TWG CXXXIII: Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

I wonder if dbp is the Take Down wolf.

What a fascinating non-sequitur musing! Why didn't you wonder it about CK who you ended up voting at phase end??

[psychoangel691]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

Seriously though Red, I'm sorry you're dealing with all that. I was really just thinking you were dealing with flooding around town, not that it actually hit your home.

[psychoangel691]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

The storm here is finally quieting down so I'm off for the night.

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

I mean isn't it the fucking most amazing coincidence that plop moves from not wanting to lynch DBP because it doesn't give enough information, to then agreeing with the momentum on DBP, randomly wondering if he is the takedown wolf (what a phenomenal fucking read!), and ending the phase voting for cold kitten who had no curiosity about being the takedown wolf?

[Red Blaster]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

Also, Jub for this strange post and earlier suspicions. I want to hear more from you.

I do agree that that post is literally the most odd thing certainly this phase, if not in this entire game.
It kinda devalues his reads from having some merits into something more akin to "I'm only posting this to appear human and gain my pass into D2"

I'd kinda like an explanation of that post juber.

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

I still just don't fucking understand what voting pattern in the thread up to that point would have suggested that DBP was the takedown wolf

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

Well, I mean, except for plop's voting pattern

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

Am I literally the only person who gives a shit about this? Am I missing some sort of critical moment in the thread that makes sense of this?

[roundbox]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

I have a feeling I'll be hit with one of the wolf night actions tonight, and I'll either be a mute or a dead body. Personally, one would make more sense than the other.

Here's my (hopefully not) last thoughts.

Plop's situation is a trick one to dissect. There are a few scenarios to look at and consider before we instantly crucify him tomorrow. These scenarios are if A) The wolves know who their power roles are, or B) The wolves only know their partners, and not their power roles, C) Plop made a crazy guess.

Let's look at situation A. Assuming plop is a wolf, hinting that DBP might be the takedown is good for the wolves in small ways. One, it can scare off potential voters, and two, it helps in his case of setting up a mislynch (his candidate was CK). While this may sound fine and dandy, what would the purpose be of getting him outed so early to the wolves? If anything, the longer the wolves are alive the better to seek parity. Outing him like this is completely baffling and idiotic from the wolf perspective. Why make town parity that much harder? Yes, they do take out a village, but the percentage of wolf:town drops to 21.4%.
Not only that, but their chances of hitting a town PR is also statistically low. Risky and dumb move.
For these reasons, I feel the cons outweigh the pros for situation A.

Okay, how about situation B. Assuming plop is a wolf and didn't know of other wolf roles, this would be also plainly moronic to try and name it. Why would a wolf try to ping out other wolf PRs on day0? Was he trying to get a reaction from other wolves to see if they would confirm it? Was the initial call about DBP possibly being a takedown the call? DBP was sure as hell not going to with his inactivity, so maybe he was aiming for another wolf to answer? I wonder...



Does this quote mean anything? Is storn confirming he's NOT the takedown? This is an interesting thing to consider, but I wouldn't convict storn solely off of this. However, this is something to ponder in the coming phases depending on flips and cop results.
Did plop+other wolves see DBP as getting nuked for sure this phase? It's hard to tell. If I were in wolf shoes, I wouldn't risk losing a wolf in the first phase for reasons listed at the end of situation A. It just seems strange wolves would bus him so fast.
I feel like this is more probable than situation A, but I'm not saying this is what happened.

And situation C, plop just got a lucky guess. Considering the DBP wolf meta, inactivity seems to be the bread and butter. It's a shitty brand of butter, but hell, it was enough to incriminate him this game. There was a 25% chance he got the role right, but why would he select take down in particular? Yes, it comes with a death backlash, but the town objective is just to kill a wolf SOLELY based on wolf activity. Why was take down even a factor? What if DBP was roleblocker, and plop said "What if he was the roleblocker?" This just doesn't have the same effect.
At the same time, would plop really willingly put himself in a situation like this? It's a seriously clairvoyant far cry to peg not only the wolf but the role as well. This is not impossible, so shrugging off this possibility would be senseless.
This is practically on equal footing with situation B.

I tried to make sense of the situation here. I know you argued that busing the takedown early and hitting a village is a probable bus, so the situation B might stand out more to you.

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

You don't believe any wolves might have distance voted DBP?

[Red Blaster]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

I still just don't fucking understand what voting pattern in the thread up to that point would have suggested that DBP was the takedown wolf

My thing is, if Plop was a wolf he could've, most likely would've, said nothing and voted elsewhere. Why would wolf plop announce his partners role? Also didn't someone bring it up before plop? I swear choof brought it up sarcastically but I could be wrong.

Idk it just doesn't make sense for Plop to bring up his partners role in my mind.

Or am I missing something else here?

[roundbox]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

Storn is the only one I felt could have distance voted in that pool.

[roundbox]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

In this long-winded post:

http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/vbz/showpost.php?p=4319618&postcount=919

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

Plop brought it up first.

If wolves don't know each other's roles and are caught up in a lynch where they are distance voting, (i.e. The lynch is probably going to happen) they would like to try to vote their partner. Cautioning your team mates would be important.

If there were 5 votes on the lynch, the fourth vote was wolf, and a town switched to a null the wolf dies. If a dumb wolf busses DBP without thinking about how he was the takedown you again lose two wolves.

There might have been a real need to caution especially if a wolf had mistakenly gone hard on DBP to distance earlier in the phase thinking the DBP lynch wouldn't happen and would look bad for wavering, and it was clear that they couldn't pile their three votes on a town to escape the lynch. The take-down wolf introduces a great deal of potential risk and fucking up in that situation would cost you the game, if you are in the situation where you are about to lose DBP (the one that actually happened) you're obviously going to consider damage control in order to make sure a bad situation doesn't become worse.

[storn42]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

What a fascinating non-sequitur musing! Why didn't you wonder it about CK who you ended up voting at phase end??

can i wonder? can i wonder? can i wonder? I wonder if CK is the........

CONFUSIONIST!!!

HA! lets see that one be right :P