TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

[Riotpolice]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

Dance

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

the funny thing is that's a better vote. wrong, but better.

KgZ what's on ur mind right now

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

BDN

[Tokzic]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

pretty sure that would be no good. #okigetitfojar relies on complete compliance from all humans. if any humans disobey, then wolves are free to betray when they're expected to trust with no repercussions.

The thing about a judgment check being added onto #okigetitfojar is that there's already no surprises with one power being granted per pairing. If someone acts differently than the plan is supposed to, it will be immediately obvious. But that shouldn't stop it from being allowed. If you decide to betray the guy you're supposed to trust, you must have pretty strong feelings that they're a wolf. This is a VERY polarizing tool for discerning player relationships.

So what I'm saying is, everyone should swear fealty to the plan, and you can go against the plan if you want, but everyone will instantly know so you better have a damn good reason to share with the class.

the whole point of #okigetitfojar is to control the dilemma choices for ALL players in order to get a high number of powers into circulation.

I understand #okigetitfojar is supposed to maximize total powers and that is a good thing. But there's no arguing that minimizing wolf powers is something that should be done as often as possible when foreseeable.

[Tokzic]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

Like you guys realize that on average we're giving wolves 2 powers per round right??

[Tokzic]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

And that the utility of one wolf power is probably a lot higher than one human power??

[Brilliant Dynamite Neon]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

As promised, I have returned. After I post an updated info center, I'm going to work on a megapost tonight, because I know everyone loooves those. But I basically agree are saying. The question that's haunting my mind is whether we go with a rigid mandated strategy that has the potential to maximize power flow and tip the game in town's favor, but stands on the shaky ground of 100% compliance and is always out there for wolves to game; or just organically trust, betray, and report according to my guidelines, which makes no guarantees of powers going one way or the other, but is practically impossible for wolves to gambit with, and compliance is not an issue. Let's think critically and work on answering that as a group. Remember we have two more days left.

[Brilliant Dynamite Neon]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

*headdesk*

But I basically agree with what V and danceguy are saying

typring is hrad

[Brilliant Dynamite Neon]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

INFO CENTER 1.2

Pairing Info So Far:
Single betrayers in purple, unaccounted in red, unlikely trusters in orange.
BDN/Vendetta (trust, nothing / trust, nothing)
KgZ/Riotpolice (trust, nothing / trust, nothing)
Charu/Psychoangel (mutual betrayal)
jrodd/TPS (betrayal, HIDING HIS POWER / trust, nothing)
Gradiant/Manti (trust, nothing / betrayal, claim: Kamikaze)
thesunfan/YMIA (trust, nothing / betrayal, claim: Bodyguard)
Guest/Tokzic (mutual betrayal)
mellon/Xiz (mutual betrayal)
lito
RSD
danceguy
clasko

Possible Powers:
Kamikaze
Vigilante Kill
Bodyguard (@YMIA: please clarify, this role has a lot of variants)
Roleblock
Jail
Masonize/Neighborize

I was going to interject something about the here, but saying it now could possibly affect the disclosure of the remaining dilemmas. What I can say for sure is that it would be helpful to have this thing finished BEFORE any lynch decisions, so red people, speak up.

A skim says jrodd should probably be the day's lynch on general principle for lying AND hiding his (previously major) power. I do have problems with other people, though, which I'll gladly go into detail in the near future. And again, I believe this info center should be finished before any conclusive decisions are made.

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

why is lying wolfy if the liar outs the lie with no pressure to do so?
why is claiming an unused power but not specifying it wolfy?

not saying I think jrodd is LOCK CLEAR, but all of the jrodd votes have been lazy (or possibly opportunistic) imo.



speaking of unnamed powers,

I trusted litodude and got a power.

[Guest15937]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

Just to throw this out: are there one-day jester powers?

[thesunfan]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

what kind of power did you get, pete?

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

Just to throw this out: are there one-day jester powers?

dunno, but I'm not trying to get lynched.

what kind of power did you get, pete?

that's not important for you to know right now.




to clarify what I said about people who voted jrodd: I don't think the votes (whichever ones have been placed by humans) were well thought out. however, in general, I do think bandwagons are productive.

BDN
basically a null read for me right now, but I want to help start another wagon. was in a trust-trust dilemma which supposedly yielded no powers. BDN, you said you'd talk about who you find suspicious. let's hear it.

