The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

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  • ryanisadouche
    FFR Player
    • Aug 2005
    • 666

    #766
    Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

    Originally posted by Arbitrage
    ryanisadouche: It's all about variance.

    also BASSSSS
    but its not about variance. There's no way to predict or control the system by varying your bets, your just as likely to win the small ones and lose the big ones.

    also HUNTERRRRR
    ...starting up again

    Public AAA #370 - evil approaches
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    • ryanisadouche
      FFR Player
      • Aug 2005
      • 666

      #767
      Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

      I would love to hear you, or rubix, or anyone try to explain to me in a PM how they think they can "beat the system". Unless there's an actual glitch somewhere, then no matter how much you bet last time, whether you won or lost, your next bet will be 50/50.
      ...starting up again

      Public AAA #370 - evil approaches
      Tier Points - 329 (Tier 4)
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      Worst Non-AAA - AIM Anthem(668)
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      • hoochan
        woah shrooms
        • Nov 2005
        • 3838

        #768
        Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

        Originally posted by ryanisadouche
        stuff
        That's not how gambling works. There's always 1 loser and 1 winner. Barely anyone ends up even (in this case even is .98).

        EDIT- You can't beat the system but you can gamble intelligently where you win (net gain, not win every bet) almost every time unless you are having extremely bad luck.

        Comment

        • ryanisadouche
          FFR Player
          • Aug 2005
          • 666

          #769
          Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

          Originally posted by hoochan
          you can gamble intelligently
          o hi gamblers fallacy.

          Originally posted by hoochan
          Barely anyone ends up even
          Over a smaller sample space, no, but as you keep playing your results get closer to what they should be,"breaking even at 0.98" as you put it, which really means you are losing.

          It's easy to say "thats not true" but no one's tried explaining themself yet. Probability and gambling has always fascinated me and i know i'm right here.
          Last edited by ryanisadouche; 07-15-2008, 07:54 PM.
          ...starting up again

          Public AAA #370 - evil approaches
          Tier Points - 329 (Tier 4)
          Best Non-AAA - Schmollbluk (rank 26)
          Worst Non-AAA - AIM Anthem(668)
          average rank - 109

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          • PlayTrumpet
            Lamingtons.
            • May 2007
            • 590

            #770
            Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

            Yay, finally pulled myself out of the biggest loser top 10 list. ^_^
            HIGH-FIVING A MILLION ANGELS!
            sigpic

            Comment

            • heyitsmee
              FFR Player
              • Sep 2006
              • 2042

              #771
              Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

              if you will add a free bet amount i will be able to use the double up strategy like this

              1000 - lose
              3000 - lose
              6000 - lose
              12000 - lose
              26000 - lose
              50000 - lose
              125000 - lose
              250000 - lose
              450000 - lose
              1mil - lose
              2mil - lose

              with a free bet amount if you had about 400k to start with you could have about 9 bets to double back up to the original amount

              and if every thing goes normally you would slowly get credits

              but with fixed amounts the jump from 1000 to 5000 to 10k 50k and the maximum of 100k breaks this strategy

              Comment

              • hoochan
                woah shrooms
                • Nov 2005
                • 3838

                #772
                Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

                Originally posted by ryanisadouche
                o hi gamblers fallacy.



                Over a smaller sample space, no, but as you keep playing your results get closer to what they should be,"breaking even at 0.98" as you put it, which really means you are losing.

                It's easy to say "thats not true" but no one's tried explaining themself yet. Probability and gambling has always fascinated me and i know i'm right here.
                Uh no. That is in no way gambler's fallacy because I never said anything about sequences...

                Also, no. Barely anyone breaks even. The experimental probability of someone getting a 1:1 win:lose ratio is inaccurate because everyone knows that that never happens. In these situations, human instinct would prevail over the math.

                Comment

                • ryanisadouche
                  FFR Player
                  • Aug 2005
                  • 666

                  #773
                  Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

                  edit - at heyitsmee


                  Strategies like that always fail in the long run. Very similiar strategies have been formed for games like roulette.

                  Sure, it'll work almost every time. But the huge risk outweighs the tiny profit by a mile. It's inevitable that you'll eventually hit the unlikely but very possible losing streak, and lose it all, making your tiny 1k wins add up to nothing.
                  ...starting up again

                  Public AAA #370 - evil approaches
                  Tier Points - 329 (Tier 4)
                  Best Non-AAA - Schmollbluk (rank 26)
                  Worst Non-AAA - AIM Anthem(668)
                  average rank - 109

                  Comment

                  • ryanisadouche
                    FFR Player
                    • Aug 2005
                    • 666

                    #774
                    Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

                    Originally posted by hoochan
                    Uh no. That is in no way gambler's fallacy because I never said anything about sequences...

                    Also, no. Barely anyone breaks even. The experimental probability of someone getting a 1:1 win:lose ratio is inaccurate because everyone knows that that never happens. In these situations, human instinct would prevail over the math.
                    Well you said "gamble intelligently", which assumes you think you have some sort of influence over the outcome.

                    And i believe that almost anyone would confirm that a 1:1 win:lose ration is VERY accurate. It would take thousands and thousands of games before you start to see it, but it's definitly there.

                    And I'm really not sure what your getting at, but for your sake I hope you don't ever go to a casino with real money and try to win on "human instinct".
                    ...starting up again

                    Public AAA #370 - evil approaches
                    Tier Points - 329 (Tier 4)
                    Best Non-AAA - Schmollbluk (rank 26)
                    Worst Non-AAA - AIM Anthem(668)
                    average rank - 109

                    Comment

                    • sarahxjane
                      FFR Veteran
                      • Aug 2005
                      • 2109

                      #775
                      Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

                      I had 30k given to me, since I had like 10 left.

                      I was stupid, and gambled it.

                      Now I have 9 left.
                      Originally posted by Tasselfoot
                      whatever you do... don't **** a walros.
                      Originally posted by funmonkey54
                      *knock knock*
                      *opens door*
                      Hello sir, I am a representative from eBay.
                      Um, ok. May I help you?
                      Yes, I am going to need some more information. What is your social security, work hours, sperm count, sexual orientation, and hours of absence from your home?

                      as of December 11th 2009.
                      Proud One Hander! 113 AAAs & 295 Full Combos

                      Comment

                      • bill_clinton
                        FFR Player
                        • Aug 2005
                        • 438

                        #776
                        Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

                        I was passing out 100k's to people for free, because I was rich as ****.

                        Now I wish I didint do that.
                        Hi.

                        Comment

                        • Tasselfoot
                          Retired BOSS
                          FFR Simfile Author
                          • Jul 2003
                          • 25185

                          #777
                          Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

                          bill was BALLIN'.
                          RIP

                          Comment

                          • 7thJosephSign
                            FFR Veteran
                            • Jun 2005
                            • 331

                            #778
                            Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

                            Well i had an awesome day today!!!

                            Comment

                            • LoneW0lf
                              ʕ·͡ᴥ·ʔ Bears ʕ·͡ᴥ·ʔ
                              • May 2008
                              • 1800

                              #779
                              Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

                              Originally posted by 7thJosephSign
                              Well i had an awesome day today!!!
                              yes
                              and you bragged

                              and bragged


                              and bragged

                              lol nice increase man :P
                              I hate my name.

                              Comment

                              • 7thJosephSign
                                FFR Veteran
                                • Jun 2005
                                • 331

                                #780
                                Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

                                at least i didn't post it in the Brag Board XD

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