TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Have you tried doing an update on your reads, factoring that DBP is now active?

I'm town reading what he's been doing this phase.

I prefer to ignore his first phase because honestly not much happened that matters for his slot.

The main reason I wanted to vote him D0 was because of activity.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

I mean, I could push him for saying that FFA was a hot take in theory.

[Shadow_God_10]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Raeko is my top town

DBP is probably town based on past experiences with him and the gut feeling I have from his posting

T-Force... I'm not sure... I'm trying to not let my personal experiences with him affect his alignment in this game and I'm struggling a bit, so I might have to sheep a little off you guys

If FG dances around a little more, I'm more convinced she's a wolf

I don't know how to read Plop/Sunfan/YoshL

I'm less suspicious of Haku, I think

I forgot who else is in this game

[Shadow_God_10]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Oh Freezin' I'm sorry I forgot about you!

I'm gut reading town lean here.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

I mean, I could push him for saying that FFA was a hot take in theory.

I kinda consider this NAI because you didn't provide explanations as to why so, I have nothing to point at.

It is what it is.

[Shadow_God_10]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

DBP now that you're caught up, are you working on reads?

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

I don't know how to read Plop/Sunfan/YoshL

Town Plop is more pro actively trying to solve things. This Plop has been quite the minimalist for little reason.

I also loss a wolf Plop before with the exact same pattern so, everything checks for me in that regard.

Sunfan still has a decent chance to be town. I would call this Sunfan meta the "off day Sunfan" where his attention is not fully here, but he's still trying to play when he can.

@Yoshl: I'm mostly interested to hear anything from you that has nothing to do with me. I think this will help a lot.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

So, yeah. If you guys don't want to vote FG/T-Force, I consider Plop a solid 3rd wagon.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

I think {Plop/FG} is more likely than {T-Force/FG}.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Plop/T-Force is also possible in the world where I'm wrong about FG.

[Shadow_God_10]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Why do I feel myself agreeing with Haku here?

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Are you and raeko wolfing together? I think you might be...

Example of minimalistic posting ^

There's no why.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Xiz and freezin, what bothers you about the t-force train? Or were you two expressing more confusion than dislike earlier?

This is also working against the T-Force/Plop world.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

At this juncture I'm almost 100% sure FG/T-Force is W/T or T/W. Admittedly, Haku has been extremely distracting and confusing because of his tangling himself into this conflict. Haku seems to have been roughly 50/50 flip-flopping on FG and T-Force, which would indicate to me a confused town, as opposed to a wolf trying to preemptively position himself advantageously.

It's time for bed now, but as you have probably divined, last phase's EoD is actually extremely dense with information. I think the key to nailing this phase lies in untangling FG/T-Force/Haku/Plop's clusterfuck during that time.

I'll do some heavier digging tomorrow, but remember that FFA/Ulli ended up as T/T. This makes the formation and dissipation of the T-Force wagon extremely valuable to explore. Wolves really have nothing to lose with a T/T wagon, especially on D0, so you should probably observe a lack of panic or drive from certain (wolf) players.

As soon as the T-Force wagon became a likely outcome, these certain players might have appeared more active or engaged, because they suddenly were tasked with defense. In particular, I think Plop fits this bill, with his "leaving the seat warm" on the FFA wagon, as if to siphon votes away from T-Force (and also possibly away from Ulli, in order to pile onto FFA as a way of risk management re: T-Force wagon).

This is partly for my records too, but I'm learning towards wolves in T-Force and Plop. Funnygurl voting for Plop and then onto Ulli is bizarre, and I see the interpretation that FG wanted to protect FFA in order to groom him as a pocket opportunity, but remember that the wolf team is just that-- a team. I don't see FG making such a maneuver on the fly for the sole purpose of optimizing her own long-term status. I'm more inclined to think that wolves would have some very basic notion of long-term objectives, and FG specifically being in the mindset of "well, I can pocket FFA later if I move my vote around!" isn't a likely explanation for that behavior, especially when you consider that in a CFD scenario, there are bigger fish to fry (and keep alive).

I'm inclined to take FG's explanations at face-value here. The wagons were clearly manifesting into FFA/Ulli, and from an intelligence perspective, town FG would stand to gain more by FFA being alive later on, instead of potentially being forced to resolve an unreadable Ulli.

With this in mind, Plop is very likely not a wolf partner with FG. I don't think they're T/T either. T-Force's EoD (and, honestly, D0) behavior is indeed passive, just as he said. But when EoD rolled around, he never really pushed in any direction. It felt like a lack of concern about the outcome--- because, as we know now, the wagons were T/T. It wasn't until T-Force himself came under fire that he started mobilizing more, specifically for self-defense. Plop, whether wittingly or not, threw T-Force a life preserver and distracted the rest of us from this conflict. If I remember correctly, Plop was directly talking to Haku when he made that post about "keeping the seat warm", which indicates to me that Haku/Plop are not W/W either.

These four characters form a system of equations that, in my opinion, give us AT LEAST 1 wolf, with the potential of UP TO 2 wolves. Current mindset is T-Force and Plop. I might be wrong on some details, so I definitely want to reread certain particular passages when I have a clear mind tomorrow.

I heavily encourage the rest of you to at least think of this phase in terms of a T-Force/FG dichotomy.

[Shadow_God_10]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Hmmm.... That's a good take DBP... and it's noted