[Brilliant Dynamite Neon]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

"Okay, here you go, Mister, uhh...Vendetta Danceguy. I'll dress up for you too if you want! I have no problem putting on a little show for you, sweetie – but just between you and me, I think these guys are gonna have to be denied admission..."

First of all, the dudes, both lito and runescape, need to either speak the fuck up or get replaced. I've already explained in my previous dump post why lack of contributions should be punished more than usual because there's no guarantee of the amount or quality of the powers that humans are going to have, and thus discussion more than ever creates the things we need to go off to win. The powers in this game are like somebody asleep in the backseat while the discussion and analysis are navigating a treacherous mountain road. The guy hanging off the backseat in a minor alcoholic coma isn't going to stop the TWG van from sailing off a cliff, that's all on the guys in the front. You have to be those guys as much as possible. I think this day is a little too early to start pushing for lynches on lurkers/fluffbunnies/non-entities, but surely only a little. If this keeps up on subsequent days, I'll be happy to remove any guilt you may feel from neglecting the day game – hopefully bringing your guilt over killing our compatriots into sharp focus.

Second of all, I like how the town is thinking so far regarding partners who claim a mutual trust, yet both claim to have gotten nothing. This was the thing I was withholding mention of in my updated info center post, but now that only one pair remains (that of RSD and our dearly departed clasko) I doubt it will hurt anything; it was probably already evident from the "unlikely trusters" thing I added. Unlikely trusters should definitely be in a preferential lynch pool, perhaps even more than those who claim a major power, depending on the situation. See V@12 for why. Although I'm pretty sure it's actually a 25% chance, the fact still stands that these claimers are more likely to be lying, and it's way too easy of a cover for a scheming wolf.

While we're on the topic of the dilemmas, allow me to reformat and reiterate one of my previous posts since no one seems to be playing attention to it:

I basically agree with what V and danceguy are saying.

The question that's haunting my mind is:
* Do we go with a rigid mandated strategy that has the potential to maximize power flow and tip the game in town's favor, but stands on the shaky ground of 100% compliance and is always out there for wolves to game;
* Or, do we just organically trust, betray, and report according to my guidelines, which makes no guarantees of powers going one way or the other, but is practically impossible for wolves to gambit with, and compliance is not an issue.

Let's think critically and work on answering that AS A GROUP. Remember we have two more days left.

Now to address V's concerns:

I barely got through everything Manti said before I knew it was somehow gameable by wolves. I know the problem trying to be solved is complicated enough that one can make a pretty quick Bayesian inference that a publicly stated strategy will have a loophole of some sort, even if I can't find it immediately.

This, this, THIS. So fucking much. A TWG lesson I learned the hard way: never, EVER assume wolves are not smart enough for anything. If some strategy is made public, the wolves are going to try to counter it from the moment they see it, and it is always possible that they may find some way to break it. I'm not saying that it's a total bust. I personally don't like it, but we need to hear from everyone before we do this, and these risks should be taken into account.

Uhh what. This is weird shit. Why does the powers being equal matter that much towards the thoughts you might have? And what the fuck does that have to do with catching wolves? I get you might also be including manti's plan in there but uhh it's weird that you would engage in this running-in-place type of post about either of those things if you're still voting Manti...

All I see from you is restructuring summative statements as though they are observations while you are going to delay making any sort of real analysis.

First off, I'm not a very good player and I feel like I always have trouble putting thoughts into words, and it's a problem which is exacerbated by TWG more often than not. As is evident here, it takes me hours to do what most players do in a matter of minutes. That's just how I roll.

Of course, my overarching question is, "what about that post makes you think I'm a wolf?" But I'll break it down into smaller ones.

My reasoning for suspecting Manti is coming up next, and you should read it. This post is my long awaited "real analysis". So with that out of the way, here is what remains:
* I had already stated distrust of Manti, so why was that post and suspecting/voting for Manti such a contradiction for you? I do not understand what that post changed to make Manti "off limits" for me all of a sudden.
* What advantages would there be to switch my vote off him right away? I wasn't sure who to vote for next as I did not read in detail until later.
* Do you find my reasoning faulty, and how?

Why Manti and his plan rub me the wrong way

I don't like how he's been saying things that seem geared to absolve him of being a wolf, but really don't.

