[meno_rocks123]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

balance of probability suggests vigi because wolves have the ability to collaborate and 3-4 people talking about who to target might illicit details about someones meta and who they are more likely to pick out, additionally not all wolf roles are red only 1/3rd of them, so given a high-red scenario its 2/16 wolf roles and 1/16 human roles that are red.

Wrong. You're forgetting a regular old non-PR wolf. Let's assume we have 4 wolves because it's a 16 player game and that's totally reasonable. I'd wager that half of them were given PRs, so that would leave 2.67/16 players seering red and being wolves and .33-.5/16 players seering red and being human. That's 5.33-8x higher odds of a red flip being a wolf.

See how numbers can get thrown around like that? I'm really surprised you're so adamant that a vigi died last night when the game is so mystery that we could stack it in either direction by changing any of the numbers above.