, though.

Originally Posted by Xiz

k back to packing ill prob be here or not

!!HOLYSHIT!!
I feel like Xiz, as a whole, is playing in a disheveled manner because of his end of the year celebrations and a move. D0 will be your only exception for a close read on you, as nothing has stood out as terribly wolfy, but nothing has stood out as town. Yes, I know you stated you forgot a gimmick, but if anything this makes me a bit worried.

This post is a half-joke half-read. Yes, this may be hypocritical about the meta thing but I'm sure if there's a tone shift between disheveled D0 Xiz and his presence when actually settled will be one to note.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

This is Cordelia's wiki: http://fireemblem.wikia.com/wiki/Cordelia

If you look at the top it says "Cordelia in her support conversation with Sumia."

That means Sumia is very likely according to the lore to be in private chat with Cordelia.

This knowledge may lead to a disaster on whoever rolled Sumia.

If Sumia somehow dies, you're officially suspect #1 with me.

You're welcome.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Do you have a follow up to this based on what I just posted or you were saying this in a general sense with no further purpose?

I'm very interested by the former and if it's the latter, I'm not happy.

I'm saying this because that makes me question why you posted this the way you posted it.

Hakulyte's read on inDheart here seems to be misplaced. inDheart merely looked into the lore behind Cordelia and extended the discussion into possibilities about her character. inDheart just happened to be the first one to do so, and is a part of ACTUALLY SOLVING FROM INFORMATION WE HAVE instead of just extrapolating. He took the effort to do some research, rather than posting "hey is there a connection between Cordelia and another character ha ha look at me I'm a fucking town gamer."

Continuing on what I said about consistency, I feel like inDheart has kept a very consistent tone throughout this game. He has a very robotic tone for the most part and people might read this as emotionless and often times aloof.

Originally Posted by inDheart

threw together some reads. just removing people i have no basis to judge...actually i only ended up taking out cold kitten

1) Hakulyte - confirmed useful, wouldn't lynch today. haven't solved yet but i have an idea on how to do that

4) MixMasterLar - i think it's pretty consensus that people didn't like his reads post, but he has enough eau de FIGHT ME that he's not a d0 option for me

6) XelNya - town lean. he's posting real game thoughts and they're good oh my god. his unvote from MML is a little peculiar since the votes were not close to being a runaway wagon in a 16p game. maybe he can clarify what he means when he says haku/blind interactions are "arbitrary"?

7) roundbox - null pending MORE. he has reads and stuff, i've just yet to see it translate into action. less concerned with making things happen than manti is

8) Xiz - null. i almost deleted him as no basis to judge since he was behind and has been low-impact as a result, but he's had an acceptable catchup even though i don't like his vote. i can buy him living a day since i think his slank was for just today, right?

9) Tokzic - strange as ever but snap flowposting is consistent with his recent play and he isn't trying to write last-minute walls, which was something he did in last fire emblem as a wolf with me, so light town meta read

10) tiloco217 - the thing that makes me say town on tiloco is he has no reason to shake up the way he plays the game even though that's what freezin wants desperately for him to do. not w/w with freezin for sure

11) DarkManticoreX2 - town lean. responded to my post about soundwave but hasn't felt like poking out too many other angles yet, but he does have reads. this isn't a problem to me since we can only catch one wolf at a time; it's like why i don't like doing associatives early or strongly

12) blindreper1179 - is at least serving to clear himself against other people, but what he's said has not meant a lot to me otherwise

13) mellonxcollie - deep sigh. feel like much of her game here has been trying to source thoughts from other people rather than sharing her own, and her asking questions at people i would think she's better at reading bothers me

14) DaBackpack - for someone with the reputation he does, i'm surprised he's inactive as he is, and i think his mml push is ill-founded and reminds me of the kind of push yoshl would make

15) Lightknight924 - weird defense of freezin against an attack that wasn't really there, and getting low impact

16) Soundwave- - i'm still sitting on the scum side of "hard to read". if he doesn't feel like saying things about the game i'm fine lynching him

17) FreezinIce - picked out a couple posts i like already, town lean

He's very calm and collected and retains this attitude throughout his posts. A tone shift from this mode should be looked into later in the game to see if he holds it straight. The reads in this post don't feel like they were made to save any suspicion on inDheart, so he did this purely out of game solving interest. Things that stand out as being organic is his read on tiloco (mindmeld), MML, and DaBackpack.

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

this is completely fucking arbitrary

I would agree with this statement. Usually when someone tries to force a narrative (which I've been guilty of before) is to arbitrarily state behavioral patterns of a wolf, and the whole INACTIVE vs ACTIVE wolf argument is one that can be easily manipulated with a wolf team and careful planning, and could easily scream nastiness when one of them tries to force this narrative onto other players. Notice how Tokzic later justified his statement about "post big, then drop off" with just a few list of names. He's sticking to a behavioral pattern in general, rather than looking at those player's posts specifically and trying to find something. It's a cheap way to force a "good" perception on the game.

Tokzic has otherwise been fairly towny to me, but I would nominate him as a very good candidate for a deep wolf. He's playing with an enthusiasm that I haven't seen in some time. Maybe it's the weed, but I would strongly encourage any investigative ability to look into Tokzic.

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Oh at least 1. Always is.
Probably not Mellon or Roundbox as they seem like their normal town selves.
Don't know the others well enough.

Consistency is not present here with MML regarding his reads on myself and raeko. He's been quite soft toward me and a bit abrasive toward raeko, yet both of us are our "normal town selves." MML is trending back downward to :thinking: territory, which is a shame because I felt like he had a rather strong start. I don't think I would vote for him quite yet, though.

Originally Posted by tiloco217

Xiz poking his head back in was nice. tbh him playing is a pretty big part of why I decided to play so I'm probably not going to read him very well because I want him to be town. He seems towny

Here is a point of inconsistency I saw in tiloco. He attributes his signing up to the game heavily on Xiz, and gives him a very easy townread here just for... existing?

Originally Posted by tiloco217

Xiz (man I want you to be town but I ain't feelin it): You started off really strong which seemed weird but people assured me that it was normal. Then you did nothing. Then you came back with late reaction posts and they didn't seem real at all. I had a very hard time figuring out where your head was at while reading them. Going to need something better from you

^^^ from my reads list

Originally Posted by tiloco217

I'm fairly sure there is 1 mafia between Xiz and Freezin. Both seem fairly possible mafia to me but I really doubt they are mafia together from the past hour or so. I'm still leaning Xiz right now though

He went from giving him a very easy town pass to this. The skepticism is appreciated, but at the same time we see an issue crop back up immediately as he flips his read on Xiz, giving a sense of ambivalence on the whole thing.

Originally Posted by tiloco217

Like I said I don't feel comfortable killing Xiz when he didn't have enough time to respond to pressure. I waited too long to really get started on him and when I actually felt like I might get somewhere he had to leave. I'd rather keep him until tomorrow when I can read him better

tiloco latching back onto Xiz as being a non-candidate feels like his state of mind is due to some cognitive dissonance of wanting to play with Xiz and wanting to evaluate him fairly. Giving him a free pass, going to hard scumread, to saying "ehhh too early I goofed and I want there to be material here" is of grave concern.

Consider this my CONTROVERSIAL READ OF THE DAY: tiloco scummy.