First, he is obviously telling the truth about betraying Gradiant and having a power. But there's no way to know if he's telling the truth about the power he got. Think about it. Kamikaze power is probably the easiest thing for a wolf to fakeclaim, especially Night 1, because the chances they will be targeted by a human kill, of all things, is almost zero. There is no real burden of proof they have to live up to. Given the vigi last night, it's definitely not something to ignore.

[The implication that I knew I would get a power] doesn't really matter though. The only reason you would be pressing that issue is if you thought Gradiant and I were wolves together. Seeing as how there is no OOT talk for any team during twilight your point is moot.

WRONG. Wolves all know eachother to be trustworthy, and if wolves were paired, trusting gave any wolf pairs the highest chance of getting powers. So while possible, it seems statistically unlikely that a wolf pairing would result in a mutual betrayal. And the second-to-last sentence just seems kind of weaselly to me. It seems to suggest that there's something inherently wrong with the idea that you and Gradiant are wolves, which there isn't. It's a possibility that needs to be considered like anything else.

Fuck this. I'm getting too tired to look shit up so I'm just gonna wing it.
IIRC Manti only considered the possibility of exceptions to his rules after valid objections from other players came up. It makes me think of the possibility that Manti might be a wolf who already knows the best way to exploit the system (after all, he created it) and is just appeasing; offering options to those who doubt him while still fitting within his framework.

And keep in mind, even if the plan is not significantly gamed, and it IS the best way to go and makes wolves' lives harder, it proves exactly jack shit about his humanity, especially in a game like this where we don't know the score. I remember plenty of times when wolves "proved" their humanity by engaging in seemingly counterproductive behaviors, and then went on to win. Hell, I've tried to do this once before, so I wouldn't put it past someone with years of experience on me to be able to do it well. He can be quite dangerous when he wants to, and I've seen him ride the glorious leader position to wolf victory a few times, so color me properly paranoid.

On j-rodd

to clarify what I said about people who voted jrodd: I don't think the votes (whichever ones have been placed by humans) were well thought out.

Really? I felt that a lot of things about his play have been covered by others satisfactorily. Hopefully this is thought out enough for you.

Since this is an NOC game, my gut is stuck on "Lynch All Liars" and says that jrodd needs to be lynched, and then there's Tokzic@164. But I think I see why suspicion of him has died down for others. I may be wrong, but I'm not sure what valid reasons a human would have for a con like his; thinking critically about this though, this is still a very mysterious mystery game, so I'm going ease off jrodd for now, as the probability that I am wrong is reasonably high. Another thing I want to note is that, by revealing, he's taken his partner, TPS, out of the "unlikely trusters" lynch pool. I could see how this could be taken as a pro-town move by giving us a narrower set of targets. Food for thought indeed, but there's always the possibility that TPS is his wolf buddy and this is a distancing play designed to head off any further suspicion of TPS - who I know to be very dangerous as a wolf. I will remain vigilant.

One last thing @jrodd himself. With your "can't die" post, are you claiming Lynchproof?

--------------

Final thought: Real life shit did have a hand in activity, V, but most of the time delaying my actual analysis is just due to me being pathologically lazy and easily distracted. I'm going to try to hold myself to a higher standard from here on.

That standard does NOT include staying up till 5 in the morning. Will clarify stuff tomorrow if needed.

I don't exactly feel like any of the major power holders are squeaky clean at this point, so including all of them, we have a preferred lynch pool of 7. Which is pretty noice for day one. Here they are in rough order of how down I am to lynch:

jrodd
Manti
Riotpolice
KgZ
YMIA
Vendetta
Me.

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CV: Christmas in the clink

Since this is an NOC game, my gut is stuck on "Lynch All Liars" and says that jrodd needs to be lynched

I like the concept of lynch all liars, but it's not an established metagame strategy here. there are people in our player pool who like to gambit as humans. it's been shown in previous games and in non-game threads. I'm looking more for lies which I think would particularly benefit wolves, and lies which are exposed unwillingly (via cardflip, counterclaim, etc.).

and then there's Tokzic@164

are ineffective plays inherently wolfy?

thinking critically about this though, this is still a very mysterious mystery game, so I'm going ease off jrodd for now, as the probability that I am wrong is reasonably high

odds of hitting a wolf are low no matter who you're targeting, though. this kinda looks like backpedaling.